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The war in Iraq has increased Al Qaeda members----

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by underoverup, Oct 15, 2003.

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  1. underoverup

    underoverup Member

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    "On the plus side, war in Iraq has denied al Qaeda a potential supplier of weapons of mass destruction and discouraged state sponsors of terrorism from continuing to support it," the report said.

    "On the minus side, war in Iraq has probably inflamed radical passions among Muslims and thus increased al Qaeda's recruiting power and morale and, at least marginally, its operating capability," it said. "The immediate effect of the war may have been to isolate further al Qaeda from any potential state supporters while also swelling its ranks and galvanizing its will."

    Iraq War Swells Al Qaeda's Ranks, Report Says
    Wed. Oct 15
    By Peter Graff

    LONDON (Reuters) - War in Iraq has swollen the ranks of al Qaeda and galvanized the Islamic militant group's will, the International Institute for Strategic Studies said on Wednesday in its annual report.

    The 2003-2004 edition of the British-based think-tank's annual bible for defense analysts, The Military Balance, said Washington's assertions after the Iraq conflict that it had turned the corner in the war on terror were "over-confident."

    The report, widely considered an authoritative text on the military capabilities of states and militant groups worldwide, could prove fodder for critics of the U.S.-British invasion and of the reconstruction effort that has followed in Iraq.

    Washington must impose security in Iraq to prevent the country from "ripening into a cause celebre for radical Islamic terrorists," it concluded. "Nation-building" in Iraq was paramount and might require more troops than initially planned.

    "On the plus side, war in Iraq has denied al Qaeda a potential supplier of weapons of mass destruction and discouraged state sponsors of terrorism from continuing to support it," the report said.

    "On the minus side, war in Iraq has probably inflamed radical passions among Muslims and thus increased al Qaeda's recruiting power and morale and, at least marginally, its operating capability," it said. "The immediate effect of the war may have been to isolate further al Qaeda from any potential state supporters while also swelling its ranks and galvanizing its will."

    FAILED STATES
    Magnus Ranstorp, terrorism expert at Britain's St Andrew's University, told Reuters the report's findings would drive home the importance of rebuilding Iraq and other conflict zones. "Military planners and the law enforcement community are fully aware of the consequences of failed states," he said.

    "I think it's probably worthwhile for politicians to keep in mind our responsibility to provide sustained and long term reconstruction in war-torn countries, so they don't fly back into anarchy or become incubators of terrorism." Washington blames al Qaeda, led by Osama bin Laden, for the 2001 U.S. airliner hijack attacks which killed 3,044 people.

    A crackdown had netted some al Qaeda leaders and deprived al Qaeda of bases in Afghanistan. But it also "impelled an already highly decentralized and evasive international terrorist network to become even more 'virtual' and protean and, therefore, harder to identify and neutralize," the IISS report said.

    It said 18,000 veterans of al Qaeda's Afghan training camps were still probably operating worldwide "with recruitment continuing and probably increasing following the war in Iraq."

    Al Qaeda leaders, including bin Laden, are mostly still at large and continue to incite followers over the Internet and through pronouncements on Arabic-language television.

    Because of its extreme religious world view, al Qaeda "cannot be tamed or controlled through political compromise or conflict resolution," the report said.

    But Western countries need to do more to reach out to Muslim countries and their own Islamic minorities to "eliminate the root causes of terrorism," especially after the Iraq war "almost certainly further alienated Islam from the West."

    Efforts should be redoubled to resolve local conflicts, such as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, so regional radical groups such as Hamas do not fall into al Qaeda's embrace, it said.
     
    #1 underoverup, Oct 15, 2003
  2. Cohen

    Cohen Member

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    ...galvanizing it's will... :rolleyes:

    It didn't appear galvanized before?



    Peace in the ME would shrink al qaeda.

    Leaving Iraq, assuming we can last until they're ready to launch a succesful democracy, could also weaken it somewhat.

    Hopefully, we'll focus on a ME Peace instead of just focusing on who needs attacking next. The ol' long-term vs short-term perspective conundrum.
     
    #2 Cohen, Oct 15, 2003
  3. FranchiseBlade

    FranchiseBlade Member
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    I know this isn't exactly what you were saying in your post, Cohen, but it did remind me of something that I hear frequently. I hear the argument that once the democracy is set up in Iraq it will spread to other nations in the middle east. It will be a launching pad in the region for democracy.

