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Yulieski Gurriel agrees to 5/$47M deal with the Astros

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by rocketpower2, Jul 15, 2016.

  1. Airdough

    Airdough Member

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    If you outbid everyone, they will come.
     
  2. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    I'll admit to being on tilt from the Astros overall season and Luhnow's trade deadline, but I don't think I'd be alone saying there's either gaping holes, serious question marks or simply regression to be concerned about next season.

    The 1-4 spots in the line-up has been very good and figures to probably perform similar to slightly better if you allow for some Tuve regression and Bregman improvement. Springer has been remarkably consistent and I don't project improvement. Correa probably gets a little better but I'm not expecting a Tuve/Trout jump.

    The 5-9 spots in the order are a mess and if you told me 5 completely different players would be taking those spots I wouldn't be surprised. We know there's upside in nearly everyone (Reed, Gurriel, Teo, Castro) but if we only generated 4 positions with greater than 2-2.5 WAR (the 1-4 spots), I wouldn't be surprised.

    The starting rotation has a ton of question marks. Do DK and Mchugh regress in the positive direction? Will McCullers stay healthy enough to become an ace? Does Fister come back? Interestingly Musgrove is the guy I'm least concerned about next year; I'm expecting a 2-3 WAR year from him.

    The bullpen's been the strength of the team this year (outside of Altuve) and I expect it to be similarly good.

    With the way the team looks now no I wouldn't pencil them in for a playoff spot next season. A lot can change, but a lot of changes to the 25man have to happen.
     
  3. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Luhnow wanted an ace at the deadline. The Astros were willing to move some of their best prospects to get one. Had they got an ace; they would have been more willing to make deals for guys like Beltran or LuCroy.

    The Astros will never admit it, but after they failed to reel in a #1 starter; they became reluctant to match the type of prospect the Rangers were willing to deal.

    Also the idea that Luhnow is above lying or spin control professed by some posters (not you) is absurd. Luhnow has called players up based on arbitration status and the first thing he said after Musgrove was dominant in relief was about the Astros not dealing at the deadline because they didn't want to lose guys like Musgrove.
     
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  4. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    Nook, have I said thank you for insider perspectives? You're awesome man.
     
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  5. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    Ken Giles posted a 1.9 WAR in '15; Kimbrel 1.5. Any notion that it was "almost a prospect for prospect deal" is revisionist history, and you know it. It was a major power move designed to make the 2016 Astros better. As was the Gomez deal.

    And you're smart enough to know that it requires the other team to want one of those other prospects...

    As I said earlier, there seems to be a prevailing notion that the Astros' farm system is sooooo good, obviously teams would fall all over themselves just to have one of our heavenly prospects - and that's a wildly irresponsible idea.

    Truth is: the Astros have/had one elite position prospect (Bregman) and two elite pitching prospects (Musgrove and Martes); everyone else is either nowhere near their level or at a much lower development level. It's a good system; it's not a "we're in charge here; do what we say" system that bludgeons every other system into smithereens.
     
  6. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    Real quick...
    I've been guilty of it, too - but we need to take a really deep breath and understand how historically unprecedented the start to Correa's career has been.

    He's a 21-YO shortstop on pace to post back-to-back 130+ OPS+ seasons in his first two years in the Majors. He's 21. And - AND! - it's looking like he may be over the sophomore hump as he's been an absolute monster since mid-June (.302/.396/.546/.942 since June 9).

    In terms of 2017 bets, Correa making the Trout jump may be one of the safer ones.
     
  7. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine

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    You're the king of cherry picked statistics. Kimbrel led the league in saves and averaged a WAR of 2.875 the previous four seasons.
     
  8. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    (raises hand...)

    I'm not sure what the former has to do with the later, but just FYI - Luhnow is far from the only GM to be coy about skirting service time issues.

    And to be fair, I never said Luhnow was "above lying or spin control," I rejected the specific idea that he knowingly lied about Gurriel:
    Maybe he did - but then that assumes Luhnow knew when Gurriel signed that he would struggle this year and not be a factor - and that... that's a pretty big stretch, IMO.
     
  9. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    And you're the king of flaccid haymakers that don't land.

    Giles was a better pitcher than Kimbrel last year; calling the trade for him "almost prospect for prospect" is absolute revisionist bull****. Feel free to disagree because... Craig Kimbrel was a better pitcher in 2013, I guess....
     
  10. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine

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    No, he was a better pitcher, the best closer in baseball, four years prior. You took one season and said oooooh loooook Giles>Kimbrel. Nobody confuses Ken Giles with Craig Kimbrel except you.
     
  11. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    I think the safer bet is assuming he doesn't make another big jump because he's already producing so well. If he does it, amazing, but I'm not penciling him in for a 10 WAR season at 22.

    Heck I'm not even sure that Trout actually has 10 WAR projections. I think he just shatters more normal 6-7 WAR projections routinely.
     
  12. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Not necessarily... Astros apparently offered Miller and Robertson the most money, and the money they offered Choo was comparable (albeit, its probably a good thing they didn't get locked into that one).

    All things being equal, including money, the Astros (at this time) are very likely at a disadvantage against most big league teams... but that can very well change with a slight culture adjustment.

    They're probably going to have to overpay a tad, either in pure dollar figure or years, to land a true difference-maker.... a very similar dilemma faced by the Texans this last off-season.
     
  13. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Its amazing to watch him still making improvements in all aspects of his game... as of late, his ability to battle back from 0-2 has been impressive, and he's starting to swing more and more at those meat-balls they're serving up early in the count.

    His fielding also stabilized.
     
  14. Buck Turgidson

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    ...and after all this violence and doubletalk...

    <iframe width="420" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cvQ-IJihrJM" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
     
  15. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    Not just that, he himself said it wasn't like getting Kimbrell earlier

    He just seems to want to argue
     
  16. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    I thought you were smart enough to follow my reasoning there, you either aren't, didn't read the whole post, or just want to argue
     
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  17. Buck Turgidson

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    Dedication, devotion
     
  18. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    I'll type slowly so you (and The Beard) are able to keep up: what I said was the idea that a full-time Major League reliever - who actually posted a better WAR last year than one of the best relievers in baseball - is a prospect (or, as The Beard put it, "an almost prospect") is full-blown asinine. And that doesn't even touch that it was his *second* Major League season; this being his third. Craig Kimbrel's performance (other than contextualizing how good Giles was last year) is irrelevant.

    If your brain can't filter that, remove Craig Kimbrel - and any and every other reliever past and present - from the equation because it doesn't change the point one iota: it is asinine to call a full-time Major League reliever that posted a 1.9 WAR last year a prospect, or "almost prospect."

    The Beard was purposefully revising history to fit his narrative 1) by leaving out the Gomez trade completely; 2) by insisting the Giles trade was minor because he was an "almost prospect."
     
  19. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    If you're reasoning is that one of the best relievers in baseball last year - hell, last *two* years - is an "almost prospect," I'm not the one with questionable smarts.

    That is such a stretch to fit your anti-Luhnow narrative, I'm shocked you're stubbornly sticking with it. Ken Giles pitched in 113 Major League Baseball games prior to the trade, in which he posted a 1.56 ERA and totaled a 3.9 WAR. Again, for context: Kimbrel posted a 2.08 ERA and 3.7 WAR over the same stretch.

    If Ken Giles was an "almost prospect" this year, then so, too, was Carlos Correa.
     
    #559 Hey Now!, Aug 18, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2016
  20. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    I wasn't purposefully revising history, the Gomez trade had zero to do with what I was posting about

    And I appologize man, I was wrong about you being smart enough to understand my point on the Giles trade, my bad
     

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