Arnold's win boosts GOP odds in state for 2004 By Donald Lambro Published October 8, 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Arnold Schwarzenegger's victory in the California gubernatorial-recall election bolsters President Bush's re-election prospects in a Democratic state the White House feared was unwinnable but now sees as a competitive battleground in 2004. Republican Party strategists said last night that the overwhelming vote to oust Democratic Gov. Gray Davis and the stronger-than-expected vote for the movie-star action hero — now a rising star in the party — will dramatically change the political climate in a state that is the biggest electoral prize in presidential elections. Republican officials and White House strategists said the rarely successful recall-petition process and the tumultuous campaign that followed helped energize Republicans, bring new voters into the ranks and make Mr. Davis a national example of what they say are Democrats' tax-and-spend politics and their inability to govern. "Throughout all this, the focus has been on Gray Davis' failed Democratic governorship, his enormous unpopularity. And that has united and expanded the party and can only help us next year up and down the ticket," said a Republican Party official in Washington. "Regardless of who wins, we think California is in play for us in 2004," another Republican official said early yesterday before the results were known. "Over 500,000 people who signed the petition to recall Davis were registered Democrats." Republican strategists say the party's voter registration has risen during this recall period and that many Democrats, fed up with the economic, fiscal and energy problems the state has endured during Mr. Davis' tenure, have changed registration or will be among the swing voters that can put the state into the Republican column. While Mr. Bush's job-approval numbers have declined in the past couple of months, his campaign strategists believe that is only temporary and that they will rise as the economic recovery takes hold and unemployment begins to fall. This summer, when Mr. Bush's job-approval ratings were running in the high 50s and low 60s, he was beating all of his prospective Democratic rivals in head-to-head matchups in California. That represented a sharp turnaround since the 2000 election, when he lost the state to Al Gore 53 percent to 42 percent. Earlier this year, there were some in the White House who were dubious about the recall effort, believing Republicans had a better chance in the state next year with an unpopular Democratic governor still in office. But that view seemed to fade after the recall-petition drive succeeded, the recall campaign got under way and Arnold Schwarzenegger surged past his rivals in the polls. The campaign was helping Republicans and hurting Democrats on a number of different levels. Mr. Davis was becoming the most notorious Democratic governor in the country, known for his 20 percent approval rating in a state that was falling deeply into debt and experiencing an exodus of businesses. At the same time, national news coverage of the race was eclipsing coverage of the Democratic Party's presidential campaigns, when the party needed as much media attention as it could get for a slate of candidates that remains little known to the nation at large http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20031008-125201-9780r.htm Seems like the tide is completely turning, most Americans are fed up with Democrat leadership... When was the last time Democrats got a significant electoral victory?
Perhaps, but I'm willing to bet that Arnold would have won even if he had run as a Democrat. I think people are fed up with "career politicians" more than one particular party. Can't say I blame them...
Bush will not win California, but it could tie down some Dem resources that would otherwise be spent in other states. On the other hand, many of the issues used against Davis can effectively be used against Bush. Add to that the fact that Arnold will have to make up the car tax revenues from somewhere and has no viable plan for the energy market, and potential for continuing voter disenchantment next November is high. This interesting piece from Forbes via Reuters... _________ Schwarzenegger aims to repair Calif. power market Reuters, 10.07.03, 4:30 PM ET By Leonard Anderson SAN FRANCISCO, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Arnold Schwarzenegger vows to put market economics to work to fix California's electricity market if he wins the recall election Tuesday, but critics warn his plan would merely repackage much of the state's failed deregulation law. "I give his plans a grade of 'F'. Arnold would impose a failed policy on us. It's dangerous for our economy," said Loretta Lynch, former president of the California Public Utilities Commission appointed by Democratic Gov. Gray Davis, the target of Tuesday's recall. But the plan also contains elements that energy analysts advocate, including a more competitive marketplace, new power plants, upgrading the transmission grid, and closer coordination of power supplies with neighboring states. Schwarzenegger's campaign has attacked Davis for his handling of the 2000-2001 energy crisis, which ended up costing the state billions of dollars in emergency power purchases after the lights went out. The poorly crafted 1996 law was also blamed for opening the door to market manipulation by energy traders who created artificial shortages to run up prices. Republican Schwarzenegger's energy proposal has drawn little notice in a boisterous campaign rocked by allegations of sexual harassment of women by the action movie superstar. While a Schwarzenegger spokesman was not available to discuss the energy strategy, a statement called "Solving California's Energy Crisis" on the candidate's Web site outlines a market-based strategy to "restore stability to our energy system and stimulate private investment in electricity generation and transmission." RESHAPE THE MARKET The plan calls for reshaping California's wholesale power market by borrowing from market deregulation in Texas, New England and the Middle Atlantic states and adopting the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's plan to revamp the nation's grid by creating super-regional transmission systems. Among Schwarzenegger's 16-step program is a law to speed up CPUC rulings on utility contracts to buy electricity and limit "after the fact" price reviews by state regulators. Another step calls for power generators to maintain a "critical buffer" of electricity reserves to prevent blackouts and price spikes, but offered no details. The goal is "make markets work," but Lynch called most of the steps "a retread" of the deregulation bill signed into law by former Republican Gov. Pete Wilson. That law, one of the first efforts to deregulate a state energy market, set up a wholesale spot market for electricity but capped the price utilities could charge their customers at the retail level. When wholesale prices soared, the utilities were trapped in a financial vise that shoved PG&E Corp.'s (nyse: PCG - news - people) Pacific Gas & Electric Co. into bankruptcy and forced the CPUC to bail out Southern California Edison, a unit of Edison International (nyse: PCG - news - people). The crisis was marked by a shortage of power supplies, blackouts, and the state signing long-term contracts to buy $42 billon of electricity from big energy companies. Chris Thornberg, senior economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast, said "the big problem was California never had deregulation; we had a bizarre form of reregulation that allowed small portions of the overall market to mimic a real market." Thornberg said he had not seen Schwarzenegger's plan, but said a deregulated state market "must give consumers choices and a clear set of rules. We live in a world that relies on free markets to supply more of our goods. Why should power be different?"