    To me it sounds like the domino theory of democracy. The domino theory didn't hold water the first time. Why will it be different this time?
     
    #3 FranchiseBlade, Oct 15, 2003
  4. Maynard

    Maynard Member

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    exactly what I was thinking

    will the negative seeds of the short-term doom any good that the long-term goals could produce?


    that was my biggest concern before the war and nothing has changed since to alter that fear..
     
    #4 Maynard, Oct 15, 2003
  5. Cohen

    Cohen Member

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    It didn't? Is not the entire Eastern block, including the old Soviet Union, now Democratic? It didn't work when the time wasn't ripe, Darwin had to do it in his own time.

    Iraq's democracy will have long-term and long-range effects on the Arab community, no? We already see the Saudi's suddenly preparing to allow elections for half of the local politicians. A democracy, finally. Some people have claimed it won't work in the ME. I see no good reason why it won't, do you?
     
    #5 Cohen, Oct 15, 2003
  6. Cohen

    Cohen Member

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    There has to be a balance, though.

    As mentioned above, al Qaeda "cannot be tamed or controlled through political compromise or conflict resolution" .

    But if the balance between the two is out-of-whack, we're in trouble. I would tend to agree that the focus seems too short-term, else we would have focused on the ME peace process also (instead of actually IGNORING it, like it would go away :rolleyes: ).
     
    #6 Cohen, Oct 15, 2003
  7. Major

    Major Member

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    Iraq's democracy will have long-term and long-range effects on the Arab community, no? We already see the Saudi's suddenly preparing to allow elections for half of the local politicians. A democracy, finally. Some people have claimed it won't work in the ME. I see no good reason why it won't, do you?

    The main difference is cultural. It remains to be seen whether a forced-Democracy is workable. The places where democracy has worked have been the ones where it was inspired locally by the people. It was a bottom-up process rather than the top-down style that's going to have to happen here.

    We've been far less successful in "implementing" democracies ourselves. For example, Haiti has not gone well at all. It remains to be seen whether we can put in place a democracy that doesn't get overrun by leaders abusing power. This is an area and a culture that has been dominated by single-person rule for most of history. Can we change that culture? Keep in mind, the concepts of freedom and democracy aren't as much of a core value for this region as it is for us.

    The only places that I can think of where we've really successfully implemented a democracy ourselves are post-WW2 Japan and Germany. Those are fairly unique in our history though because of the circumstances and destruction of WW2. In both of those cases, the countries also had limited external influences, and we poured tons of money into them. I'm not sure if either of those things are true in this scenario.

    It will certainly be an interesting experiment, though.
     
    #7 Major, Oct 15, 2003
  8. nyquil82

    nyquil82 Member

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    i can tell you it aint just muslims, its iraqis, arabs, syrians and iranians as well, not to mention europe, asia, se asia, africa...
     
    #8 nyquil82, Oct 15, 2003
  9. Cohen

    Cohen Member

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    It will be, but I have confidence that the educated Iraqis will succeed, and the fact that the previous gov was secular will probably help also. (The fact that it was a tyrannical secular gov does not help)
     
    #9 Cohen, Oct 15, 2003
  10. StupidMoniker

    StupidMoniker I lost a bet

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    I like to look at the swelling terrorist ranks in a different way. There are people who have the make-up to become terrorists, and there are people who don't. There is not and unlimited supply of potential terrorists out there. So, I say get all of the people who have happy thoughts about being a terrorist to go over to Iraq where they can be killed in an efficient military manner. At some point, you run out of terrorists and potential terrorists and the world is a better place for us normal and decent people.
     
    #10 StupidMoniker, Oct 15, 2003
  11. Maynard

    Maynard Member

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    i dont think that is a very realistic solution

    its fighting the symptons without ever addressing the disease
     
    #11 Maynard, Oct 15, 2003
  12. underoverup

    underoverup Member

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    Building on Major's point (I hope i'm not just repeating) the Soviet Bloc was built on forced Communism and did not last a century. The political structure of the Middle East is centuries old how will forced democracy stand a chance there? I see the war in Iraq and the war on terrorism in general (as this administration has handled it) as producing more hatred for the US and democracy in general. As was stated in another thread we appear to be conquerors instead of liberators.
     
    #12 underoverup, Oct 15, 2003
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