In my opinion, The Lakers dynasty is going to be over. Their championship window will be officially closed this year. The Kings just won't ever win a championship. The window for winning a championship is a short one and their is closing fast. The best chance for the Kings was last year and they didn't take it. SA Spurs may just be the next dynasty. Their championship window will start this year and run for 3-4 years. Dallas will be the closest challengers. Their opportunity will start next year and run for 2-3 years. All the other teams will only be also-rans, mainly because of the bad cap situation/flexibility. That's my outlook of the West Conf for the next few years. As for the East Conf, well who cares? They are/will be non-factors in the NBA Finals anyway.
My take: Lakers - I don't think that the window is closed yet. Shaq and Kobe are still good. They just need to get better role players. Adding Pippen would be a good start. Kings - I agree that their window is closing. I think that the Kings could have won it all this year had Webber not gone down. Spurs - I'm not going to call them the next dynasty until I know who they are going to pick up this off-season.
Until Horry's last three doesn't drain the Lakes ain't quite dead yet. Worse, they'll be better next season. They will reload with both exceptions and a veteran's minimum. Shaq + Kobe = tough to bet against. Sac done? Maybe for this year, but they have the pieces to reload for next season. I like their short term future, and I won't bet against them until Nash/Dirk?Nick's last shots fall through. SA? They will be reloading, and that is scary. Dallas? Cubes has the cubes to keep fiddling til the NBA burns. Portland? With Paul Allen getting serious they could be noisome and worrisome to the rest of the Association.
I can't count the Lakers out as much as I want to. Even if they fail this year, I think it's very feasible for them to pull a Utah and pick up that critical third player as super mario and xiki have pointed out. Spurs are a Jason Kidd away from becoming the next dynasty hands down. Steve and Yao will not seriously challenge them for a few years. xiki, it sounds from your post like you're really psyched about the Matrix sequel.
1st time I saw Matrix the film broke and the theatre gave passes for another night. Now, another Matrix -- X 2 ...
please no.. I've been watching every series the Lakers play in waiting for a team to step up to the plate and knock these guys out of the playoffs. If Shaq and Kobe weren't so darned good I'd almost hate watching their O as much as I do ours. That said I'm not betting against them and they will probably prove Barkley right and make him work Saturday while they win game 7. I'm really hoping the Spurs hand on long enough to win just one more game. After that I don't care if they get swept in the next round.
From my biased perspective, I think the Lakers aren't getting any better. Kobe will still be great. Their rookies might get better. They might add some veterans. But I'm banking on Shaq's fast decline next year. Physical players' effectiveness decline very fast once they hit a certain point where their bodies can no longer withstand the pounding. Once that happens to Shaq, the Lakers will only be good for being a bubble team in the playoffs chase. The Kings are a step ahead of the Mavs. But the Kings have peaked. Divac will be a year older. He is a very important piece for the Kings' success. Meanwhile the Mavs can still get better. They can improve by getting some inside muscle. And the big three are still in their prime. Dirk still have room to improve. The Spurs appears to have the brightest future. If they do get a superstar level player whether up front or at the point, they will be the team to beat for the next few years.
Unless the Spurs win it all and then sign Kidd in the offseason the Lakers will be the favorites next year. It isn't like the Lakers need a major overall, a MCE signing (Howard, DC, heaven forbid PJ Brown or Karl Malone, Campbell) or trade (for a Mo Taylor quality guy ) at the 4, + sign a quality league vet min (like 2-3 mil year) back-up guard (Jon Barry, Best, KA, Armstrong, AD, Leonard) and they have retooled enough to beat anyone--including perhaps a Kidd/Duncan tandem. I agree the Kings hopes are fading fast. Without Webber being a monster inside--they just are not going to be good enough--and Webber seems more and more injury prone. These last 2 years may have been that teams best chance. Hey any talk of Duncan signing somewhere else. That would sink the Spurs fast, though I would hate even more to see him in Utah.
Lakers ARE worse than Spurs now and WILL BE for the next few years too. Anything they pick up in this offseason with their MLE/veteran minimum, Spurs can get someone BETTER with their huge cap room. Don't forget that Lakers' most important player (Shaq) is already 32 years old and won't get any better and healthier while Spurs' Duncan is only what? 27 years old and is entering his prime. Kings are done in my opinion. I will be very surprised if they can come back vs the Mavs and it's near impossible to get past Spurs in WCF as well. Webber and Divac again won't get any younger and healthier. Older = more injury prone. Contrary to what you said, I don't think they have many pieces to retool. Who would trade them an All-Star for a max-out and old Webber? Who would trade them an All-Star for a max-out Bibby? What can they get for other players? Again, anything they do with the MLE/veteran minimum, Spurs can do BETTER. Dallas only need to add an inside presence to get them some easy baskets in the paint (Van Exel for Big Z?) and fire Don Nelson to hire a coach who can teach them to execute half-court offense and defense, they are right there. Paul Allen is going to hire a new GM to BLOW UP the team. This current team won't get any better and their contract situation is bad, REAL BAD. They need to seriously BLOW UP. Don't be surprised that they are in the lottory next season.
