Tough series to lose especially when the biggest blows came from players acquired at the trade deadline. I'll focus on the positives: Bregman is looking more like the guy we all thought he would be when he was first called up Musgrove was outstanding Kemp earned a shot to play some more. I would keep him in the 9 hole.
Expectations were far from over-zealous. They were a playoff team with as good a chance as any to beat any of the possible opponents in last year's tournament. They did play scorching hot baseball for close to 3 months (which coincided with them getting expected/replacement level production from the rest of the lineup). Its all on Luhnow for not having insurance should there be an injury and relying solely on the minor league prospects to fill-in seamlessly (which almost never happens).... and in the end, many of these and the mid-level prospects are simply going to lose more and more value the longer you hang onto them, as there is really no room at many key positions for any of them right now.
The SI expectation for this year was based on the average finish of all World Series winners, based on where they were the year before. Turns out, the team with around the 10th best record the year prior is who usually ends up winning the world series (again, its an average). The Astros finished with the 10th best record in baseball last year. Couple that with the reigning Cy Young award winner, a batting champion, a young phenom, and a toolsy guy like Springer (with a core all young and a highly ranked farm system), and you can see why they were an easy pick. SI also picked Cleveland to win it all last year... were they simply one year too early? Hell, they're still not out of this thing (albeit more likely WC vs. division) by any means. They've had an awful 2 weeks after a previously solid 3 months. They were 10 games over .500 prior to this stretch of 10 home games (with a Detroit series mixed in). But they are going to need some guys to come back to the lineup... or have Bregman/Gurriel turn into bonafide studs.
I didnt mention the rotation. But if Keuchel can regain most of his Cy Young form, we are a #1 starter away from being fine in the pitching dept. I left Gurriel/Bregman out of my post as well because we just dont know what they will contribute in the future. I will concede Valbuena is above AAAA status. Losing several key/needed contributors is part of baseball. Its happens to most teams most years. Teams that are ready for the big stage make due.
Or they make in-season trades/acquisitions to account for that. It just baffles me that they were willing to move serious prospects for Kazmir/Gomez/Fiers/Hamels last year... but not this year when they had a possibly better overall chance of having the best record in the AL this year, and by not going hard they allowed their most immediate rival/competition to get better. Another thing that irks me... all these mid-level prospects are going to jam up the works once the babies start to warrant promotions, and they're going to be traded eventually anyways. Every year we fawn over the quality of their draft... even this year, where they had a low pick. I don't see that changing any time soon. Any quality farm system that consistently replenishes itself in the draft... coupled with a core MLB roster that already has answers at several positions... should be making mid-season/off-season trades on an almost annual basis. Its a simple numbers game at that point... there's simply not going to be enough starting minor league roster spots to accommodate all the graduating/quality players.
Yes...we have way more players than we will ever be able to play. We basically just held onto a bunch of prospects that we will never need on the MLB roster. We had a golden chance for either Lucroy or Beltran, or both. Our lineup with both those guys would catapult us into the playoffs: 1B Valbuena/Marwin 2B Altuve SS Correa 3B Gurriel LF Bregman CF Marisnick RF Springer C Lucroy DH Beltran With the way our pitching staff has been pitching, this lineup is a world series contender. I cant do anything but shake my head...it just hurts so much because it made so much sense to make those moves (or any other move that would have bolstered our lineup). And it hurts double when our direct competition takes those players instead. Ugh.
Sigh. It really is sad. Even though we don't have an ace, I think we would have been able to win a series in the playoffs with our guys and a deep lineup. None of the AL pitching staffs really scare me, so I think it was certainly a missed opportunity. At the end of day not sure what Yankees wanted from us for Beltran and don't even know if we made Milwaukee an offer for Lucroy. But, I'm expecting them to be very aggressive in the offseason. We are entering what is essentially a three year window to win, because once Altuve hits FA there are no guarantees. I don't doubt the teams' commitment to resign our main guys, I just worry about our guys wanting to stay if we we don't knock on/kick down the door over the next 3/4 years.
