There's been so much hoopla around Andrew Miller since the Indians' playoff run, and of course we have our own version of Miller in Chris Devenski. And I admit, I was a bit peeved this offseason that Devo didn't get a more legitimate shot to make the rotation. That being said, last night (and all of last season) we saw how valuable Devo is in the "do everything" bullpen role. I'm wondering, just how valuable is he? Is he as valuable to our team as, say Collin McHugh or Charlie Morton? As valuable as McCullers? I think he's easily the most valuable bullpen arm we have, including Giles. But I'm curious what you all think, and if you guys think Devo is more valuable to us in the pen or in the starting rotation.
Obviously small sample size this season, but there was nothing to suggest last night that he hasn't just picked up right where he left off last season. And last season he was the second most valuable Astros pitcher (2.8 fangraphs WAR to McHugh's 3.0 in ~80 less IP). If he can continue to generate that level of production in the pen then I'd keep him there. He may well be a slightly better starter than Fiers, Martes or Peacock but he's likely WAY more valuable than them in the pen. It's a short list of guys who can dominate for multiple innings in relief.
Among pitchers who pitched at least 100 innings last year, he was the 2nd best pitcher per inning second only to Kershaw. He's legit.
It will be interesting how this year plays out. Will we move him into a more typical role, or will we keep him as a utility high leverage pitcher. Over the second half of last year, he was routinely going 2, a few time even more. It projected out to about 130 innings over 162. That's not close to the 200 a good starter will get, but you have to consider level of dominance, and that most of his innings are high leverage. If he can do what he did over the second half of last year for a full season, I think he would be more valuable than almost all other relievers, and more valuable than 75% of the starters in the league. 2 of our 4 big guns in the pen were unavailable last night, but it was like we had all 4 because one of them is able to cover multiple innings on demand.
They played a 13 inning game. For today's game he is the only pitcher that won't be able to pitch. They got through it without having to use Giles and Gregerson. For most teams, he did the job of three relievers last night. Assuming he has a similar season to last year, he will be incredibly valuable. Assuming he continues that performance throughout the near future, he will be preeminent among pitchers who change the salary structure for non starters/closers.
From ESPN today: The most valuable reliever in baseball: I told you the Astros were the most fun team in baseball! After the Mariners scored in the top of the 13th (but left the bases loaded), George Springer hit a two-out, 3-2 curveball from Chase De Jong -- making his major league debut -- into the Crawford Boxes in left-center for a walk-off three-run homer in a 5-3 win. It was 353 feet and would not have been a homer at any other park. But the star of the game was long reliever Chris Devenski, who tossed four hitless innings with seven strikeouts for Houston. The Mariners were so helpless, flailing at his changeup, you saw several guys shaking their heads in confusion, like they hadn't seen a changeup all spring training. Anyway, as one of few relievers in baseball who is a true multi-inning weapon, Devenski is going to be one of the most valuable assets in any bullpen.
Devenski's pretty valuable and becoming more so .....But, Giles.....he's what we gave all that up for now. A lights out closer ..much better command as he steadied last year..and, now, out of the chute.....fastball(with giddyup & movement)/ devastating slider...so dominant. You can tell he's not plagued by the chronic back issues anymore as along with the results, his mechanics are sound. I'm sure he was told in no uncertain terms to do the exercises to keep it right. Period. A true monster. What a pen! The ability to shorten games is ours.
I think the multi-inning bullpen guy is extremely underrated, especially in an era where you have more starters getting hurt, on innings limits due to age or injury history, etc. So I'd say any guy who can come in and go 3-4 innings at a time, multiple times a week (and isn't a quad-A guy doing mop up duty) / hit 100+ innings out of the pen is already going to be more valuable than we realize in this era. When you add to it that he might be able to do all that with a 3.00 ERA or better and a 8-9 K/IP ratio.. I'd say you start rethinking how you measure the Reliever of the Year award. Not to say Devo will do what he did last year for the entirety of this season. But if he does (or if/when someone on another team finds a guy like him in that role), I think it becomes more valuable than the best closers in the game.
While I agree entirely, I think there is even more to it than that. He makes guys like McCullers and Feirs more valuable in the sense that if they can only go 5 (innings limits or guys that just seem to struggle to get to the 6 inning mark), you have a guy that can eat up three innings and hand it over to the closer. You also get a guy that makes tie games go into our favor. I will take (in a series) a tie game after 7 knowing Devo still has yet to pitch. We can put someone out there who is comfortable in a long relief situation and most likely better than who the opponent will throw out there. It is little things like that which can swing a game into your favor in the playoffs.
Great long reliever.... need one of those guys in your pen in case a starter clearly doesn't have it on the day.
Basically, 2 guys threw 100 innings last year with less than 10 starts. Devenski and a Cub (Montgomery). Devenski was better. Why is it always a Cub or the Cubs in general that are like the Astros? It will be very tough for Devenski to keep up his current pace. Only 1 reliever has accumalated more value than him since he came up. Granted, he picked up some as a starter, but the Yankees would put Betances in as a spot starter if they expected he could do what Devenski did last year. Last year, Devenski matched the innings of a long reliever with the efficiency of most closers. He's go to get closer to normal, right? That said, he's a two-pitch pitcher who's third pitch hasn't been hit for an extra base hit yet in a regular season MLB game and it has passed his fastball in usage. He's getting better....just hard to see the results getting better. He was basically as valuable as a MoR SP as a reliever.
Also worth considering what happened in the World Series with Chapman and Miller. After overuse/batter exposure they were both mortal. Devenski provides protection from overuse of Gregerson/Giles in a tight series.
Big if, but if Devenski continues to be what he has been, Giles and Gregorson need to be used to protect him.
Gut feeling based on usage alone I would say the Pen. As a starter he'd be used once every 5. I like him our of the pen for game planning purposes as well. As a starter there is more prep by the other hitters and the longevity of going 6 or 7 as opposed to 2,3 or 4 may have an impact as well
Its very interesting to note that we'd never be having this discussion, nor would there be a Devo-like candidate for meaningful consistent long relief, if the Astros were still in the NL. There's always been mop-up guys, and prior to LaRussa... there were multi-inning closers. But, multi-inning high leverage long-relief is a luxury only AL teams really can afford to cultivate.
For now. If they are deemed extremely valuable, the NL can find a way to work a guy like that in. He may not always go as long as in the AL, but if they let starters bat 1-3 times when pitching well, they would be willing to do the same for a beast RP
