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Kevin Durant to Warriors (Two years, $54.3M)

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by batkins, Jul 4, 2016.

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BamBam Contributing Member

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Some people are just weak minded. Durant is riding coat-tails, plain and simple!
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#261 BamBam, Jul 4, 2016

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B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

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Nook said: ↑

Barring a plane crash or malaria.... The Warriors are winning the title.

Rebounding doesn't matter much when you have arguably 3 of the 4 best shooters in the NBA. ..... Curry/Thompson/Durant/Green/who cares...
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I am probably crazy but I'm still not so sure. Curry/Thompson/Durant showed they can all go pretty cold in the playoffs with decent defense draped on them and the expectations maxed out.

Their interior is all Green now. That's it.

#262 B-Bob, Jul 4, 2016
dc rock Contributing Member

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I feel like an injury will get in the way of their dreams, though.

#263 dc rock, Jul 4, 2016
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I dont really see why anybody can hate on the move I mean why woukdnt you want to have the best teammates possible... In fact I like the move it shows KD is committed to winning rings above everything else.

Scary for the rest of the league tho.

#264 K-Low_4_Prez, Jul 4, 2016
Scarface281 Contributing Member

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pippendagimp said: ↑

it's not that simple b/c he's the superstar face of his team. and he just let them huge by choking badly in the last series. to compare him to an HP employee is not appropriate. he's like the founding CEO who F's up and causes his own stock to crash, and then just parachutes out the back and joins the main rival competitor.
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This is the correct analogy.

#265 Scarface281, Jul 4, 2016
Solaris Member

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Hahahahahahhaaaaahhahahahhahhahahahahaha!

#266 Solaris, Jul 4, 2016
treyk3 Member

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He joined a team whose super fan cursed him.

#267 treyk3, Jul 4, 2016

Fantasma Negro Member

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BigTex said: ↑

They will lose Barnes, Bogut, Ezili.
Barbosa, Speights, Clark, Mcadoo, Varejao are free agents

Which players/ring chasers will join them for minimum?
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I think they can get all but Barnes and Bogut to come back for minimum contracts

#268 Fantasma Negro, Jul 4, 2016
crimmy88 Member

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BigTex said: ↑

They will lose Barnes, Bogut, Ezili.
Barbosa, Speights, Clark, Mcadoo, Varejao are free agents

Which players/ring chasers will join them for minimum?
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The mercenary, Ray Allen.

#269 crimmy88, Jul 4, 2016
jacoby Member

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K-Low_4_Prez said: ↑

I dont really see why anybody can hate on the move I mean why woukdnt you want to have the best teammates possible... In fact I like the move it shows KD is committed to winning rings above everything else.

Scary for the rest of the league tho.
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Why wouldn't fans of other teams want this? Because the chances of 29 other teams winning a championship in the next 5 or 6 years is virtually zero. I'm not sure how a fan of any other team can be excited about this.

#270 jacoby, Jul 4, 2016
stab Member

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FTW Rockets FTW said: ↑

I am super excited to watch all 98 Warriors games next season on National TV

To hell with Root Sports
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Not really, considering that most of their games will be over by halftime...yawn

#271 stab, Jul 4, 2016
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Raven said: ↑

This guy can't be calling anyone soft ever again.

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i guess he won't be calling dwight a p*** anymore.

#272 zcarenow, Jul 4, 2016
zeeshan2 Member

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A team that just won a record 73 games isn't supposed to be able to add a former MVP in his prime.

After they fell a game short of their second consecutive championship, that's the historic opportunity the rising salary cap gave the Golden State Warriors, who successfully pitched Kevin Durant on joining up with two-time MVP Stephen Curry and All-Stars Draymond Green and Klay Thompson.

With Durant, are the Warriors even better than last season? Is this the greatest team ever assembled? And how long can they expect to contend for championships with four stars all in their 20s?

What the Warriors might look like with Durant
While it's remarkable that Golden State even had the opportunity to make room for Durant, doing so won't be painless.

