Tucker certainly isn't a run of the mill prospect. He went #5 in the draft and was the second high schooler (Brendan Rodgers was taken over him but was considered the best high school prospect in 5-10 years) drafted. He was young for his draft class and is only 19 years old right now, and was the youngest player in A+ ball last year (nearly 4 years younger than the average player at that level. Tucker has also advanced faster than Brendan Rodgers has (he is in A ball). Tucker's production has increased at each level in the minors. He already has a very strong BB/K rate and has started hitting a lot of doubles and the power started to appear after his promotion next year. He is an excellent defender as a corner outfielder and is capable of playing center (at this point). He is also a very good base runner. So, he certainly isn't a run of the mill prospect. His name isn't appearing in publications or media top 20 lists because those lists and knowledge contained in those lists are notoriously old. As Tucker moves up the ladder, he will get more attention. Should he be dealt for Quintana? It takes talent to get talent.... but I am sure that the Astros view Tucker as their last top of the draft prospect for some time, and view him as a high WAR player for the Astros over the next 6-7 years.
Interesting psychological study to see which posters would probably always be reluctant to endorse a prospect for player trade, while which ones would almost always support it. Much of that has to do with how much more emphasis/following the minor league system commanded, when the MLB team was an abysmal embarrassing afterthought (partly by design). In the end, they're going to have to part ways with a lot of these guys... not simply due to MLB needs but also because there is already going to be established MLB talent up here that will physically block some players. Additionally, there are newly drafted/low level guys that will need promotions as well. The system has to be constantly fluid... either graduating players, trading players, or cutting players (so long Fontana, Singleton hardly knew ya). And at the end of the day, Luhnow's legacy will be based more on the MLB team's success vs. simply the success of the system.... its what will separate them from being like the Cardinals or being like the A's/Rays (that contend only when their minor league system churns out enough studs).
Trades are going to be necessary to clear the glut of talent moving up the system. If not they'll be plucked by teams in the rule 5 draft. But this is the middle of the pack talent, because certain players won't be exposed. I'm with Nook on this one, Tucker might be the last 5 star prospect we have for a while, as the Astros don't figure to be bottom dwellers in the immediate future. Tucker and Cameron were tied to the hip on prospect listings since they were drafted, until Tucker separated himself. You can tell the pundits weren't really paying attention just yet. Now Kyle Tucker has their attention. He cracked the top 50, so they are watching. I think Tucker will be challenging for playing time on the Astros by the middle of next year. I'm hoping Cameron regains his form and stops looking overmatched.
Tucker played well but seems like Daz's suckage is what separated them. Maybe our expectations were unrealistic for Daz but I think if you told us his first 1.5 seasons with the club would go so poorly we would have laughed at you. Nearly a 40% K rate at Low A Quad Cities? I know it was an aggressive assignment but that's just so bad. Really hoping some of his tools start translating in 2017.
Challenging for playing time is one thing. But being expected to be a contributing regular (and eventually be in his prime years) is another... may still be a good 2 years away. This is still a current window based on Springer, Correa, Bregman and Altuve... the latter of which is fully entrenched in his prime years now. By no means am I on the trade Tucker bandwagon... but I also don't feel he's as "untouchable" as some are currently making him out to be. As Nook said, it takes talent to get talent. The MLB team is the priority. The minor league system will not bottom out ala the 2007-11 Astros provided they also don't start ignoring the draft and international market.
Neither am I against trading anyone in the minors, but it seems that as of now Quintana costs you Francis, Tucker, and Musgrove. That is too much!!!! Astros seem confident in those guys. If the Astros wait till July and these prospects advance further, Quintana may only cost you only one of the aforementioned. Though You may need to add two or three lower level prospects. Tucker is like a Microsoft stock in the 80's, he's trending up. You sell now and you get a good return, but if you hold on one more year you may become a millionaire. Tucker isn't going to be diminishing return for holding him for another few month. Shoot I suspect the Astros intended to trade Bregman at one point, until they realized he could be a core guy. Besides what we fans want regarding prospects, Luhnow knows that the minor league system is to spruce up the big league club. But also, in three and four years he's got to put a quality product on the field, to make his boss money too. Bottom line is, trades should hurt both ways. When you have the White Sox dancing in the streets regarding the return for Sales and Eaton, on paper someone was taken to the cleaners. If they get what they want for Quintana, the White Sox may emerge a dynasty.
