Agree with this - it's probably the worst-run major conference, and has no ability to see anything long-term. Their recent anti-expansion justification of "look at our TV Contracts per school!" is such backwards, ignorant thinking - it completely ignored the B12 also had the most recent negotiation. Put all the conferences on equal footing and negotiate the TV deals at the same time, and the B12's deal is going to suck relatively speaking, especially when you consider network quality (ABC/ESPN family vs FOX family) and incorporate all the secondary things like conference networks. The general consensus was always that with UT and A&M, Houston was already B12 country. I don't know if that view has changed with A&M moving to the SEC. But between UT, Baylor, Tech, and TCU alums, there are enough fans in Houston that the B12 is going to have a dominant TV presence there regardless, so UH doesn't add any new markets.
UH is arguably the best football program in Texas right now (according to the AP and coaches poll the only team better is TCU), if that holds, and it very well could with Tom Herman sticking around, Houston won't be Big 12 country if UH isn't in the Big 12.
However good UH is, it doesn't change that the UT and Baylor and Tech alums in the area want to see their teams. Being good is not primarily what brings viewers - it's why TCU and Boise State always struggled to get into a better conference despite being far better than UH is.
Programs are always rising and falling in prominence, there was a time that Baylor was a total joke and now they are consistently in the top 25. That same kind of thing could easily happen to UH and if they get good, there are plenty of quality local recruits to help it along. Sure they'll have a presence in Houston via alumni, but that's nowhere near the market share that a good UH program could draw. TCU only went 16 years without being in a major conference and Boise State is out in the middle of nowhere with little to nothing to offer. UH has already gone 20 years in minor conferences...odds are they'll be joining a major conference soon, the only question is, which one? Houston is a hell of a market to lose and make no mistake, if UH goes to a major conference other than the Big 12, Houston will be lost to them. With A&M to the SEC and Houston somewhere else, the relative few Big 12 alumni living in Houston won't really matter. It'll be SEC/wherever conference UH is with territory.
I'd love the PAC12 as well. Seems like quite a few Houston basketball and football recruits go to PAC12 schools, so adding Houston would only help those recruiting efforts. PAC12 schools would now make regular visits to Houston and families would actually be able to see their kids play if they went to a PAC12 school. We might be a bit behind in our academic reputation, but that side of the school is growing and might be there in a few years.
The B12 is not losing the Houston market - sorry, that's just not how TV contracts work. Just as Fort Worth wasn't "TCU Territory" when they were in the Big East and other random conferences - and still isn't today - Houston simply isn't and won't be UH territory. UH is unfortunately positioned badly to join a conference - there's a reason they haven't gotten invited to a major conference for 20 years and was ignored when everyone was trying to grab teams a few years ago, despite being good for a while now with their last few coaches. ACC, Pac12 and Big10 are all well set geographically and value that. The SEC already has A&M and thus is set in the Houston market. The Big12 has endless Texas teams and thus is also set in the Houston market. And outside of the Big12, none of the other conferences have any real desire to expand at this point. MW would be their best option for an established conference, but it's not really better than the AAC at this point.
But they are not consistently the best team in Texas. That will not hold (UH being the best program in the state). I could win the lotto tomorrow but it's not likely to happen. The odds of Herman leaving are higher than the odds of UH continuing to be the best program in the state.
That's a short sighted view IMO. Would anyone have thought 10 years ago that Baylor would consistently be a better football program than UT? Certainly not, but that's what has happened.
I wish UH would find a partner and join the ACC. big12 is dying, instead think big and long term. Imagine UH and Tulane join the ACC. ACC gets into the Texas and Louisiana markets without completely destroying geography especially if they realign North/South as has been discussed recently. UH gets power 5 and amazing football, basketball, and academic relationships. WIN WIN I say!!!
Honestly Baylor's program today is where it is because of Art Briles. It will be interesting to see what will happen to them after his tenure. Odds are they will fall back to being a mediocre program. Houston is the same thing albeit on a much smaller scale, as they've only been good for 1 year. If you noticed, Herman didn't officially decide to commit to his new contract with UH until USC and Georgia had already filled their HC positions. This was not a coincidence. This is the major disadvantage that all middle of the pack football schools run into, especially in places that are close to big time programs. You have to get lucky and get that great coach who wants to build everything from the ground up Paterno style. UH brings almost nothing to the table in terms of expansion to a p5. If you think about it rationally, in the next lets say 5 years they would most likely be at the bottom end of the Big12 conference. You can talk about bringing in the Houston market but honestly how many people are going to tune in to watch UH if they aren't undefeated. And they are not going to be undefeated especially in a p5. In the area, places like Texas, OU, ATM kind of recruit themselves and really only have to worry about each other. Sure you have 1 or 2 up and comers who have a good coach and are winning recently (TCU, Baylor) but long term those schools are not going to be blue blood programs that are really that worrisome. After Patterson and Briles tenures are up, they will almost for sure drop some. Those guys have done that amazing of a job, to go to those schools and be as relevant as they have. Its just not that common.
Not relevant enough in Basketball and poor in academics compared to many of the ACC schools. Not a chance. Pac-12 or Big 12 is more likely.
It's really comparing apples to oranges. Baylor was already in the Big 12 so when they got good it was easier to keep going. It's hard to do that from the AAC to the same extent, especially when your coach is tied to every P5 coaching vacancy, but I'm hoping like hell we get that P5 invite soon.
Uhh no. Baylor is easily the best choice for when you're talking about being a playoff contender year in and year out. We are set up in the short and long-term and the recruiting classes are finally getting to where they need to be. 14th in 2016 which is the highest class we've had in the Briles era by far. Super early but top 5ish in the 2016 class. Baylor is doing very well recruiting-wise in the Houston area. TCU isn't far behind though. Not sure what they got at QB but with Russell, Stidham, Zach Smith, Kellen Mond..I give Baylor the edge.
Are you saying the ACC has no desire to expand into Texas and Louisiana markets? That's really stupid because as it is they're neck and neck with big12 for the worst of the power 5. make the move and cement your place in the power 5 while burying big12 until it eventually dies out.
Not in the least bit worried about UH. They'll get a spot in a P5 conference in the next round of realignment. It's not a question of 'if' anymore, but 'when' and 'who'.
Except that football is the not the only factor in considering realignment. Yes UH football is having the most successful season in quite some but that is a relatively small data point in the grand scheme of all things that are considered.
Yes and no to your question. Yes, they want to keep expanding their markets. No, I don't think UH is the school they want from Texas. They're gunning for the school who matches their standards in both academics and sports (Football and Basketball). Hence, you see why UT always get brought up in realignment rumors. Big 12 is doomed unless they get the likes of BYU, Memphis, etc. UH might force their hand if Pac12 comes knocking.
