At the beginning of Yao's rookie year, the debate was over whether he would be a success or a bust. Some people were proclaiming him a bust after his first few games. After awhile, though, it was clear that he would at least be a good player. The new debate is over Yao's potential. How good will he ultimately be? I recently heard ESPN analysts Anthony and Legler say that Yao would never be a dominant player. And during last night's telecast, when Walton was asked about Yao's upside, he said that Yao would average between 18 and 20 points a game. I was surprised, considering that he's a Yao fan and that Yao is averaging 16.5 points a game right now. Most so-called experts, from what I've seen, have stated that Yao will be a good to very good player, but not dominant. They figure that since Yao lacks the athleticism of Wilt, the power of Shaq, and the quickness of Hakeem, he will never be an all-time great. They may be proven right, but it seems a little early to be reaching that conclusion. I admit I'm biased, but I think people are underestimating Yao's potential. First of all, Yao is going to get a lot stronger -- with much better stamina -- just through strength and conditioning programs; his before and after pictures will be like those of Jordan's as a skinny rookie and in his prime. Second, he's going to get a lot better at establishing position deep in the post, and he's already shown that he has a variety of good moves, which he will refine and perfect. Third, the Rox will find a player who excels at feeding Yao in the post. Fourth, Yao is already a very good FT shooter, and could get better. (How many great big men are/were even good FT shooters?) Those are just a few reasons why Yao should be great someday. The fact is, he's a hard worker and he's going to improve in every facet of his game. Defensively, he's already pretty good, It's no coincidence the Rox are a great defensive team; Yao alters a lot of shots. And he'll be even better defensively when he learns not to go for pump fakes. I don't buy the notion that Yao's personality is going to prevent him from being a great player. He showed last night that he has the disposition to dominate, and he did so against Shaq. He'll defer to his teammates less and they'll defer to him more as his game develops and his confidence grows. I think Yao will be a dominant player in time. I think he'll average about 25 points and 12 rebounds per game in the 2005-2006 season, and about 30 and 13 the season after that. If the Rox get a true point guard and move Francis to shooting guard, and if Francis finally matures and plays smart (like he did last night), they will win at least 3 championships under JVG, with Yao leading the way.
Yao IMO should taylor his game more after KAREEM Kareem was athletic and fast but in his later years he was not overtly so but he definately got his shot off I think Yao's Face up game is good but not like robinson. . . I cannot see Yao blowing by anyone Rocket River
Wow, I didn't know Kate was a Yao fan. I don't think Yao will ever average 30 a game, I would say mid 20's will be his tops. I think with the lack of quality centers in the league he will be considerred "dominant" in the next couple of years.
Yao won't be dominant consistently during the regular season, but Rox might hope he can dominate in the playoff. The Lakers showed that Yao can dominate with one defender defending him, but teams are not going to do that. So the question is if he can still shoot 20 times when there are 2 defenders around him. The answer is NO. As you can see, Shaq can't do that either.
Im not sure whether yao will eventually be a dominant player in the league. but what im convinced is he will be the most effective player in the league.his height,his unselfish,his improved skill and confidence,if hes really involved in a team,i cant imagine what will happan.
I doubt that Yao will ever average more than 22 ppg. I think that Walton is about right in his accessment that Yao will average 18-22 ppg on about 15 shots per game in his prime. Tim Duncan, one of the great players of our era, only averages around 23 ppg and he's on a team that's built around him. And I doubt that Yao will exceed Duncan's level. Let's not get carried away by one game. Nowadays people talk too much about potentail while in fact the P word doesn't mean anything unless you actually go out and do it.
Very nice post... but Underworld? Come on. When "experts" say a player will take X years to develop, they are often about right but lose sight of it within the context of a season. Experts said Yao would take 3-5 years to adjust to the league and become a player. OK. Now it's popular to take his numbers and assign a ceiling. Fine. Let them. They are used to being wrong and most have a hard time seeing past next week, honestly. 30/13 seems a little exuberant to me, but hey, why not? Every member on this site should hope that Yao will be one of the top 5 impact players in the league within the next few years. Barring injury, I've felt strongly since watching him last year that Yao will have a 5-8 year run as the MDP (Most Dominant Player) in the game.
Yao average more than 22 points will have to depend on the team rather than him because if the team is not willing to give him the ball and trust him....then he's not going to score much just as he had in numerous occassion in the 1st half of this season. It's all about his teammates who is willing to share and giving him more shots. Tell me how many time Yao lead the team in shot selection in a game this season???? Probably 5 to or worst even less. But in the most recent games Yao is learning to demand the ball now ...and so that should help increase his teammates' confidence. Average around 22/10 ain't bad at all. I think that's where Yao career number will be around 22-25 and 10 to 15 boards.