Moises and Jose Alou or maybe Felipe/Matty vs Jesus Alou, since they at least all made the majors and Felipe/Matty are both reasonable comps to the level of player Kyle is expected to become (and similar to the type of player Felipe was).
I think there are a couple things going on with the Astros. The first is that Luhnow doesn't seem to operate with the idea of a window. What I mean is that he appears to be interested in long term competitiveness, even if that means having a weaker team because certain deals are not made. Luhnow is clearly a very cautious man. If you look at the trades the Astros have made so far, he has not shown the willingness to move his top prospects. Even the trade for Giles and Gomez involved moving very flawed prospects. Appel wasn't going to be a long term starter, Brett Phillips had a high K rate and was losing his speed as he developed, Vince Velasquez had serious health issues, Hader was a bullpen arm. Look at the Kazmir deal, he traded a player that he did not believe could stay a catcher behind the plate. Even the free agent signings are all very risk adverse signings. The Reddick deal is 4 years long but not at very big money. Of course an argument can be made that at the time the Astros made those deals, they were not in a "win now" sense of urgency and now there is more pressure. At 19 years old, Tucker's prime seasons are half a decade away. Perhaps the Astros view him as a bridge between the existing core and the future. Perhaps the Astros already are willing to make the deal for Quintana but believe they can negotiate the White Sox into taking a lesser package. I am fine with the Astros holding onto Martes and Tucker if they really believe that they are key pieces. However in order for the Astros to get a player with the contract and track record of Quintana, it will cost an uncomfortable amount of prospects. The Astros could try to plug in Springer instead of Tucker; but Luhnow made it clear that he isn't moving any regulars this season.
On the flip side, do you think the Red Sox regret making the trade for Sale? Or the countless other trades where prospects amounted to virtually nothing? Hell, just look at what's left here from the Michael Bourne/Hunter Pence trades? Even the seemingly most sure thing or prospect with the highest upside has a huge bust factor.
Your Microsoft analogy can also be applied negatively. A year ago, AJ Reed could have headlined a trade for an elite player. Now? Our fanbase had a meltdown when we lost Brett Phillips, and he batted .229 with 154 Ks in AA last year. Obviously still early in his career, but at this point he isn't looking like the superstar many thought he was destined to be. Our fanbase has become so obsessed with prospects, which is understandable because for years that was all we had. But we need to stop overvaluing these guys. Think of all the moaning we've done over the prospects Luhnow has traded in the past few years. There's maybe ONE that will end up hurting us, VV, and he's probably the most injury-risky player in the majors right now. We need to all realize that the Springer/Correa/Altuve/Bregman core is on it's last legs with looming free agency. Not trading for an elite starting pitcher because Martes or Tucker may develop into competent major leaguers in 2020 is a monumental error.
Liberal use of the phrase, 3 full seasons before Altuve hits FA, 4 full seasons before Springer hits FA. Martes could be dominating postseason games for us this year, he isn't some far off project. But of course he may never amount to anything. There are valid points on both sides of trading for Quintana. Ultimately Luhnow is the one who is gonna have to answer for it, and if lack of front end pitching kills us it will be his fault. Likewise if Tucker and Martes turn in to superstars on another team we will certainly hear about it.
I agree with you in general. It comes down to evaluating the prospects and the level of confidence they have in the players involved. "He could" isn't good enough to hold onto them, but "He will" is something more understandable. Also concerning the Red Sox, it is a little different because they have the resources to sign free agents if there is a lull in the system from trading prospects. The Quintana situation is special because is almost the same value wise as an established young player because he is under team control at basically arbitration level pay for the next 4 seasons.
