Also, Trump had the polls on his side the day before the caucuses, which was in no small part because of wrong poll assumptions that showed Trump as the beneficiary from an unusually high turnout. As it turned out, Cruz was right about there being a lot more conservatives votes available than what we had seen over the past two presidential cycles. Trump was up by 5 points in the final RCP poll average and most of the experts thought Trump was likely to win, but most of them said it was possible that Cruz could come from behind and pull it off, although the polls were suggesting otherwise. In the end, Cruz beat Trump by 4 points. That is a 9 point swing. The polls were wrong again.
Agree with you, but I for one won't soon forget his zeppelin leaflet technique, that surely helped him with certain frightened voters. If that kind of dishonesty is fair game, I hate to see what he would do in an executive position. I'm not even, for the moment, being partisan. It just disturbs me as a citizen. His body of work seems fairly anything-to-win anything-for-attention sleazy to me.
Also insane that he was able to win because he spouts off crazy blabber about Iran shooting Nuclear missiles straight into the air and causing deadly electro-magnetic impulses. That was the biggest obstacle that he had to overcome, and yet he managed. That was incredibly more difficult to pull over on people than anything Trump or the ethanol lobby could throw at him.
I heard on the radio this morning that something like 6 districts were essentially tied for Clinton/Bernie, and that the dems used a coin flip to determine a winner? Can anyone shed any light on the thought process behind that? Hillary won all 6 coin flips, as well. There's like a 1.5% chance of that happening. Something smells funny about that.
I had this discussion with my Republican business partner and he is chalking it to the "I believe in the Bible and that's all that matters." voters. Iowa has a lot of those. Even though Cruz has taken a lot of the Evangelical vote Carson is much more of the true believer and there are those who continue to support him on that.
Polls don't matter as much in a caucus state and from what I recall the polls haven't been that accurate in the Iowa. Turnout and organization make a huge difference and Cruz did great jobs on both.
Everybody here knows this is the major reason (not the only one) Cruz did so well last night. Cruz was organized with all the 99 counties. Trump was not.
I'm not too surprised about Cruz. I've been saying since forever that he's smarter and shrewder and a better politician than all the other hacks in the field. I hate him, but he has talent.
So. Rubio polled surprisingly well in Iowa. Could this eventually swing in his favor? I'd prefer him to Cruz and Trump. Think any of the guys dropping out of the race can really help Rubio garner even more votes.
I think for Rubio, it's all about who drops out when. If a bunch of the other clowns drop after NH, then he could stand to do very well in Super Tuesday, depending on his ground game. I prefer him to Cruz and Trump also, but I don't think he has the mad political skillz of Cruz.
Strange that such a tiny state with half the population of Harris County can have such an effect on national politics.
Seriously what are Cruz's prospects in a general election? 1. The GOP vehemently hates him. What governor, senator, or representative will help him deliver swing states if they think he's an untouchable? 2. The demographics don't favor him. How many white, ultra conservative, churchgoing voters are there in this country? Even the Iowa numbers show huge swaths of voters coming to their senses and going for Rubio at the last minute. Can Ted "scorched-earth" Cruz make inroads with on-the-fence voters? I.E. people who don't already despise him?
FOUND: DONALD'S TRUMP'S ORIGINAL DRAFT OF HIS SPEECH LAST NIGHT: "Iowa, you're a bunch of losers. Losers! I said I'd come back to Iowa, but let's be honest- I'm never coming back here. I don't hang out with losers. You know, I said I might buy a farm in Iowa- I think I'll buy your state instead. That's right- it won't be called Iowa anymore, it will be called Trump. Des Moines, Trump. Cedar Rapids, Trump. Sounds good, right? Because I'm the best, and you people are stupid. After I buy your state, I might make you leave. I'll make you go to Idaho, or Montana, or... Canada- yes, Canada- if you think that Canadian-born loser you picked last night is so great, I think I'll deport you all to Canada. And then I'll build a wall from Vancouver to Halifax- and I'll make those Canucks pay for it! Losers. All of you. Ted Cruz is a loser, Hillary Clinton is a loser, and you know who the biggest loser of all is? John Wayne. You think John Wayne is so great b/c he's an Iowan? Loser. What did he win, one Academy Award when he was 80? One. Loser. What else you have, Ashton Kutcher? Another loser Iowan. Charlie Sheen craps out actors like him for breakfast. Oh, that's rude? Stop it- you're all a bunch of fat, ugly women with blood coming out of your eyes, or ears, or armpits, or whatever... Losers. That's OK, Iowa- I'm going to win New Hampshire, then the Republican nomination, then I'm going to destroy, destroy Hillary Clinton in the general election. You're looking at the next President of the United States, and you better watch out, Iowa, because my first of many executive orders will be to establish eminent domain on your state. Look that up, losers. My plane waits."
Trump is riding the free publicity. He is not working hard to win. Everything about Trump is despicable. His surge in popularity is why I am being swayed to Sanders. He is taking a substantial lead, but how likely are these voters? When it comes to an either/or poll between a Republican/Democrat, the polls are more accurate. Americans generally do not take the primaries serious. They whine about a two party oligarchy system, but completely ignore the primaries, which IMO, is much more important. The vast majority of peoples votes are irrelevant in November, but simply refuse to cast their vote where it matters much more, which is the primaries.
It's a far-fetched theory, but skipping the last debate really makes me wonder.... It almost feels like he's slowly starting to unwind his whole campaign.
Not working hard to win does not mean Trump is doing this to showboat only. Who does that??? It takes a lot of effort and time to run for president. I mean, how many babies can one kiss before saying "no mas". Perhaps a bit of humble pie is exactly what he needs to get really, really serious. I am disillusioned by both major parties. Election in, election out nothing really changes as both republican and Democrats answer to their true masters: big interest groups. So I am giving Trump serious consideration.
What do you get as US President? Spoiler <iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/e_DqV1xdf-Y" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
