Ok, we have played 30 games. I think it's enough to see some pattern here. Whether you are optimistic or pessimistic about the Rockets' season, let's look at the trend with their current record. I'm not analyzing their strengths and weaknesses, or anything like that. People with better Xs - Os knowledge should do that. I am just doing projections. Projections are just this: "We are on pace to win x number of games assuming the current pattern continues." There are several ways to project. I'll do five. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Simple Projection We are currently 16-14, or .533 winning percentage. Projection for the 82-game season: 44 wins ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Road Wins vs. Home Losses Projection There is a school of thought believes that the only meaningful records for judging a team is the road wins and the home losses. We are currently 7-4, or .636 winning percentage. Projection for the 82-game season: 52 wins ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Against the Odds Projection The combined records of our opponents so far (teams we played twice counted twice) are 473-428, or .525 winning percentage, or .475 losing percentage. The Rockets are .533 against the odds of .475, that's a 12.21% above the odds. Assuming the combined records for the whole league at the end of the season is .500, the Rockets is on pace to a .561 winning percentage. Projection for the 82-game season: 46 wins ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Good Teams Bad Teams Projection Let's define "Good Teams" as "teams currently having a .500 record or better" and "Bad Teams" as "teams that are under .500." The Rockets are 7-12 against good teams, or a .368 winning percentage. They have 33 games remaining against good teams. That projects to be 12 wins. We are 9-2 against bad teams, or a .818 winning percentage. We have 19 games remaining against bad teams. That projects to be 16 wins. Projection for the season: 44 wins --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Good Teams, Bad Teams, Home Games Road Games Projection To further analyze the previous pattern, let's factor in the home-road distinction. We are 4-3 (.571) at home against good teams. We have 19 home games remaining against good teams. That projects to be 11 wins. We are 5-1 (.833) at home against bad teams. We have 9 home games remaining against bad teams. That projects to be 7.5 wins (don't want to round it up with an exact half game). We are 3-9 (.250) on the road against good teams. We have 14 road games remaining against good teams. That projects to be 3.5 wins. We are 4-1 (.800) on the road against bad teams. We have 10 road games remaining against bad teams. That projects to be 8 wins. Projection for the season: 46 wins --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Here you have it. All projections, except the second one (which I doubt its validity) point to a 44-46 win season. That should put us at the edge of an 8th seed playoff berth.
They will continue to rise to the level of their utmost incompetence... .500 is about right without a game plan and/or personnel change.
44 - 45 wins won't take us into the playoff this season, book it. The confenrence is even tighter than last season, I won't be surprised by the end of this seaon, there are still 4-5 teams chasing playoff seats. 46 - 47 win will be the least to make the playoff IMO.
I agree. That's why I think 44 to 46 wins is about at the bottom edge of the playoffs field. Six teams Rockets, Jazz, Blazers, Grizzlies, Sonics, and Warriors will be hovering around that edge all season to fight for the last 2 spots. Even the remaining two teams, the Clippers and the Suns, might sneak up to that too.
When the road win vs home loss system is used, one looks not at the ratio but rather the difference, which is +3 over 30 games in our case. So we are a +3 point team at 30 games, and we can expect +8 points at the end of the season, which means a total of 49 wins. I don't know why this paints a rosier picture than the other projections. Puzzling.
44-46 is about what I expect also at this point. I simply dont consider that an improvement over last yr. I expected to see a significant jump, and this team simply is not going to achieve that. Winning in the mid 40s is a failure whether or not they make the playoffs. The team has already tried a coaching change, now its time to deal some of the players.
MManal, I like your trade proposal in the Rasheed thread. Many people thought the Rockets management wouldn't have the gut to deal Francis. I am more in doubt with whether Portland would take both Moochie's and Taylor's contracts just to get Francis. But I agree with you that if the core is to be changed, Francis should be the one to go, not Mobley.
40-45 Wins sounds right. But the most important projection is that the Rockets will be home again in late April. Horrible!
Just want to update the projections from time to time: --------------------------------------------------------------------- Simple Projection: 47 wins ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Road Wins vs. Home Losses Projection: 57 wins ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Against the Odds Projection: 48 wins ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Good Teams Bad Teams Projection: 45 wins --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Good Teams, Bad Teams, Home Games Road Games Projection: 45 wins --------------------------------------------------------------------------- The projections have improved roughly less than 2 games since two weeks ago. That's good news. One thing I noticed. The Rockets are consistent. Yes, I'm not kidding. They consistently beat bad teams (8-0 at home, 6-2 away, 14-2 overall). They consistently struggle aganist good teams (7-9 at home, 3-9 away, 7-14 overall). In other words, they are clearly better than teams under .500. But they are at the bottom echelon among the better teams.
Winning Record The Rockets have had a winning record in every month so far this season. The last time the Rockets finished a season with a winning record in every month was the 1993-94 season, when Houston won its first of back-to-back NBA Championships This was sent to me in an e-mail the other day just thought I'd pass it along.
Starting with a WIN tomorrow against the wolves, I went through the Rockets' schedule and assigned a W and L to each of the remaining games (guessing at best). That totaled up to 46 wins. IMO, the rockets will make the playoffs and do well in the first round before bowing out.
even taking into account our amazing start, how did we not have a winning record in every month in 96-97 when we won 57? did we get nailed with injuries for one month or something? oh yeah, and what is our point differential? last year, the correlation b/t wins and point differential was: 41 + 2.7*PD or in terms of winning percentage it was: .500 + .033*PD last year we actually underperformed based on our differential and the suns performed exactly as they should have and that was the difference in making the playoffs.
If we get Rasheed, Rockets will win 50 games, possibly winning it all this year. If we don't 45 games, 6th seed and lose in the first round.
