[Eastern Conference Semifinals] (2)Toronto vs. (3)Miami

It's kind of a slog watching these 2 teams though. Missed point blank lay ups, badly bricked and airball 3s, sub 30% shooting from star players, rookies playing significant minutes, missed free throws in clutch time. I mean I'll still watch but...

 

Game 7, good for Toronto that they have home court.

 

This series has set basketball back 10yrs.

 

Whiteside out for game 7

 

Yep, they're fighting for the right to get slaughtered by CLE in the ECF.

They had Game 7 against Brooklyn at home 2 years ago and lost. Hell, just 2 weeks ago, they did everything in their power to cough up a 16-point 4th quarter Game 7 lead vs IND. I think Miami takes it on Sunday.

 

This series is like watching basketball from 2001. I'll stick with raptors in 7

 

Wish I had the confidence you have in Miami.

Only going with Toronto because they're at home. Other than that...¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Both are 2-1 at home this series.

Spoiler

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">History favors Miami.<br>The Heat have won 4 straight Game 7s (6-3 all-time). <a href="https://t.co/SAIbItGx7f">pic.twitter.com/SAIbItGx7f</a></p>&mdash; NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNNBA/status/731318858452209664">May 14, 2016</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Remarkable run for Wade/Spoelstra/Riley, pushing Raptors to 7th game. If only Heat had Bosh, Dan Gilbert might have combusted in ECF.</p>&mdash; Adrian Wojnarowski (@WojVerticalNBA) <a href="https://twitter.com/WojVerticalNBA/status/731319693307314177">May 14, 2016</a></blockquote>
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Knowing raptors, they will choke game 7

 

Reps for someone with ESPN Insider if you can post the following article. The login I've been using for 10+ years finally stopped working lol. Thanks.

http://espn.go.com/chalk/insider/st...-heat-vs-toronto-raptors-game-7-betting-guide

 

Which team would actually beat Cleveland at least once to make it a 5 game series?

That would be the team I want to win. However, as neither team has given any confidence for that to happen, might as well let the Raptors win to get to the ECF where they have never been before.

Also it would be really funny for the only Canadian team to the get to the NBA Final Four the same year that no Canadian hockey team makes the playoffs...

 

Nothing groundbreaking, but here you go my man:

Dave Tuley

ESPN Staff Writer

We have an NBA Playoffs Game 7 on Sunday, with the Toronto Raptors hosting the Miami Heat for the right to face the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals.

As is tradition here at ESPN Chalk, we bring you a Game 7 betting guide designed to help you handicap the winner-take-all game. Coincidentally, the two Game 7's in the first round involved both of these teams (or maybe not coincidentally, if you believe the Eastern Conference has a bunch of equally matched teams after Cleveland). Yours truly, Dave Tuley, didn't have an opinion in the Hornets-Heat Game 7 and the Heat ended up winning and covering as a 6.5-point home favorite. I did give out the Pacers +6, and they covered in an 89-84 loss to the Raptors, even though Toronto won and advanced.

With the favorites winning both games straight-up and splitting 1-1 against the spread, that makes Game 7 home teams 27-9 SU (75 percent) and 22-14 ATS (61.1 percent).

ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) gives the Raptors a 68 percent chance to win this game, so that's lower than the historical trend (of course, the Raptors are not as highly regarded as a lot of teams with home-court advantage that have been taken to a Game 7, and the Heat have a much stronger playoff history -- and they have had a lot of support as underdogs in this series). The money line also reflects this, with Toronto -200 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and the Heat at +175.

ESPN Stats & Info has a lot of historical data to help you handicap this game though, frankly, a lot will come down to whether you believe the Heat's playoff experience (and especially Dwyane Wade) gives them a significant edge, or think the up-and-coming Raptors are ready to take that next step and overcome the franchise's past shortcomings.

