To me, more worrisome going into the playoffs is that our records against teams >=.500 is 15-17 (8-8 home, 7-9 road). Our good W-L record comes from beating the bad teams. We won games we should. That's good. But we are iffy against good teams. The bad news is, all teams we are going to play in the playoffs are good teams.
The OP has valid concerns. There are also some valid responses to those concerns ... the most obvious of which is injury/health. The Rockets haven't been decimated by injury but they've had guys in and out sporadically throughout. And they are definitely playing on tired legs. Anderson gets ar est and comes back to hit 11-20 threes. Hmmm... perhaps there's a correlation there. Which is why I hate all the "MVP" things James has said. The no rest needed. The winning is important. If he wants to comment on the MVP it should be simple - "I've done my best to get this team to the 3rd best record in the regular season over the course of 82 games, and have put up a crazy, amazing, statistical season and whatever happens, happens. Now its on to the playoffs, where the real MVPs are made". Instead, because of his stupid no rest comments, no one in the organization has the balls to tell him he should be resting. I mean is it remotely possible that the fact that everyone shot better earlier in the season just might be correlated to fresher legs? Lol. In the second half of the season the Nene in/out has hurt us. They're 2-7 in their last 9 games without him (after starting great with that strategy). The Clint injury is interesting. They were playing great before he got injured, continued to play great while he was injured with Trez beasting, then started playing poorly when he came back (1/17). The Williams acquisition is interesting. He hasn't really meshed well, even though some games he can be ridiculous "on". I really don't care to criticize MDA much. I do think he has struggled a bit with rotations and playing time decisions in light of the injuries and the Williams acquisition. He hasn't been 100% clear whether he wanted Gordon to start or come off the bench (my view is Gordon should have never started once it was clear his role was off the bench, regardless of need from injury). He doesn't really know what he wants to do with Trez. And, probably because of lack of practice time, he hasn't quite figured out the best way to utilize Williams. On top of all that, the most troubling thing about the second half performance isn't the record, but the 4th quarter performance. They've consistently blown leads (12 point lead against Detroit, both games against the Spurs, the Blazers after fighting back they get blitzed on a 2 minute run, the most recent Golden State game, the Hawks game they lost by 5 after getting outscored 40-22 in the 4th...). Not that other teams don't have the occasional 4th quarter issues, but this has been way too often for the Rockets of late. And in general, as we've all seen, they get worse as the game goes on. So they've gotten worse as the season goes on, and get worse as the game goes on. And Harden reverts way too much to iso Harden ball in the 4th and crunch time. I am very fine and VERY in favor of Harden being in charge in the 4th, down the stretch. I've seen enough of Ariza, or Gordon trying to be the playmaker down the stretch to know that **** doesn't work either. But they could at least still get a little ball movement and little creativity to their top of key PnRs in the 4th. What happened to Harden in the post, where he's good, either one on one or with an interesting post screen? What happened to the Harden stop and pop free throw line jumper, where he was clutch? None of the above addresses defense, rebounding, which are clearly issues. I just don't think those are that fixable at this point in the season, or at any point in the season. The motto of this season, beginning with the MDA hire, has to be "embrace what you are" and what they are is a team that struggles in those areas and just won't get better, but could still make a VERY deep playoff run if they embrace what they are. The bright side? PLEASE rest your starters, including Harden (who shouldn't play AT ALL) for the final game. Everyone but Dekker seems to be finally healthy (knock on wood). No back to back in the playoffs, and probably a couple of 2 day breaks. The Rockets seem to play well against the Thunder, as do most good NBA teams - the Thunder seem to have feasted on mediocre competition of late. While there's a few games you can point to that the Rockets should have lost (crazy TWolves comeback for example), there's plenty more that they really really should have won, and we'd be singing ad different tune. If they get past the Thunder relative easily, the Spurs are an incredibly hard out... BUT better than seeing GSW in 2nd round, AND I think the Grizzlies are the best 5-8 matchup to give the Spurs trouble, AND I think the Jazz/Clippers are the best 4/5 matchup to give GSW trouble in round 2, AND despite the 1-3 record, the Rockets have played the Spurs incredibly well this season. /long post!!!
Exactly Most nights, we're not as good as some here seem to think we are. But most nights, we're nowhere near as lacking as others think. That 5-games-over-.500 record we struggled to over the last half of the season should still make us good enough to handle any of the #5-#8 seeds in the playoffs. If things gel even slightly (and consistently) we can do some damage. Regardless of what happens during the playoffs, though, we're still an All-Star and another good defender away from being a solid, dependable contender. But the pieces are nearly there. A couple of key additions and a tweak or two and we can be among the elite.
We will have a shooter's chance in these playoffs. Nothing more than that. We don't have the talent (yet) to beat teams in multiple ways. If our shooters get going, we will look really scary. If they are off, we will struggle in every game no matter the matchup. Just trying to set expectations. I hate admitting that, but I'm realistic about this team. We are not going to shut down teams on D, not going to pound them inside (Nene can have his moments but not near enough), and we don't have enough consistent scorers to give teams problems from the wings and/or paint. I think our chances come down to Gordon, Lou, and Ryan playing at a consistent level. They don't need to be shooting lights out, but they will HAVE to be productive. Can't rely on James all series to make this team go, others have got to do something.