First, the Warriors must pass on matching the Dallas Mavericks' reported max offer sheet for Harrison Barnes -- though that's not a big deal because Durant takes Barnes' spot in the starting lineup.

Next, they will almost certainly trade starting center Andrew Bogut, clearing his $11.7 million salary off the books. Last, Golden State can decide between renouncing the rights to free agent center Festus Ezeli or trading backup guard Shaun Livingston.

The Warriors will also have to renounce most of their other free agents, although they could keep the rights to at least one of James Michael McAdoo and Brandon Rush if they retain Livingston and potentially both of them if they keep the slightly cheaper (in terms of salary-cap hit) Ezeli.

After signing Durant, Golden State would then have the $2.9 million room exception available and would have to fill out the remainder of the roster with players making the minimum salary. Barring some unexpectedly good players signing on to chase championship rings -- less likely this summer with so much money available in free agency -- the Warriors would be sacrificing much of their depth to sign Durant.

Projecting the 2016-17 Warriors
For the moment, I'm going to assume Golden State trades Livingston and keeps Ezeli and McAdoo to have some depth in the frontcourt. That would produce a rotation that projects like this based on the multi-year, predictive version of ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) as well as my projections for rookies Damian Jones and Patrick McCaw.

Warriors' projected RPM
Player MPG OffRPM DefRPM
Stephen Curry 34 5.6 0.8
Klay Thompson 33 2.4 -0.3
Kevin Durant 34 4.1 0.8
Draymond Green 34 2.6 4.3
Festus Ezeli 25 -0.8 1.9
Andre Iguodala 25 0.5 1.2
Damian Jones 5 -2.0 -1.1
Kevon Looney 5 -0.2 -0.9
James Michael McAdoo 20 -0.6 -0.7
Patrick McCaw 15 -0.6 -0.5
Total 7.7 3.9
Because the Warriors would still have to fill out the roster, I've included about 2,800 minutes of replacement-level play in their projection. Even with those replacement-level minutes, Golden State projects to have a net rating of plus-11.6 points per 100 possessions -- identical to last year's mark.

Typically, a plus-11.6 net rating would translate to about 66 wins, seven fewer than the Warriors won last year thanks to their dominance in the clutch and tendency to struggle in the late stages of blowouts. It's certainly possible Golden State could be a better team in terms of advanced stats and win fewer games if those categories regress to the mean.

At the same time, it's worth noting that the RPM projections are designed to be conservative. Last year, the Warriors had the league's best projection at an even 60 wins. So Golden State does look better on paper with Durant than the team that won 73 games.

As nobody knows better than the Warriors, what happens in the playoffs counts more than the regular season. And the ability to extend minutes for their stars while cutting those for the weak bench in the postseason should make Golden State even better than this projection might imply.

I'm not sure the Warriors are "light years ahead" of the competition, but adding Durant strengthens their position as heavy favorites to win a second title -- in no small part by neutering an Oklahoma City Thunder team that took them to seven games in the Western Conference finals.

Projecting Golden State in 2017-18 and beyond
How dominant the Warriors remain in future years will hinge in part on Durant's desire to maximize his earning potential. Because he'll have an additional year of experience and the cap is expected to rise again next summer, Durant could opt out -- if he signs a two-year deal with a player option -- and make a projected maximum of $35 million. However, Golden State would have to fit that figure under the cap.

Add the guaranteed contracts on the books and Curry's cap hold to Durant's $35 million, and the Warriors would have about $13 million left to re-sign Iguodala and potentially re-sign Livingston. A multi-year contract for Ezeli would also come out of this figure, so Golden State would again have to sacrifice depth to max out Durant. And the Warriors won't have their first-round pick in 2017, which they traded to the Utah Jazz three years ago in order to sign Iguodala.

Still, we're talking about potentially the greatest assemblage of prime talent in NBA history. We've seen plenty of big threes before, but never four All-Stars age 28 or younger. According to RPM, Golden State would have three of the league's top eight players in 2015-16 -- Curry, Green and Durant.