Once you digest all this information, I'll give my take.
ESPN Stats & Info - Heat/Raptors Game 7 breakdown

Both teams are playing their second Game 7 of this postseason. The winner of this game will be the first team to win two Game 7s in a single postseason since the 2013 Heat. That Heat team beat the Pacers in Game 7 of the Conference Finals and the Spurs in Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

Dwyane Wade is seeking an 11th playoff series win after trailing in the series. Only Derek Fisher and Robert Horry (12 apiece) have won more in NBA history (source: Elias Sports Bureau).

The Heat have won their last four Game 7s. Should they win Sunday, they would match the second-longest win streak in NBA postseason history: the Boston Celtics (1957-1969) have the most with 10 straight; Heat would tie the Los Angeles Lakers (1988-2002) and Celtics (1984-1988) with five in a row.

The Heat as a franchise are 6-3 all-time in Game 7s, current head coach Erik Spoelstra is 4-1.

This is only the Heat's second career Game 7 on the road. Miami lost its first attempt on the road in the 2009 first round vs. Atlanta. That is the only Game 7 loss of Erik Spoelstra's career.

Dwyane Wade is 5-2 in his career in Game 7s, but his stats aren't great. Wade has averaged 20.3 PPG, below his career playoff average, and shot 41 percent from the field. Only one of Wade's seven Game 7s has been played on the road. In that game, Wade scored 31 points.

The Raptors are 1-2 all-time in Game 7s, with the lone win coming this season in the first round vs. Indiana. They are 1-1 at home all-time in Game 7s.

DeMar DeRozan has played in two Game 7s and has averaged 24.0 PPG in the two. Kyle Lowry has played in three Game 7s and averaged 15.7 PPG.

Miami is facing elimination for the fourth time this postseason. If Miami wins Game 7 it will make history. No team has ever won two series in the same postseason after trailing 3-to-2.

If the Heat win tonight, they become the first team in NBA playoff history to win 4 straight series after trailing 3-to-2.

Erik Spoelstra is 10-4 in games facing elimination. Among active head coaches with at least 10 such games coached, he has the highest win percentage.

The Raptors are 7-7 all-time when facing playoff elimination and 6-2 at home. Current head coach Dwane Casey is 1-2 when facing elimination with the lone win coming vs. the Pacers in the opening round.

The Heat are 15-5 under Erik Spoelstra with a chance to close out a playoff series, but 4-5 on the road. The franchise is 25-18 all-time in close-out games.

The Raptors are 2-6 all-time with a chance to close out a playoff series. They are 1-2 this season. They are 1-1 all-time at home, including the Game 7 win this season in the first round over Indiana.

Raptors current head coach, Dwane Casey, is 1-4 with a chance to close out a series.

For the Raptors to win Game 7, they'll need someone other than Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan to step up. Lowry and DeRozan attempted more than half of the Raptors field goal attempts (48/82), scoring 59 points in Game 6.

Over the last two games, Lowry and DeRozan have combined for 118 of the team's 190 points (62 percent). They two have also combined for 95 of the team's 163 field goal attempts (58 percent).

With the series now shifting back to Toronto, the Raptors hope to see the best from DeRozan. He has averaged better than 23 PPG at home this postseason.

The Raptors bench has provided little to no impact over the last two games. The bench has averaged 15.5 PPG compared to 33.5 for the Heat.

Goran Dragic scored a game-high 30 points on 12-of-21 shooting in Game 6, a new postseason career high. It has been Dragic, not Wade, who has been the dominant player when the Heat are facing elimination this postseason. In the last two elimination games, Dragic is averaging 27.5 PPG.

Luol Deng only had two points in Game 6, but the team was plus-11 with him on the floor. For the postseason, he's been perhaps the most valuable Heat player. Miami is plus-81 when Deng is on the floor, highest of any player on the team. Miami is minus-11 when he's not on the floor.

Miami has posted the most efficient defense in the NBA this postseason. The Heat are allowing 96.3 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs, best of any team.

Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat

Spread: Toronto -4.5
Over/under: 189
PickCenter analysis

Tuley's take: That's a lot of info to process, but while I do side with Miami because of the two franchises' disparate playoff histories (and that's part of why it's easier to fade home team's overall success rates in Game 7s), the main reason I'm willing to take the underdog here is because we're getting points in a game between two teams that have proven to be equally matched.

That's usually the case when a series is tied 3-3, but even more so in this situation, as we've also had three overtime games. I also like the fact that the Heat lead 4-2 ATS, including covers in the first two games in Toronto (the Heat didn't cover as a 4.5-point road 'dog in Game 5). If you look at this series from a favorite vs. underdog perspective, it's 3-3 ATS, but the Raptors certainly should have covered in their Game 4 loss at Miami (the Heat ended up covering as a 4.5-point favorite in a 94-87 victory thanks to the extra time), so the underdogs should really be 4-2 ATS.

This game could very well go to overtime, or at least come down to the final few possessions, so the +4.5 is certainly attractive from that standpoint. With the playoff pressure that Wade and his teammates are more accustomed to, I'd rather have my money on them in crunch time.

Tuley's pick: Heat +4.5

 

I wouldn't exactly call it confidence in Miami, as it is much more lack of confidence in Toronto. A battle-tested veteran playoff team (Miami) vs a group that never been this far before as a group (Toronto).

I'll give a perfect example. Back in 2005, when Detroit played Miami in the ECF; the battle-tested (and defending champion) Pistons took on a young up-and-coming Heat team (even though Shaq was on the roster). Miami was the #1 seed and had home court advantage. They (like Toronto in this series) lost Game 1 on their home floor.

FWIW, the 1st 6 games in this series played out exactly like that 2005 ECF as far as home/away wins:

Game 1: MIA (road) | 2005: DET (road)
Game 2: TOR (home) | 2005: MIA (home)
Game 3: TOR (road) | 2005: MIA (road)
Game 4: MIA (home) | 2005: DET (home)
Game 5: TOR (home) | 2005: MIA (home)
Game 6: MIA (home) | 2005: DET (home)

Game 7, 2005 ECF: DET on the road was down 66-64 after 3. They outscored MIA 24-16 in the 4th to win the game 88-82.

TL; DR: A team with championship resolve, that keeps their composure, and "stays the course" usually win these type of games (home OR away). That's why I am going with Miami on Sunday.

The only way I see TOR winning is if the game is a "SA/OKC Game 1" type rout. Because I expect the game to be close and the crowd extremely nervous, I don't think MIA will be fazed or rattled.

 

Miami with Whiteside actually has great chance to defeat Cleveland in 7 games series.

 

Hah thanks, couldn't rep. Wanted to see the article out of curiosity, bc I didn't even know ESPN did these.

 

No way. Miami with Whiteside + Bosh has a CHANCE to beat Cleveland. Only Whiteside and no Bosh, they might win a game or two.

If Miami wins tomorrow, I'd expect Whiteside to be available for Game 2 at the latest. He travelled with the team to Toronto bc they are going straight to Cleveland if they win. If they didn't think he'd be ready for Games 1/2, they would've left him in Miami.

 

If the raptors lose I want to see shots of the fans outside. They never show them when they lose.

 

Leggo Raptors!

 

Look for Toronto to close this one out. They ain't losing at home. Please if Miami wins, I don't want this as someone's signature and I'm not eating crow or whatever you call it. Cool?

 

Mark Jackson just said rim protection big men are overrated. That you could give him 5 small guys and they can protect is just as well.

Wat?

Sure some teams work better with small ball but I think having a big man in the paint can help more than 5 smaller defenders. Is Mark Jackson right?

 

I think he said he would take 5 smaller guys who can defend well then 1 big guy who rim protects. The Warriors playing vs Rockets with Dwight pretty much.