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HOU #3 Off #21 Def, Champs #3-tied Off #19 Def, Net Rox #7 Champs #6

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by heypartner, Dec 8, 2016.

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  1. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    Net Rating is Point Differential that normalizes Pace to 100 possessions for everyone. So, Pace is taken out of the equation.

    In a slightly different way, Points scored vs allowed is the heart and soul of the main Sabermetric predictive algorithm for MLB called Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball, created by the famous Bill James.

    [​IMG]

    But what is really interesting, is guess who was able to figure out how to turn the formula into one suitable for the much higher scoring game of basketball,,,specifically the NBA.

    Yes, Daryl Morey. He figured out the exponents needed to be 13.91 versus 2.
    And this familiar picture of him is the actual formula he created...which was later changed to 14

    [​IMG]
     
    #21 heypartner, Dec 9, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2016
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  2. DonKnock

    DonKnock Member

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    After the Clippers loss and SA losing to the Bulls fairly handily, I think our aim should be 2nd/3rd seeds barring injuries
     
    #22 DonKnock, Dec 9, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2016
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  3. Nivos

    Nivos Member

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    Wow thanks for the explanation+ bonus trivia question.
    Great stuff and explains a lot of the standings
     
    #23 Nivos, Dec 9, 2016
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  4. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    And read this from morey.org

    Morey came up with the correct exponents in 93-94. This article explains how the Rockets were an outlier. When they say "lucky" vs "unlucky", that's just the way the statisticians talk about the formula...don't take it personally. It just means you are outperforming or underperforming the prediction...and they try to analyze why.

    [​IMG]
     
    #24 heypartner, Dec 9, 2016
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  5. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    The Champs of last year might not be this year.
     
    #25 daywalker02, Dec 9, 2016
  6. zeeshan2

    zeeshan2 Member

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    #26 zeeshan2, Dec 9, 2016
  7. TRIQSTER

    TRIQSTER Member

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    W


    Wonder what okc's numbers look like
     
    #27 TRIQSTER, Dec 9, 2016
  8. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Member

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    #28 Mr. Clutch, Dec 9, 2016
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  9. omgTHEpotential

    omgTHEpotential Member

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    Pretty much this. It's a deceptive comparison. It's good to make the board feel better about the Rockets, but we need to take it with a grain of salt.
     
    #29 omgTHEpotential, Dec 9, 2016
  10. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Member

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    You have rox net rating 5.8 and I believe it should be 5.2, conversely you have Cleve 5.2 and I believe it should be 5.8 @heypartner

    But really this is all great signs of a much better ball club. The Philly and Lakers games are outliers tho and thus the better defensive rating than actual but we have been improving steadily.

    My prediction was always a top 3 offense if not the best by seasons end and my hope was an average defense, 15th or so. If we could keep climbing and reach 15 it would mean we are likely playing at a great level and would place us just outside the big 3 of cle, gsw, sas and mean we have a punchers chance.
     
    #30 BigMaloe, Dec 9, 2016
  11. heypartner

    heypartner Member

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    The Utah blowout loss really affected us , too, in the other direction ... we were 136 DRtg (if miemory serve). It is balancing out.

    The GSW win we were a DRtg 101.

    btw: that NBA link I provided how an ability to pick specific dates and date ranges. You can see what we with were with streaks ... and even with and without "outlier" games. (if you do a little math)
     
    #31 heypartner, Dec 9, 2016
  12. bongman

    bongman Member

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    #32 bongman, Dec 9, 2016
  13. BigMaloe

    BigMaloe Member

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    Oh no I understand outliers in both directions and that's fine I was just stating the recent blowout to LA is why our defense jumped significantly combined with our steady inprovement
     
    #33 BigMaloe, Dec 9, 2016
  14. joomba

    joomba Member

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    and you think we are at our best? the Rockets are still figuring out how to play with each other, and Dmo is not even in the rotation yet. This is a new team with new coaching staff, we are not even close to our full potential.
     
    #34 joomba, Dec 9, 2016
  15. bongman

    bongman Member

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    We are certainly not immune to confirmation bias but it is just good to see that based on this type of statistical ranking, we are playing as well as those teams that are favored to win this year. Especially when most experts wrote us off on their preseason predictions. Basically, we are better than what most people thought off and to me, that is cause to celebrate that we are on the right track.
     
    #35 bongman, Dec 9, 2016
  16. Justin Dela Torre

    Justin Dela Torre Member

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    I agree 2nd isn't unrealistic, plus harden will have a good shot at MVP
     
    #36 Justin Dela Torre, Dec 9, 2016
  17. mrm32

    mrm32 Member

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    Unless they go with the best player on the best team narrative again or decide to give to Westbrook because he managed some amazing numbers and a 5th seed.
     
    #37 mrm32, Dec 9, 2016
  18. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Member

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    The pessimist in me says:
    1. Still small sample size. Wonder how accurate these numbers have been historically at 1/4 into the season vs. full season.
    2. This says as much about Cleveland's defense (and pace) thus far as the Rockets
    3. Cleveland can certainly get better defensively. Can the Rockets get better defensively and/or sustain the ORtg offensively? Still unknown.

    The optimist in me says:
    1. Rockets should be able to sustain that net rating because they should be great offensively regardless, and seem like a #20ish team defensively. They have glaring defensive issues, but better chemistry this year plus I think their offense pace/success help cover some of that up.
    2. Mimicking the team that took down the "all-time" team makes sense. And the more we play against the Warriors, the more I watch other teams play against the Warriors, the more I become convinced that you have to beat the Warriors at their own game PLUS have better/equal bench and bigs. Meaning, go fast, score a lot and efficiently, beat up their bench if you can, and hope your bigs are better than theirs, especially defensively. That seems to be how the Thunder were successful last year, how the Cavs did it. Of course, this year is different and the Warriors are still the odds on favorite...
    3. Even if the Rockets slip a bit, we can feel very good 1/4 through the season that the Rockets are way better than we thought they'd be, that this OFFENSE first philosophy can have long term championship potential.... though still lots of heavy roster lifting to be done to get there.
     
    #38 JayZ750, Dec 9, 2016
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  19. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    That would be amazing.
     
    #39 jim1961, Dec 9, 2016
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