People forget that Bregman didn't become the best overall prospect in baseball till after he tore up AA with unexpected power last year. He went from a low floor but possibly set ceiling prospect at the start of the season to a sky is the limit-type star. Had he been traded last off-season, the return would have been paltry. That being said, his value has gotten so high that he's now essentially untradeable. Tucker seems to be valued much more than Bregman was going into last season. Likewise, the expectations are that much more as well. The realist in me is concerned that he may not be as good as the already called up phenoms.
The Cubs have one of the best rotations in baseball, so not sure what that matters and the NL vs AL helps them have better ERAs. I don't see Quintana has a top 10 pitcher, but being consistently very good over the last 5 years is why he is so good. He may not finish in the top 10 in ERA any one year, but how does he compare across the past 5 years?
He finished top 9 in the AL each of the past two years, and since 2014, he ranks 5th in the AL (min 500 IP).
I'm assuming we were referencing Top 10 in MLB, not just the AL, but those stats would likely fit close to a Top 10 pitcher in MLB over that time. One thing that could be concerning is that his FIP, xFIP, & SIERA (SIERA in particular) aren't as sparkling as his ERA, so you could see a step back. Fangraphs projection systems basically have him pegged as 2015 Collin McHugh. I'd be perfectly happy with that over the next 4 years, but I think a lot of people would be disappointed.
Consistency goes a long way... Keuchel and McHugh have been ultra-inconsistent throughout their careers. Health also goes a long way... LMJ's career hangs in the balance based on that.
Collin McHugh can't even give us 4 straight years of 2015 Collin McHugh. Quintana has been the definition of consistent throughout his career, and that's one thing youth cannot give you. This team suffered last year because of its inexperience, and inconsistency from its young players. Someone like Quintana would shore up the front end of the rotation, bring a calming locker room presence, and allow guys like Keuchel and McCullers some breathing room.
ok... Neither pitcher has been as consistent as Quintana has. Even if his peak is slightly below where the others peaks have been... the reproducibility of it goes much further and makes him just as (if not more) valuable. If the Astros knew they would be getting max performances from Keuchel, McHugh, and health with LMJ... they probably wouldn't be as much in the market for pitching as they are.
Sorry I thought you were saying top 10 pitcher in all of baseball, I would definitely agree that he is top 10 in the AL
I don't follow all the other teams. How about of ranking list of the top 10-20 pitchers in the major league in your opinion?
White Sox Got a kings random for their previous stars. I bet they think they hold all the cards here. As high as Martes is regarded by the Astros, in terms of Ace type, I'm sure the White Sox are salivating at him, Musgrove, and Tucker. Shoot I bet at least one of those guys reach their potential. Musgrove figures to be a #3-4 workhorse, the type that saves your bullpen. Martes is a top of the order pitcher, quite possibly an ace. Tucker should be taking over next season, after probably bolting up the prospects list into the top 20 if not higher; you have to be intrigued with him after his swing is compared to Ted Williams. But you can't blame the Sox for trying. As Luhnow mentioned, if their price comes down then that might be a match.
I would think a deal would get done to get Quintana for Martes, Musgrove, Paulino, and Fisher. Which would be funny since those guys were all acquired as secondary pieces in trades selling weak veterans (Cosart, Happ, Veras, and Norris, respectively).
I think the best course of action is to trust our farm and hope that some of our more expendable prospects increase their value. I'm looking at Reed, Fisher, and Daz, specifically. Hell, Paulino and/or Whitley could potentially play their way into a blue-chip centerpiece. Essentially, I'd rather pay an arm and a leg later in the season than right now. I think we have the depth to retain Tucker by finding value elsewhere in our system while still acquiring a TOR SP. Quintana's price isn't going anywhere. Sure, it's possible that Martes/Tucker struggle, but prospect analysis is a fluid game, and I just think we'd be short selling right now. We don't have to pay an arm and a leg right now to be competitive in the AL West, and that's what really matters. Let's regroup in June before we make any rash decisions. We are still very early in our window.
It's riveting watching Rick make a Schaub'esque case again. The "undervalued" "elite" performer unearthed from statistics. Of course I don't get to watch Jose Quintana much at all but consistency is the most often used word to describe him. Sometimes there are players who out of the spotlight of being a team's #1 pitcher perform consistently well but nobody that you'd really want leading your staff into a playoff series. It's less about someone "forgeting how to pitch" and more about how baseball is a mental game. The more I thought about it, the more I thought of an old former Astros lefty who you'd somewhat describe in the same manner. Of course the former Astros player was in the National League, I'm taking his five best consecutive seasons, and I don't think he was as good as Quintana but he carved out a nice career for himself and those numbers sure match up pretty well. Jose Quintana 5 seasons 46-46 record 3.41 era 951 ip 7.4 k/9 .8 HR/9 1.24 whip mystery former Astros player 5 seasons 57-55 record 3.47 era 934.7 ip 7.77 k/9 .93 HR/9 1.28 whip So who is ready to trade Martes, Tucker, and Musgrove for Wandy Rodriguez? Rick will be by soon to convince you it's a great idea.
I'm sure the White Sox are sitting around hoping a sucker relieved them of another year of rebuilding. How many prospect do you get in a year that are around after 2? Maybe 3 or 4 in the top 20. It's easy stacking a minor league system. It's hard having quality prospects in it. I say one of Martes or Tucker, and 2 other guys not in the top 10 of the Astros system.
Quintana is better than Wandy. I have no issue with his view of Quintana short term. I just think he places nearly zero value in reasonable upside, judges rookies nearly entirely on downside, and treats an ace like a QB or NBA star (I.e. no quantity of good players, rookies are worth deal). Tucker does not look like a run of the mill prospect. Astros have referred to him as an untouchable.
