Don't worry Omar. Most of us stopped believing anything that T_J posts a long long time ago. On all subjects.
Again, unemployment is a *lagging* indicator. You can not use it to predict where the economy is going. Therefore, you can not use a unemployment to say that the economy is not rebounding. Nice try, rookie. This is unsubstantiated conjecture. This is unsupported by any facts, therefore it will be discounted appropriately. Please substantiate these wild generalizations with some facts, please. What objective data are you using which leads you to believe that consumers "blew that money". I'd love to see it. Mortgage rates have risen since their *60-year* lows from early summer, but let's keep this in historical perspective -- they are still at ridiculously low levels. To think that money is not cheap right now, and that spending will be choked off as a result, is very shallow analysis. As cited in this very thread, experts agree that the tax relief has helped spur consumer spending. This was the goal of the tax relief. Objective achieved. Again, you lack a historical perspective on the interest rate market. Rates have been at levels never seen in over 60 years. It is only natural for them to rise. Even with this rise, they are still at ridiculously low levels, when you put this in a historical perspective. To think that spending will grind to a halt as a result is wrong. When you attempt to give economic analysis, try not to use or quote such biased words like "end-of-summer blow-out". It discredits your analysis and EXPOSES your agenda. You've got to come stronger than that, junior. You continue to attempt to predict the future using lagging indicators. Economics 101 has a chair reserved for you. It's time to do some learning. Uh...I think this is the third time that you have attempted to use this flawed argument. It didn't work the first two times, what makes you think it will work the third time? Yawn. You are obviously using trailing P/E's -- a truly meaningless metric. Forward P/E ratios (for the financial amateur, this is the price of a stock divided by projected future earnings for a given year) are much more instructive and would accurately depict the earnings growth picture. Perhaps you need another class this semester --Finance 101. GAME, SET, MATCH, Thanks for playing, youngster.
A slight derailment, but curious on your take. You acknowledge that the market highs of 2000 were 'insanity' -- "Clinton insanity" -- was your term, but we get your drift. Trailing P/E is higher than ever. I recognize that forward P/E's are important, but trailing P/E's are hardly a meaningless metric. They are, afterall, measurable and are based on what the companies did acheive, rather than what they hope to acheive. When trailing P/E's are at record highs it means 'the markets' must be projecting remarkable improvement. The same could have (and was) said in 2000. Sure P/E's are out of wack, we said, but this is different -- new economy, future growth, etc...What's changed (other than your boy being in power). Are we lining up for another slaughter?
Traitor_George sez: Dime store bubble-gum machine sales are at an all time high. It seems everyone has an extra nickel these days. *Objective perceived*.
I do, and I made that post so you could learn from my experience. The bill will arrive in the mail shortly. Net 30.
I don't have time to respond to the entire post, but I just wanted to respond to this first point. Sure, unemployment is a lagging indicator of growth. Nobody's arguing with that. But you have to look past Okun's law and realize that there is an INCREDIBLE amount of endogeneity between unemployment and economic growth. Not only is this intuitively obvious, there are a number of studies that have shown this, using a variety of Hausman-type tests. I think there's one by Ball and one by Larry Summers that are fairly well known (although I'm not positive). While unemployment is an indicator of recession (and yes, it is a lagged indicator of that), it is also a determinant of growth as well. Think about a dynamic Shapiro-Stiglitz model of the labor market, and connect that into your favorite model of the business cycle. It would be nice if you weren't so condescending in dismissing other people's posts. I think Omar was posting on intuition, and in fact his intuition is confirmed by both theory and empirical work in labor economics and real-business-cycle theory. p.s. Nowhere am I saying that employment is a perfect predictor of economics growth. What I'm saying is that it is a valid indicator as a contributor to growth.
If the liberals continue to insist on citing only one indicator -- a lagging indicator -- as evidence that the economy is not improving, then their lies must be EXPOSED. It is more than disingenuous to leave out the multitude of other indicators thare are signalling growth. http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/ Taking a look at the bottom of this link, you will see that 6 of the 7 indicators are signalling that the economy is rebounding. All of these Indicators are positive right now: Consumer Confidence Retail Sales Leading Economic Indicators Manufacturing Activity Industrial Production Consumer Price Index One lagging indicator is signalling weak growth and that is unemployment. The liberals continue to paint the picture of the economy with their negative agenda. Ignoring the positives and highlighting the negatives. Once again, they are EXPOSED.
T_J, I am in agreement with your opinions. Just let these liberals think otherwise. We will continue to have our money smartly invested in the stock market, and will *continue* to reap substantial monetary gain while these liberals cry about the economy and look for ways to belittle our President. Made quite a haul from this week of fantastic stock market gains!
I made a marvelous haul as well. I shall treat myself to the finest luxuries this weekend to reward myself for my financial savvy.
Net 30, dang, I pay my bills of more promptly then that.....guess I will have to hold on to that cash for a while.... DD
LOL! I tell you what - reading this post as well as texxx's above it makes these two, whether you agree with them or not, hilarious. I mean how can you not chuckle when you read something like this?
Our companies stock is up 25% for the week. That Porterhouse steak is looking really good, think I will have it for ...BREAKFAST, LUNCH, & DINNER !! DD
