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What is the main reason for this teams struggle this year?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by eslate22, Mar 19, 2016.

  1. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Sigh... You are not understanding a basic concept.

    It's not that the data is skewed one way or the other with players with smaller smaple sizes. It's more like the data becomes less relevant the smaller the sample size.

    A better analysis would be the drpm of shooting guards with relevant playing time. You can decide yourself how many minutes that would be. I would say do a DRPM ranking of shooting guards who play more than 20 mpg. I didn't even make a conclusion if eliminating all the shooting guards with little to no playing time would help or hurt Harden's case.
     
  2. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    If you are a scrub in the NBA and put forth less than average defensive effort, you aren't even going to sniff playing time.

    I'm speaking about effort, not talent. I'm referring to the willingness of players to chase around opponents or fight through screens. If a NBA player is the 11th or 12th man on a roster, or lives by 10 day contracts, you bet your ass he is going to put forth the effort or else he isn't going to sniff anymore playing time.
     
  3. neruto

    neruto Member

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    No, you are the one who is keep making faulty arguments here. What is the definition of small sample size in this case? Isn't 97 players already too small? Or is it too big? I'm saying you accusations are wholly unrelated to this issue and completely arbitrary in nature.
     
  4. neruto

    neruto Member

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    And however much effort you put in, you can still be a disastrously bad defender. Your point is moot.
     
  5. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Oh boy.

    I'm not sure if you are trolling at this point but to make things clear, when I refer to 'sample size' in this case, I'm not referring to the number of NBA players designated as 'shooting guard'. I'm referring to each shooting guard's amount of time played on the court. I'm suggesting to throw out some of those 97 players who receive little to no playing time.
     
  6. neruto

    neruto Member

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    What are you talking about? Minutes per game is not equivalent to 'sample size'.
    And as I said, setting arbitrary cut off line doesn't necessarily mean it will affect Harden't ranking negatively.
     
  7. dmoneybangbang

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    Those other shooting guards don't have a usage like Harden so "they don't put forth the effort on offensive end" on the flip side.
     
  8. basketballholic

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    Defensive RPM doesn't take into account offensive turnovers, which are a net -2, one point taken away from the offense and 1 point given up by the defense. And Hardens turnovers are the worst turnovers a player can make.

    Hardens steal/turnover ratio is too low for for a primary playmaker.
     
  9. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    OMG... you are lost.

    Sample size refers to the amount of available data there is available at least in this context. So a player who has less playing time has less data available.
     
  10. neruto

    neruto Member

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    You seem to have little knowledge about what RPM is. RPM is adjusted for the quality of teammates and opponents. How long you play with them is not a significant factor. I would say 10 minutes per game is enough to get relevant information.
     
  11. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    I agree. Yes, a player who plays 5 minutes is going to have far more energy to expend on defense than a player who plays 38 minutes.

    I'm pretty sure if Harden was regulated to scrub minutes, his defense would drastically improve. That's why I have an issue with stating that his is a slightly below average defender based on the metric that he is 43rd out of 92 NBA shooting guards in DRPM.

    How about we only include shooting guards that have relevant playing time? Is he still 'slightly' below average?
     
  12. HtownsRockyTop

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    Best and smartest comment I have read on here so far. Although someone earlier posted that they were eslate22 roommate I actually truly am. Let me start by saying I'm not a harden hater nor do I think that the rockets are a better team without him anyone who has that notion is just an idiot. what I a trying to imply is that the reason for such a huge regression lies in the huge regression of hardens play at the defensive end of the court. This is a guy who last year single handedly almost took this team to a finals. and offensively his numbers are pretty similar to that of last year so I'm left with no other choice but to point to the defensive liability he is causing to this team. His man constantly gets away from him or he stands flat footed watching a player blow by him which all leads to easy defensive break downs which in return makes the team as a defensive unit look bad. I'm not putting all blame on him in this regard cause howard the huge titty baby is a shell of himself and hes simply as well as rest of team tired of picking up defensive lapses for harden. look at what opposing players are averaging against harden when facing him offensively. The point of all this is yes harden is a great scorer and the other stats I think are a little inflated simply due to the fact that his usage and on ball minutes his higher than anyone else in league. Your star players are suppose to be the leaders of this team and that starts with leading by example on the court. if your team sees you giving minimal effort on one end while totally dominating the possession at the other what do you think the effort is going to be? not so good right. Am I saying blow this team up no! but I am saying that its time to face facts that harden hasn't taken this team anywhere ( and please dont say western conference finals cause be honest folks barring a monumental choke job by clippers we were all but done in second round) and he may not be the star or leader this team hoped he would be to take us all the way. l like fchowd would in a heartbeat take a two way player like butler or a pg like lillard over harden in a heartbeat without shedding a tear. What I'm saying now is its pointless to continue on this road of mediocrity especially this season. right now we need to start playing players like kj Harrell and capella more minutes as well as Beasley. it makes no sense to make it in playoffs when we all know whats going to happen. As for harden lets just pray he finds his 2014 form cause if he does the skys the limit for this team. Thanks
     
  13. neruto

    neruto Member

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    Still doesn't mean

    bad defender expending more energy = will play good defense
     
  14. neruto

    neruto Member

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    You seem to be really lost here. What's the point of your argument if excluding small playing time players don't affect Harden's ranking negatively? Prove that or just admit your defeat.
     
  15. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    The less you play, the more an individual action affects your ratings.

    A player who plays 3 minutes per game only during garbage time is going to have some skewed ratings because one 'oppsies' will have a dramatic effect on ratings.
     
  16. neruto

    neruto Member

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    And to which direction it would skew is completely unknown. What's your point dude.
     
  17. HtownRock

    HtownRock Member

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    all-star tier players who are definitely worse on D than Harden :

    Kyrie Irving

    DRPM : -3.41
    DBPM - -1.5
    Drtg : 106
    DWS : 1.4

    Damian Lillard

    DRPM : -3.37
    DBPM : -1.9
    Drtg : 110
    DWS : 1.3

    Demar DeRozan

    DRPM : -2.53
    DBPM : -1.2
    Drtg : 108
    DWS : 2.1
     
  18. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Exactly. Which means that not all of those 92 shooting guards should be on that list for worthwhile analysis. I'm not making a conclusion one way or the other. Hell, if you eliminate all the scrubs, he might be 25 out of 50 or he might be 35 out of 40.
     
  19. neruto

    neruto Member

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    You were saying at first that Harden would be at the bottom if we excluded those small sample size cases. Now you have changed your position, because I called you out on it. Just admit your defeat.
     
  20. kjayp

    kjayp Member

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    Main reason? Terrible coaching!

    The terrible coaching is evident in the lack of accountability which results in laziness and lack of effort (defensively, boxing out, etc...)

    So terrible coaching and players taking advantage of the lack thereof...

    See the sig for the most obvious results from the poor coaching - although it extends to other players and efforts as well...
     

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