"Gray Davis inherited a record budget surplus - $8 billion dollars and managed to mismanage it into a record $23.6 BILLION DEFICIT." Bill Simon sound familiar ? This was the voters hatred for Gray Davis. Believe me California isnt about to vote for Bush. Maybe McCain, but never Bush. Unless he is ready to become pro-choice, pro-civil union , pro- gun control,etc. Thats what Arnold had to do. Only problem is he loses half his base to someone like Pat Buchanan.
Good point. Add to that their ever present willingness to bow to the alter of celebrity...for which I can say I blame them...
Bush won't win California in '04 but maybe he'll think he has a shot at it and waste time and money trying to. That might give Dems a better chance in some states where the votes would be really close.
I believe that they don't want half of their paychecks to go to the friggen government. I believe that the economy is going to be the primary issue, since the Democrats have no credibility on national security issues. And unfortunately for the nine dwarves, the economy is turning up markedly. Shi*ty timing, I guess.
Keep singing the virtues of the incumbency train, and keep plugging up those leaks! You only got to hold the dike for one more year and a month!
That's the ONLY way Dubya will take Cali. Dems won't have to spend anymore resources in that state than usual.....
three reasons for bush to be concerned... Yes, Schwarzenegger’s triumph proved that Republicans can still win elections in California, the nation’s largest state, which has voted emphatically for Democrats in the last three Presidential elections. <b>But Californians elected a Republican who is socially liberal, a supporter of gay rights, gun control, and abortion rights. President Bush is none of these. </b> Yes, Californians voted out a candidate who they thought was captive to special interests that showered him with millions of dollars in contributions in return for favorable treatment. <b>But Bush has now broken all fund-raising records, and Democrats are trying to make a 2004 campaign issue out of allegations that Administration officials funnel lucrative contracts to cronies and contributors.</b> Yes, Californians voted out an incumbent who failed to make the tough decisions to balance the budget. The pro-recall supporters included 47 percent of Hispanics and 46 percent of union members, according to an ABC News exit poll analysis.<b> But another incumbent who has failed to make the tough decisions to balance the budget will be on the Presidential ballot next year. </b>
But Californian's are lemmings who bow to the alter of celebrity. If Arnold does a decent job--or at least gives the appearance of doing a decent job--and embraces Bush, he could very well rub his blessings and approval off on Bush. On the other hand, Arnold ran as an outsider, fed up with politics as usual. Bush is politics as usual. So Arnold's victory could just be an early sign of the fierce resentment towards politics Democrats, Republicans, Bush, his deficits and the wars have engendered. So this could go either way. It will be fun however to watch the partisans spin Arnold's victory every which way to make their "side" look better.
Are you in California? If not, then who cares what you believe. I'm talking about Californians. Democrats have no credibility on National Security ? Yeah, tell John Kerry and Wes Clark that. They know from first hand experince what its like to secure and defend a nation. They risked their lives defending this country. No credibility my ass... 7 purple hearts compared to someone going in AWOL .... How has Bush secured this nation? Flying around in air force one? Selling his sept. 11 pictures for the campaign? Oooo he's talking in a bullhorn, oh man he is brave.... Good luck trying to use Sept 11 for political purposes. Thats going to backfire ... 3,000,000 out of jobs since Bush took office.... 22,000,000 jobs created under Clinton... thats a -25,000,000 Good luck on the economy...
Here's a problem... "I will make sure that I can meet with President Bush as quickly as possible, because I have a whole bunch of business, California business, to talk to him about and take care of," Schwarzenegger said during a short news conference at the Century Plaza Hotel. "There's a lot of money we can get from the federal government." Now this looks like a non-starter. Bush has been tighfisted when it comes to helping hte states. If he gives money to California, the other states are going to want their share. If he then refuses to help other states, even the GOP governors who aren't named Arnold will riot. But this is a good startegy. After all, Arnold only has to plug an $8 billion gap in the budget, repeal the car tax, and boost education spending while not raising any other taxes. I wonder why that moron davis didn't think of asking Bush for help?
