[Feigen] 20 games in, there's more to Rockets than 3-pointers

Notable Quotes of the article

D'Antoni on our defense. Vs GSW "Playing with hair on fire. We have to get that mentality all the time."
Trevor Ariza said. "We have a totally different mindset than we did in previous years.​

Notable Feigen analysis:

Our pace is just league average, but 4th in fastbreaks. "James Harden and the Rockets are fourth in the NBA with 16.1 fast-break points per game, but the guard has generally taken a deliberate approach when setting up the offense in the halfcourt."​

20 games in, there's more to Rockets than 3-pointers
By Jonathan Feigen
December 4, 2016

Stay down Lamarcus

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James Harden and the Rockets are fourth in the NBA with 16.1 fast-break points per game, but the guard has generally taken a deliberate approach when setting up the offense in the halfcourt.
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Hours before the Rockets' five-game road trip would begin, coach Mike D'Antoni said he would know much more about his team when it returned home than before it left.

Extended trips tend to reveal truths about teams, but coaches have always thought it takes 20 games to truly know the hand they have been dealt. D'Antoni had a pretty good idea but knew he would soon know much more about the Rockets' strengths, weaknesses and potential.

"There will be areas that will test our resolve," D'Antoni said that day in Sacramento. "This will be a mini-test. We're going to be really good. We're not there yet."​

Whether his team can be labeled "really good" depends on early-December standards. But all things considered - from the 3-for-all against the Kings to the back-to-back wins over the Warriors and Nuggets - the road trip likely was enough to have the Rockets trending in that direction.

"Twenty games in, we're pretty solid," guard James Harden said. "We've still got a long way to go - executing better, helping each other more defensively. But I like where we're at right now."​

At this point, there is much proved, much assumed about the Rockets, some shown to be true and some clearly inaccurate. Who they are will continue to evolve, but after 20 games, much is clear.

The line: "The Rockets live and die by the 3."

The truth: Not really.

The Rockets take more 3-pointers than any team ever has, averaging 37 per game and making an average of 14. They took a record 50 3-pointers at Sacramento. They and the Warriors combined for a record 88. They get the largest percentage of their points off 3s.

Paint production

But the Rockets beat the Warriors on a night they made just 31.8 percent. They average just 1.8 more 3s in wins than losses, with their more significant improvement in wins coming in other areas. More telling, they are fourth in the NBA in points in the paint and second-chance points. Their field-goal percentage in the restricted area is third.

The line: "The Rockets get up and down the floor."

The truth: They don't.

The Rockets do score well on the break, but that is a comment about their offense more than how often they run. They average 16.1 fast-break points per game to rank fourth, but they are just 13th in pace, about where they have been all season, as Harden prefers to look things over on most possessions before the Rockets get into their offense. Once in the halfcourt, they shoot quickly, making their pace seem faster than it is. (EDIT: I completely agree with this)

D'Antoni also does not care about pace getting up and down the court as much as the pace of movement and ball movement once the Rockets are in their offense, where it has improved but not consistently.

The line: "The Rockets are all offense."

The truth: Often, yes, but not always.

The Rockets improved markedly on defense after the first two weeks of the season, but mostly, the defense shows only flashes.

It tightened significantly throughout the win over the Warriors until Golden State made just one of 11 shots in the second overtime. Many of the Rockets' wins have been keyed by stretches of defense, but overall, they have slid back to 26th in defensive rating, with virtually every answer about needed improvement citing that end of the court.

"Defensively, we can get a lot better," D'Antoni said. "I think against Golden State as one of our better defensive efforts. Some of that is from the respect you have for Golden State, playing with hair on fire. We have to get that mentality all the time."​

The line: "The biggest improvement is from Harden playing point guard and the 3-point shooting added by Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon."

The truth: The biggest change is attitude.

Refusal to fold

As well as Harden has performed as a playmaker and as much as D'Antoni's offense has clicked with the shooters, the reason the Rockets have not lost consecutive games is improved perseverance. A team that crumbled when adversity struck last season has been its best when things have seemed worst.

"We're just maturing as a team," Trevor Ariza said. "We have a totally different mindset than we did in previous years.

"I think we're in a good place. Doesn't mean we're satisfied, but we're on our way to where we're trying to go."​

They are, after 20 games, about where D'Antoni expected five games ago.

"After 20 games, you get a good sense of who you are," D'Antoni said. "Chemistry is good. They're fighting and improving.

"I think we're a very good team. I was hoping we'd be a very good team. I think we're getting there. Still see some possibilities of improving a lot."​

 

What's been interesting to me in 1st 20 games (wrt the system) is while our 97 Pace (using bballref numbers) is roughly league average, it is faster than any year of the MDA Suns. It's also identical to Rockets Pace under McHale.

Upon further review though, the Suns' Pace back then was 5 possessions per game faster than league average. The league now is faster as a whole. So, it's not so much what your Pace is, but how much faster you are than the league average. I say that, because the Opponents obviously affect the Pace of the game ... so if Suns' games were >5 Pace faster than league average, they were clearly forcing a faster Pace, best they could.

As Feigen noted, we see Harden (and Ennis/Gordon for that matter) being more deliberate at setting the offense. I've been tracking this on a personal database, and we rarely start a play within 7 Seconds or Less. But once we do, it is fast. So, maybe the difference is merely time to set everyone. You see our PGs quite frequently calling out the plays while dribbling up. I assume because the offense isn't at a steady-state of readiness to immediately go into sets (improvise to the defense) like Nash could do.

It's like we have to think as a whole first before react at the beginning of the half-court sets -- as we get comfortable with the new system. That, and obviously Harden is better at ISO than Nash, so we do still run ISO.

That said, we are getting faster at getting into the play, as season progresses - which makes sense.

 

Agree. That comment is a running narrative to bash last year (eg Dwert/Harden).

Even if you want to say "attitude" is more important than adding two elite shooters and Harden switching to PG, you should really say "A return of the 2015 attitude" -- hence, Jason Terry's comment last year "Not the same team."

I suppose a more positive attitude from your Superstar is very important, though.