from today's Wall Street Journal: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116251260904411996.html November 3, 2006 BY THE NUMBERS By ALLEN ST. JOHN An NBA MBA November 3, 2006; Page W5 The NBA season just tipped off, and finally one of the league's most intriguing stories doesn't involve Shaquille O'Neal or LeBron James. This year's guy to watch may be an MBA from MIT's Sloan School of Management. While a few NBA teams have hired statistical analysts in advisory capacities, the Houston Rockets are upping the ante by bringing one into the executive suite. In hiring Daryl Morey away from the Boston Celtics to be their general-manager-in-waiting -- he'll work alongside retiring GM Carroll Dawson this season before taking the helm next year -- the Rockets are betting that the quantitative analysis Mr. Morey espouses is the wave of the future in the NBA. So far, the NBA has been slow to embrace the sort of stat geeks that have helped transform pro baseball (such as "Moneyball" poster-boy Billy Beane, the GM of the Oakland A's). But unlike Mr. Beane, who has turned a strapped organization into a contender, Mr. Morey joins a team that already features two of the game's elite players, Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming, as well as a coach with a winning pedigree in Jeff Van Gundy. While quantitative analysis faced stiff opposition from baseball traditionalists, Mr. Morey has experienced a smooth transition in the NBA. His approach includes examining how an entire team's scoring rises or falls when a given player is added into the mix. Rockets owner Leslie Alexander "established a culture early on that new approaches and new ways would be embraced," he says. "I was able to walk in and integrate pretty rapidly." Plus, baseball and basketball lend themselves to statistical analysis in different ways. Mr. Morey says baseball's linear nature makes it easier to "isolate a player's contribution." But in basketball, there are a lot of what he terms "interaction effects." Mr. Morey gives this example: "Is the guy open because the point guard set him up, or because a pick was set or because he created it?" Interpreting interaction effects to make effective player evaluations will be an important test of Mr. Morey's methods. He argues that conventional stats, such as points per game and rebounds per game, are overrated. "You've got to develop a picture of a player," he says. Morey's Multiplication For example, Mr. Morey likes an off-season trade in which the Rockets sent Stromile Swift and the draft rights to University of Connecticut forward Rudy Gay to Memphis in exchange for Shane Battier. "There are multiple things we were looking at," he says. "He's creating a lot of points without a lot of trips down the floor." Mr. Battier's 10.1 points per game ranked him 36th among NBA small forwards, but his .488 shooting percentage ranked him ninth at his position. Similarly, his 5.3 rebounds per game ranked Mr. Battier 16th among small forwards, but his team averaged 2.9 more rebounds per 48 minutes when he was in the game, the ninth-best differential in the league. BETTING ON BATTIER While Shane Battier, an off-season Houston acquisition, has rather average conventional stats, Daryl Morey's advanced metrics show the former Duke star in a better light. SHANE BATTIER RANK AMONG NBA SMALL FORWARDS Points per game: 10.1 (36) Team point differential: +6 per 48 min. (6) Shooting percentage: .488 (9) Shooting percentage differential vs. opponent: +.076 per 48 min. (3) Rebounds per game: 5.3 (16) Team rebound differential: +2.9 per 48 min. (9) Blocked shots per game: 1.4 (5) 2006-07 Salary: $5.4 million (27) Finally, Mr. Battier makes a "dramatic" defensive contribution -- up to 10 points per game, according to Mr. Morey -- and makes a subtle but quantifiable impact on offense. "He helps other players get shots because he moves the ball quickly and he's always in the right spots." Mr. Morey notes that Mr. Battier's shooting was .076 better than the player he was matched up against, third-best in the league among small forwards. With him on the court, his team outscored the opposition by six points per 48 minutes, the sixth-best differential in the league. And his 2006-07 salary of $5.4 million, 27th among NBA small forwards, makes Mr. Battier seem like a bargain. "He's the quintessential third guy to match with two superstars," says Mr. Morey. While the future of this kind of decision-making hinges on whether Mr. Morey can make a team with two superstars a championship contender, he thinks quantitative analysis is in the NBA to stay. "It's not whether you played basketball," he says. "Decision-making is the key skill." Write to Allen St. John at allen.stjohn@wsj.com1 URL for this article: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116251260904411996.html Hyperlinks in this Article: (1) mailto:allen.stjohn@wsj.com Copyright 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Inset that did not copy originally: BETTING ON BATTIER While Shane Battier, an off-season Houston acquisition, has rather average conventional stats, Daryl Morey's advanced metrics show the former Duke star in a better light. SHANE BATTIER RANK AMONG NBA SMALL FORWARDS Points per game: 10.1 (36) Team point differential: +6 per 48 min. (6) Shooting percentage: .488 (9) Shooting percentage differential vs. opponent: +.076 per 48 min. (3) Rebounds per game: 5.3 (16) Team rebound differential: +2.9 per 48 min. (9) Blocked shots per game: 1.4 (5) 2006-07 Salary: $5.4 million (27)
I'd rather believe in horoscope than this mathematical crap. I don't think team chemistry can be represented by numbers.
Define chemistry ... and how precisely it leads to winning. Then we can talk about whether or not it can be measured.
Very good question durvasa . If folks just think a bit about it they may be surprised. I'd like for folks besides us stats guys to answer that question but I'm chomping at the bit and thought I would put one of the better definitions of chemistry out there for folks to chew on. The definition comes from none other than Dean Oliver . It came from a review of Dean Oliver's "Basketball on Paper" book. http://www.sfandllaw.com/article9.htm
How can a player be quantified BEFORE the draft or after just a year or two where he has had little court time?
It's a great deal to make millions a year by tossing around several statistical figures off 82games.com.
I don't think there is very much data from the last few years with Shane at PF. With Gasol in the PF position, the only stats for Shane starting at PF would be in cases of injury.
I dont think thats the case there are alot of ways of looking at data, and some ways may yield a much clearer and definitive result and considering Morey is one of the best in the business, i would assume that he would "invent" categories, and ways of looking at things that other teams have failed to see...i think thats his greatest value
It's obvious that you have no idea HOW to toss around statistical figures. That's why you aren't making millions a year doing it.
i don't need to see any stats to know shane will be a better fit for yao and t-mac, but at what cost? can this be quantified?
did you think the rockets would trade for battier? did you call the rockets office to tell them that battier would be a good fit? what do you mean what can be quantified?
I'm not sure how well this will work in the NBA, but it is damn sure fascinating. Fans are just generally going to have no more than a passing understanding of the complexities of the game. And, why shouldn't they? Unless you spend hours a day breaking down tapes of games, analyzing players and teams, studying the history of both the game and the plays/players/coaches that have had the most success, you won't even get close. Even with all that understanding, you still probably only have enough knowledge to coach high school assuming you are also a good motivator and know how to draw up game plans and assess player skills. It never ceases to amaze me at how much people can profess to know when, in reality, they know very VERY little. It would be like if you were professional photographer and a guy with a camera phone came along and tried to tell you how to take better pictures. This is really no different.
What's with the writer's Mr. Mr. references? Is that typical WSJ style? Just curious, because you never see that with mainstream sportwriting, and it sounds kind of funny in the context of a sports story.
The stat I see is our starting PF (Battier) grabbing 1 rebound the other night while our opposition's starting PF (Boozer) grabbing 19 rebounds. I do like Battier on this team, but I'm very worried about his ability to rebound at the 4.