Moreover, if used correctly, the Warriors' stars should make life easy for the lesser role players around them. Steve Kerr can keep at least either Curry or Durant on the court at all times, an almost unimaginable luxury that allows Golden State to focus on shooting and defense from the other spots on the court without having to worry much about the need to create shots.

Meanwhile, age works in the Warriors' favor the further out we project. At some point LeBron James' age is bound to show in the playoffs, while the San Antonio Spurs will have a tough time maintaining the same elite play as Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili near retirement.

The next great challenger to the Golden State might be some team too young to even be on the horizon yet, like the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Having added Durant, the Warriors figure to be the best team in the NBA for the foreseeable future. And that's a terrifying proposition for the rest of the league.
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http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/16739486/are-golden-state-warriors-greatest-team-ever-kevin-durant-nba

#273 zeeshan2, Jul 4, 2016

mr. 13 in 33 Member

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#274 mr. 13 in 33, Jul 4, 2016

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dc rock said: ↑

I feel like an injury will get in the way of their dreams, though.
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Same. Either an ankle or foot.

#275 Scarface281, Jul 4, 2016
what Member

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B-Bob said: ↑

I am probably crazy but I'm still not so sure. Curry/Thompson/Durant showed they can all go pretty cold in the playoffs with decent defense draped on them and the expectations maxed out.

Their interior is all Green now. That's it.
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That's what I've been trying to say. Slow the game down, get them in the have court (like the grizzlies can) and they are toast!

Like I said, I LOVE this move for the grizzlies.

#276 what, Jul 4, 2016
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We have to get the right point guard. As long as we get the right point guard to run this offense I think we still contend. Protect the rim, take care of the ball and let's see what happens in the playoffs

#277 Fantasma Negro, Jul 4, 2016
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Thunder fans are now burning Kevin Durant jerseys<a href="https://t.co/G8vQY5QSNJ">pic.twitter.com/G8vQY5QSNJ</a></p>— The Sports Quotient (@SportsQuotient) <a href="https://twitter.com/SportsQuotient/status/750003154800955393">July 4, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Thunder statement on Durant's departure: <a href="https://t.co/dzx18qSVoh">pic.twitter.com/dzx18qSVoh</a></p>— Howard Beck (@HowardBeck) <a href="https://twitter.com/HowardBeck/status/750004475876745216">July 4, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Big week for every other team in the NBA when they package horrible games to make you buy Warriors tickets</p>— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) <a href="https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/status/750003813549940736">July 4, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

#278 zeeshan2, Jul 4, 2016

Hakeemtheking Member

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Major said: ↑

This is exactly it. It's the San Antonio model on steroids. All team-first players. Durant and Curry are giving up scoring titles and MVP awards. Everyone is going to have lower stats and play fewer minutes. And all are happy to do it to win and try to do unheard of things in the NBA.

They start with the goal of 96-0 and see how close they can get. They get to play with like-minded players. They've proven they can carry teams, but now they don't need to, preserving their bodies and extending all their careers. They get to live in a great place and they all get to get paid. It's hard to imagine a more perfect scenario. It's amusing to see people saying he should give that all up for his own ego and to get adoration from fans.
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Exactly. KD gets to play with a bunch of unselfish, talent players near of the most iconic cities in the world. A lot of us would make the same choices.

Who are we to tell a player where to go play? Lol.

#279 Hakeemtheking, Jul 4, 2016
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hakeemthagreat said: ↑

But people still respect lebron and he did this TWICE? Both are cowards. Fans don't compare about the competition aspects of the game anymore either
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Remind me of exactly when Lebron James left his team for a team that had a better record the previous year and had just beaten him in the playoffs? This isn't like Lebron forming a super team in Miami. The closest comparison would be if Lebron had joined the Celtics right after they knocked him out of the playoffs in 2010.

#280 Steve_Francis_rules, Jul 4, 2016

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