Rotation doesn't look bad. So much will depend on LMJ health, Keuchel's bounce back, and the young guys growth.
If they get 2015 Keuchel, 2014 or 2015 McHugh, 2014 Fiers, 2016 Devenski and a healthy McCullers, the rotation will be just fine.
I'm cautiously optimistic. None of our FA signings are guaranteed home runs. We got a 40 year old Beltran, a downhill Brian McCann, and Josh Reddick is as good as anyone's guess. Are we better than last year? Heck yea, but that just goes to show how big our holes were at those positions.
Offense gets you to the playoffs, pitching wins championships. Houston has an extremely good chance to make the playoffs. Their odds of advancing once they get there are pretty slim, as it stands.
Obviously our rotation would be more than fine if all those things happen (it would be as good as Boston's rotation). As it stands, our rotation feels middle of the pack and we still have a good pen. Red Sox & Cubs will open the season as the 2 clear favorites, but Astros would be in any discussion about the 3rd best team. I have faith that Keuchel will rebound (not to Cy Young level, but to a 3-3.5 ERA guy). The rotation has potential to be a top 3 rotation, if a couple of things bounce our way.
None of anyone's FA signings are guaranteed home runs. Look at Upton and Heyward last year. That's why they do evaluations and make the best decisions possible with the information they have. I'm happy with the choices Luhnow made here. Better than last year, and last year was pretty decent and > .500, just a few games out of the playoffs. Plus you can't look at it without including some sort of expected rebound from Keuchel, full season of Bregman/Gurriel, and improvement from Correa. Correa and Bregman are still SO young.
There's plenty of time left in the offseason so I'm by no means throwing in the towel, but you HAVE to upgrade the rotation. McCullers has shown no ability to stay healthy. Keuchel now has a career with 3 bad years and 2 good ones. He may very well return to 2014-2015 form, but expecting it is purely based on hope. McHugh is solid but nothing special. Sure, if McCullers/Keuchel/McHugh all match their career best performance then we are set and a World Series contender. But I'd argue there's an equal possibility that we will be trotting out a below average rotation.
Agree on all counts. But last year was the worst possible scenario for LMJ/Keuchel/McHugh, and the team still won 84 games. Even if you assume all 3 are equally horrible (vs. their own projections), this team still looks playoff-bound. If 1 or 2 of them exceeds last year? They'll be in better shape. Not saying they're WS favorites or anything, but any risk evaluation has to assume some rebound vs. assuming they all stay terrible.
'98 OD rotation: Shane (95 ERA+ in '97) Hampton (104 ERA+) Halama (rookie, replaced after 6 starts by Pete Schourek, 79 ERA+) Lima (76 ERA +, 51 games out of pen, 1 start) Bergman (64 ERA+, 35 games out of pen in SD, 9 starts) Somehow that team was 66-44 and 3.5 up in the division on July 31 when they traded for some guy.