The only possible reason I can surmise for them standing pat is... they don't believe they have the requisite pitching.... and they struck out on their ability to acquire that. Of course, they make this call after Keuchel gets destroyed on Sunday.... and since then, they merely go on to have one of the best collective weeks of starting pitching (against 2 pretty stacked lineups)... albeit the LMJ injury is a real nut-punch.
I have wondered about it as well and reached the same conclusion. Once the Astros couldn't get a #1 or #2 starter they folded. I have asked why nothing happened and no one seems to know other than it was the front offices call and the owner stayed out of it (unlike last year).
Pitching has never been the issue. It has always been about getting more consistent bats to supplement Altuve and Correa as there is not enough steady production from the other 7 spots. I would have been much more open to the idea of Lucroy or Bruce rather than Beltran. Trading at a premium for a rental bat typically doesn't work out. Unfortunately, I feel as though Luhnow was scared off due to the Gomez failure... although he shouldn't be. The thought process was correct, it just hasn't worked out.
This series was a big downer, but we got the sorry Twins for 4 and then another series against Toronto that get get us even closer in the WC hunt. We are only 4 games back and have games left against the Orioles and Toronto. Bregman is starting the find his stroke and adding Kemp at the bottom of lineup could help with some big hits in the back of the lineup. Also Gurriel could be huge when he gets here. Still have plenty of time.
On the contrary... its always an issue. Even in a year where they had the Cy-Young favorite, a solid #2-#3 guy in McHugh, and an up-and-coming phenom rookie in McCullers... they still went and got Kazmir, acquired Fiers, and were right on the cusp of getting Hamels. This year you have a regressing Keuchel, a regressing McHugh, and an extremely inconsistent Fiers. McCullers was getting into a nice groove, but is now hurt. Fister has been their most consistent guy... but he's hittable. Musgrove got his ticket punched earlier than they'd probably have liked, but so-far/so-good. The crapshoot nature of the playoffs demands solid if-not stellar pitching. And consistent pitching. The Astros as is, even if they make the playoffs, would have some serious question marks in every single game. All that being said... if you told this front office that Valbuena, Rasmus, and Gomez would all likely contribute nothing for a solid month (either due to injury or ineptness)... and all of the potential minor league replacements would struggle... I don't see any way they would just concede the season outright.
Don't count out the twins.rsngers did and bit them in the behind. Twins are hot right now. Thier playoff chances are done but they are smashing some good teams right now
I agree with all of this Nick. But something to consider. No club likes to trade away a prospect and see them bloom elsewhere. The thing about prospects is, you really dont know which ones will make it until they have some major league experience. For hitters, 500AB or so is often quoted as being a minimum view. With this said, and the organizations dedication to the long term view, it might be that it was decided to take a longer look at our top prospects before shipping them off for a partial season (Beltran) or one year rental (Lecroy). What we have done since the trade line is consistent with this idea. While Bregman, Tucker, Kemp, White and Reed wont tally 500AB's with what remains of the season, we certainly will have a better sense about them than we would otherwise by playing them as often as possible for the remainder of the season. Maybe some winter ball is in the cards for several of these guys as well.
I don't think they wanted to waste resources on a chase. Chases are extremely difficult and unpredictable. For me, it comes down not to their decisions at the deadline but their offseason, which seemed overly reliant on a small sample size - something this FO should never - in theory, anyway - fall victim to. I didn't like really like any of their three moves - they overpaid for Giles because, essentially, the bullpen broke down (after having been the team's best asset for 90% of the season); overpaid Rasmus for a blazing 2-3 well-timed weeks and failed to add a meaningful bat that could address their most glaring shortcoming as an offense; and while, whatever - you're probably better off not paying LHR any significant money when you can probably fill that spot easily from within. Now, they *have* to figure out what they have in Bregman, Reed, Kemp - I think Hernandez needs a shot... And then they have to be active this winter to address the glaring problems at the bottom of their line-up.
Astros season in a nutshell: https://www.facebook.com/HoustonTexansHoustonRocketsEverything/videos/1164916946905225/
