I can, quite easily. Trump could win NH and the Maine 2nd, which would give him 270. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it's probably his best path to victory.
SCOTUS has never ever really been impartial or stayed out of politics. They have either been conservative/liberal based on their make up and on the case they hear. It is naive to think the court has never brought their prior ideologies into play nor played politics. Sadly, this is how I think it will play out in the end. I could see a recount happening in Nevada to push calling the Election into later this week. Also based on this, the GOP holds onto the Senate and would have free rein to anything they want given they would hold President, Congress, and most of the state houses.
538 has Hillary at a 71.6% chance of winning. 55.8% chance of winning NC. 54.9% chance of winning FL. 58.4% chance of winning NV. MI, PA and NH are all at 70+% chance of winning. 302.3 electoral votes. Appears to be Breaking Bad for The Donald.
You're already moving the goal posts. I'm not talking about other people's predictions. I am talking about yours. Lets just see what happens and then you can be as creative as you like about why you were completely wrong.
Of the early states big states in play NC, FL, and OH Trump needs to win at least two of those to keep competitive and if even if he does he would still need to get CO. If we see Trump only win one then his only hope is that a more reliable Dem. state like PA, MI or WI flip. That seems unlikely. If Clinton wins NC, and FL early the election is probably over and it's a short night.
I've already predicted a Hillary win but thought I would post my "Trump sneaks a win out" scenario. Hillary lost Michigan to Bernie and the polls were REALLY off there in the primaries. Trump is a lot closer in the polls than Bernie was and there is of course the "hidden" Trump vote that won't state they are voting for him (but really will).
I feel ashamed for you for typing the above nonsense. I sense a great sadness for all of your K-12 teachers for failing for you. 538 is a poll aggregator. 538 does not do their own polls. You can compare two polls. You can compare two poll aggregators. You can not meaningfully compare a poll and a poll aggregator.
The hidden Trump voters were no where to be found in the Republican primaries. The polls matched the votes. There could be a hidden Latino voter, since some polls are English only. There could also be a hidden Republican woman voter ... someone who will not publicly state that they are going to vote for Hillary ... since their entire family is voting Trump. The hidden voters or lack thereof will be an interesting post election story.
It's not a prediction. I already explained I think Hillary wins. Having said that, if Trump DOES win, it would be an explanation of how Trump pulled it off. Having said that, of course hidden Trump voters were nowhere to be found in the primaries. The General Election "hidden voters" are the ones (like me) who voted for other republican candidates and have held off the whole campaign in vocally supporting Trump. They won't tell anyone (even friends and family) they are voting for him and yet will pull the lever for him in secret in the voting booth because they are so disgusted by the Clintons.
In early voting in GA 28% of GOP women crossed over and voted for Hillary. It will be interesting to see how that translates nationally.
It will be a blowout - Winston Churchill says you can always count on America to do the right thing. It will be more than 300 electorals to Hillary and will be a 4+ point blowout in the popular voting. DD
And you know this how, when results haven't even been released? Stop posting completely fabricated BS.
SMH, you saying this just shows that you have no clue what I said. The public school system clearly failed you.
My "prediction" was really just saying what the RCP poll averages were saying.....so it's not so much me giving a prediction as it is me saying what the polls say will happen. 538 is giving a prediction that goes against the polls, I'm saying I think the polls are likely more accurate. Glad we had this talk.