Let me paste the article for those who are too lazy to click. I found it a very good, and objective reading. The treat is all yours. Yao shows O'Neal he's getting closer By Tom Knott The development of Yao Ming is the unanticipated wrinkle that undermined Shaquille O'Neal in their last meeting. One game in Yao's favor does not constitute a passing of the torch between the two giants. Yet it does represent a closing of the gap, if not an encroachment on O'Neal's domain. O'Neal was not in a position to thwart Yao in the waning minutes after fouling out with 3:20 left Thursday night. Yao scored 11 of his team's last 15 points, providing the finishing touches to the Rockets' 102-87 victory. Yao finished with 29 points and 11 rebounds to O'Neal's 24 points and nine rebounds, as if the bare facts reveal the hurt to O'Neal's ego. Yao carried his team when it mattered, and there was nothing O'Neal could do. "I was very surprised how I was able to do," Yao said, expressing a humility foreign to most Americans, O'Neal in particular. Said O'Neal, resorting to the commonly heard four-against-one defense: "He made the shots, but he got the whistle, too." The plea is especially anemic in someone so large and dominant. The uniqueness of Yao extends beyond his 7-foot-5 self. The NBA has had several players who could stretch that far, although none with Yao's skill level. Yao has the soft shooting touch of Rik Smits, with range up to 20 feet, and a willingness to perform the grunt work. Unlike Smits, Yao has a certain firmness to his bearing. He is not dislodged by an elbow to the back. Yao is hardly the quickest or fleetest player, but his sense of timing is ever evolving. His is an economy of motions, to an understated degree. He does not stuff the ball through the cylinder to put on a show. He does it out of efficiency. His next display of showmanship will be his first. The American proclivity to beat the chest apparently has not been exported to China yet. Yao plays close to the floor and with a subtlety that baffles opponents. He rarely leaves anyone clutching at air. Instead, he is liable to fake one way, step another and fade from the defender as he releases his jumper. That is one of his favorite maneuvers, too difficult to contest. Yao also sees the floor uncommonly well and resists a young player's urge to force a shot or a pass. As a second-year player, just 23, Yao shows remarkable patience. He appears indifferent to his numbers and to the notion that the NBA could be his to claim one day. Jeff Van Gundy, the first-year coach of the Rockets who is accustomed to a New Yorker's style of tenacity, sometimes finds himself in a culturally induced vacuum. He knows not what lurks inside Yao. Where is the rage to be the best? Where is the strut? Even so, Van Gundy has been wise enough to emphasize the importance of Yao to those inclined to shoot first and think later. This emphasis includes Steve Francis, the team's original franchise player now adjusting to Yao's increasing presence. Yao has been voted to start ahead of O'Neal in Sunday's All-Star Game, for whatever that is worth, considering the ballot-stuffing potential of 1.4 billion Chinese. Unlike last year, however, Yao is exhibiting an unexpected worthiness. He certainly has O'Neal's attention, if he did not have it already. "He's a big guy and has a soft touch," O'Neal said, merely warming up. "I don't think he'll ever be able to play me one-on-one, ever, ever, ever." That, no doubt, depends on how the rest of us define "ever, ever, ever." O'Neal, increasingly hampered by this or that nagging injury, turns 32 next month. He is hardly near the end of his career, but he is passing the peak of his physical powers. Yao, eight years younger, is an undetermined quality in part, with no obvious deficiencies that might hold him in check. Look ahead three years, when Yao is 26 and O'Neal is coming up on 35, and the exchange between the two might have been completed. O'Neal is not apt to relinquish his status easily, which Yao should take as a warning the next time the two meet. The treat is all ours.
Stats are a function of the style of game being played. If the NBA continues to use the zone defense, and continues to let all the bumping, grinding, pushing, and pulling go on in the paint then there will be very few high scoring games in the NBA and the teams will probably average 70 to 80 points a game. It is gonna be very difficult for any player to average 30 a game under those circumstances. After all the leading scorers in the league this year are averaging a shade over 27 PPG and are taking 22-24 shots a game to get that 27 points. Yao will be a very, very efficient player. He may only average 20 but it will be a very efficient 20 and his teammates will go nuts because he is feeding them with wide open shots. Or he may wind up taking 20 shots a game. What do you think Yao could average with 20 shots a game?????????????????? And then what if the NBA tightens up on the defense and starts actually calling the fouls? Yao could very easily see 30 PPG under those circumstances. The PPG aren't important. It's the impact on the game. It's the percentage of his team's offense that he scores. No, he's not as strong as Shaq, he's not as quick as Hakeem, he's not as smooth as Kareem at this point. But he is strong, he is fairly quick, and he is getting smoother. And he is unselfish, a great passer, instinctive defender, and on top of all that he is about 5 to 7 inches taller than Shaq, and Kareem, and Hakeem, and Wilt. Just as all those big men dominated their day, Yao will dominate his. Who is gonna stop him? Pavel? By the time the next dominating big man is discovered and developed, Yao will have already had his years of domination.