Great post. It is not easy to "turn it on" when you don't have good habits. We certainly DO NOT have good habits, especially on defense. More effort will help, but it won't fix everything. I hope I am dead wrong here, but I am extremely worried about getting absolutely embarrassed in the playoffs. I am really counting on our veterans to bring the intensity. Bev/Ariza/Gordon/Ryno/Lou/Nene... The guys that have been there before need to bring the pain. Harden needs to be completely unselfish. If he allows Roberson and those boys to key in on him we are toast. MOVE THE BALL. MAKE SIMPLE PLAYS. I am dreading the Harden 14 turnover game on live tv... :/
Our record against teams over .500 is actually 18-21. Our record against teams below .500 is 36-6. On Jan 10, we were 12-8 against teams with winning records and 19-1 against teams with losing records. Since then we've gone 6-13 against teams with winning records and 17-5 against teams with losing records. So you can see some fatigue setting in with the slippage against bad teams. However, Harden's numbers have remained fairly consistent except for the fact that he's losing over an assist a game in the last 40 games over the first 40 games. That may partly be fatigue/injury on our shooters. However we traded Brewer for Lou. So there should have been some offset there. So fatigue doesn't explain everything. The top seven defensive teams in the league according to points given up per possession are in descending order: Spurs Warriors Jazz Hawks Heat Pistons Grizzlies Our record against those teams for the season is 6-15. So these 7 teams, which are 23% of the league, account for over 55% of our losses. Broken down by half season, we were 4-3 against these teams through the first 40 games. We were 2-10 against these teams the last 41 games. Conclusion: 1. Good defenses make adjustments and have adjusted defensively against us. They know who we are. They know what's coming. And they've determined the strategies that water down our offensive efficiency. 2. We have not adjusted well to the defensive adjustments against us. The OP is exactly right here. We don't have anything else to go to when our shooters are defended. Our offense is not designed for them to drive, kick, and cut. Our offense is one-dimensional simplistic. If the shooter is covered, get the ball back out to Harden and Harden either goes one-on-one or he tries to create the second time in PnR or PnP. Most of you don't want to read this but it's the truth. When defenses with good big paint defenders clamp down on our shooters and force James to try to beat them by himself we lose. We have no other primary playmakers to go to. Harden's and the team's shooting efficiency either falls through the floor or his and the team's turnovers go through the roof or both. Because we are either flinging up contested shots or we are winding the shot clock into a bad pass turnover. This is what our season comes down to. Second round exit. The only chance we have to get to the conference Finals is for Kawhi to get injured or for Memphis to pull off a stunner against the Spurs. Because if we face a healthy Spurs team in the second round, they're gonna stomp out our one-dimensional offense by defending the shooters and running Harden into Kawhi and the bigs. Because we have nobody else that can make a play, create a mismatch, and create offense for the other guys. And we've known all this all season.
You wrote all that just to say what you've been saying all season long which is Rockets are going nowhere until they get a primary playmaker (Rubio) to move Harden off the ball and a defensive big (Thong Maker). You must love hearing yourself talk
when the rockets face the spurs in the 2nd round I'll bet you or anyone else the rockets will win the series. Tipjar or whatever
Ha. #fakenews. Simply not true. 1. Do we have enough playmaking to get past the Spurs if we face them in the second round? 2. Do we have enough paint defense to get past the Spurs if we face them in the second round? Spoiler Will you answer these questions truthfully? Spoiler Ha! Spoiler No!
The poor and inconsistent 3pt shooting percentage decline since December is worrisome. This team will rise and fall because of it. It was built for a high ceiling. But if the Rockets get cold, a low floor. Lets hope for some good shooing.
You do know that his shot only fell off after he injured his wrist right ? in March he shot 45 percent. In February he shot 37 percent from three....then hurt his wrist. Prior to the wrist injury, 10 of the past 11 games he shot 44 percent or better. As usual some people read way too much in to it.
A reminder of the last time D'Antoni faced a one man team. They were down 1-3 in the first round. We don't have enough talent to dig ourselves out of any hole.
You know, if this didn't involve my team, I'd take you up on it to the tune of $5,000 to the tipjar. But making a deal like that would force me to sit through the playoffs actually wanting my team to lose to the pleasure of making you ante up the 5 grand. I can't do that. I'd rather be wrong about my team than to play this game with you. And my heart wants me to be wrong. But my eyes and my brain tell me I'm not. I would derive no pleasure out of you dumping 5 grand into the tip jar. Because my team and us fans world be the real losers. So, no thanks to the offer. I cannot bet on my team to lose.....ever. But if you feel so strongly that they're going to beat the Spurs in the second round of the 2017 playoffs then put your money where your fingers are. Drop 5 large on a Vegas ticket, take a pic, and post it here hotshot. Remember you said you'd bet me or anyone else, tip jar or whatever. Keep your word.
I'm sorry, read too much into what? I stated a fact, I didnt say his wrist wasnt hurt or that there wasnt a reason. Whether or not Harden has a reason to be having off-nights shooting, theyre STILL off-nights shooting. Once again, posters seeing what they want to see... lol. To me Harden, while he has moments of negative impact (see only recent shooting, and my god the turnovers) is the furnace of this team, and I will hardly ever "blame" him for losses because unlike our other players, IF he is not shooting well, he makes it up in other ways (assists, FTs, etc). Mentioning that he has been off lately is hardly an overreaction or an unwarranted comment. If he focuses a little more and shoots less 3s, we will be in good shape.
