Would you rather have 80 dominant high leverage relief innings or 160 league average starter innings?
If the ChiSox are demanding Bregman for any deal involving Sale/Quintana that's a no-go. While an ace is absolutely a need, I think the Stros can afford to go with a wait and see approach. We should trade for an Odorizzi/Pineda type starter instead. They will come at a fraction of the cost and still leave us with better depth in the rotation while keeping our young core intact. Then, at midseason, if necessry we can deal for an ace/breakout SP at the deadline. This is the approach I would take. A rotation of Keuchel, McCullers, Odorizzi/Pineda, McHugh and Morton along with our new potent lineup can help us win the division. I don't think it's worth breaking the bank over Sale who's velocity is dipping (a sign of a decline?) and has had problems in the ChiSox clubhouse. Plus, if we hold on to Francis Martes, he could come up and be our "ace" acquisition potentially at midseason. Just some things to think about. It's going to be fascinating to see what Luhnow does from her in FA and trades.
My concern is that as a long-reliever, he's often NOT in high leverage situations. If you're coming during the 4th or 5th inning, it's often because your starter got lit up. It's nice when you're able to come back, but it's often going to be just wasted innings.
I would hope that, based on last year, his usage this year will be different. They'll have a Fiers or Feliz or someone like that in the more typical LR role, and Devo in the middle-to-late innings stopper/high leverage role.
Last year they already did start using Devenski in the high leverage 1 inning situations. In September's 10 appearances, he only had 2 longer than 2 innings. He exhibited a special skill set last year.
If Miller had never failed as a starter, and was still the dominant relief guy he is now... everybody would be clamoring for him to start in similar fashion. Dotel had a similar path to dominance also. As for the above question, while relief pitcher pitch less innings, the dominant ones often have a positive impact in a larger percentage of overall games (especially in the playoffs). I'd take the dominant relief innings. That makes him a weapon. A league average starter is not that same sort of strength/asset.
Depending on the type of contract to get a deal done, this could be a viable option. And it would allow Reed to get himself in better shape, and build his resume in the AAA minors, I would expect him to improve, and he could be up a year later or be used as trade bait.
Wouldn't keeping Valbuena be better than Napoli? Hoping for Hill or Encarnacion, but think those are unlikely at this point.
Luhnow was on record on the radio Friday saying that, if they decide to move Devo to the rotation, he would project as a 2-3 starter. If that's your assessment of him, I don't know why you wouldn't do that. That changeup of his should profile just fine into the rotation, and it's not like he doesn't have other pitches as well.
Do not want Napoli. Would rather re-sign Valbuena. His power #s in 2016 appear to be a tad of an abboration. He hit .239 and has never been a great contact/on base guy. And he's not good defensively. Don't see him as a good fit.
How are his power numbers an aberration? His at bats per homer last year was close to his career average. He gets on base at a very solid clip, because he walks a lot. His OBP is over 350 for his career. He does strike out a lot, which represses his average, but he is a career 255 hitter and was at 235 last year. Napoli isn't a good defender but I suspect he would DH most the time. Napoli wouldn't be my first choice but he has a legitimate bat and would add to the line up.
The Astros with Valbuena's bat in the lineup were scoring runs at a higher clip than any team in the majors. Don't want a long term contract at 1B. I still think Reed is a .280 25-30hr 90-100 rbi future player.
The amount of fear this group could put on an opposing staff. 1. McCann 2. Valbuena 3. Altuve 4. Correa 5. Bregman 6. Springer 7. Reddick 8. Beltran 9. Gattis 10. Gurriel 11. Marwin 12. Marisnick 13. Teo/Aoki
I am too, if your a fan you can't say we haven't spent too win with the recent signings. Now I'm interested to see if Luhnow makes a "all in now" trade, or saves for the future. I bet he waits until the deadline to decide if we need one more ace to get over the hump.
What makes you think Valbuena is more likely to take a short term contract compared to the older Napoli? I will take Napoli's bat over Valbuena's.
Astros could have given him a QO (maybe about 5-6 million more than Napoli will get) which would have made it difficult for him to get a good multi-year deal elsewhere. If Valbuena doesn't take the QO, get a pick and then move on to Napoli. The bats are close that I don't really care. I'd take Valbuena for the defense. Going the route I suggest would have given the Astros two shots at getting basically the same bat instead of hoping Napoli accepts a contract. The downside of the approach I suggested would be possibly losing 5-6 million dollars, but being stuck with the better defensive player. 5-6 million for one year shouldn't be a deal killer unless Astros are right at the budget.