I would not be so sure of this. The Spurs were better than the Lakers this year largely because 1) the Spurs remained relatively healthy and the Lakers did not, 2) the Spurs maybe being a little hungrier and the Lakers fat on 3 years of success, 3) the Lakers role players (somewhat a a product of Fox's injury but also because Horry just seems finished) finally were insufficient. But all of those things can change easily from year to year. Shaq has an offseason to get healthy and return to form. Kobe is younger than Duncan and will only get better. The Lakers weak spots can likely be filled with the MCE or mild trade for a 4 (PJ or Karl would make them scary, a guy like Howard or MoT might be enough), and or vet min/2 mil exeption for a vet back-up guard (Jon Barry, Best, KA, etc.). These holes are easily filled with mild retolling. The only way the Spurs will be able to match a team like that is if they bring in a Kidd or maybe Payton. Just because the Spurs have max money doesn't mean they will get a player worth the max--as we were not able to do when Webber was a FA.
As I have said in other posts, it's all about Shaq. If Shaq gets healthy, then nobody can stop him. By the way does anyone know how much Shaq weighs now? The guy is enormous.
Not sure about the Lakers. It depends on Shaq, where he is in the decline curve and how steep that slope is. How much he's willing in the off season to try to get in shape, lose a little weight he's accumulated over the years.If Shaq can come back better and they can add a couple of decent players with MLEs they'll be back contending. Kings agree their window may be closing. Valde is declining, Webber will be entering the decline possibly from injuries. Christie isn't that young and it looks like maybe they overpaid for Bibby. Mavs are fundamentally flawed. They have no solid interior with LaFrentz and Bradley and they money tied up in those guys and Eschemeyer so they have little room to improve their interior defense and rebounding. Spurs are solid and can only get better. Even without a big time FA Parker will improve and their young core of Ginobili, Jackson, Parker, and Claxton if he stays will improve and learn to play together better. Who they spend the extra cash on will determine their dynasty potential. Teams on the rise: Phoenix with an incredible athletic and talented core of Marbury, Marion, and Stoudamire. Joe Johnson also looks like a very good SG though he choked a bit in the playoffs. Jacobsen will likely prove to be a nice player too. Detroit with their core, Tayshaun Prince who is proving to be the steal of the draft and a high draft pick this year from Memphis that could be as good as number 2. Down the road possibly Denver with Hilario a ton of cap room and a top draft ick this year. As an outsider I'm not to keen on the Rockets makeup.
Injuries are NOT a legit excuse. Injuries are a BIG part of why aging dynasties crumble. More championships = complacency = less desire to work + older = more injury prone. Spurs > Lakers now. Spurs + a max guy or 2 mid salary guys > Lakers + a MLE guy. It doesn't take a rocket sciencist to work this out.
1) Shaq & Kobe > Duncan and any other Spur next year unless if perhaps they sign JK. Futher, Kobe is the best player either team has or will have that is under 25 and with substantial room to still get better as a franchise type player. 1a) It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out it was the role players that were the difference. 2) Injuries don't matter? Are you saying TD injury in 00 and DA's in 01 didn't matter? Well, guess what TD and the Spurs were worse in 00 because of injury and now they and him are back--no reason Shaq can't return to form. It is true injuries should not be no used as an "excuse"--but to not consider how the loss of Fox and the slowing of Shaq hurt them this year and how those things can change year to year, just as a healthy TD or DA would have done in the past for the Spurs just doesn't make any sense at all. Injuries are probably 1/3rd luck, 1/3rd age and 1/3rd conditioning--two of which could be very different for the Lakers. 3) If the Spurs do go on to win the championship it is them more likely than the Lakers who will be complacent. Maybe the best things for the rest of the WC teams is that the Spurs win the title thus the front office becomes complacent and decides they don't need to upgrade their backcourt and wing players (1,2,3) plus the rest of the squad gets a little complacent. Newgirl, sorry, I think except your fautly logic assumming injuries are static year to year most of your arguments--team with greatist young star, team with most stars, players/front office likely to be complacent all work for the Lakers. I repeat--unless the Spurs sign Kidd the Lakers will be odds on favs going into next year, though I agree the Spurs will be a close 2nd more than likely with the potential #1 slot with Kidd or similar caliber star at the 1-2 or 3 added.
I don't think Scar likes the Spurs too much. At the end of last year he was saying they'd be lucky to get out of the first round this year.
I don't think there's going to be any legit dynasties for a while. People who think the Spurs are going to win it all this year and for years to come... don't be foolish IMHO the championship is up for grabs. Surely SA has the best team and home-court throughout but I still think each team has equal oppurtunity and chance to win it all. As for the Lakers they will never be a dynasty again, atleast not for a very long time. Even if they do add Pippen or Karl Malone. Shaq is getting older and more out of shape by the day. The older and bigger you are the harder it is to get back into shape. I can't see Shaq playing more than 2 years same goes for Malone and Pippen.
I think you are making this up Freak. If it was anyone making ludicres predictions (unless I was obiously making it in jest) it was you saying the Spurs should be going for their 5th strait title right now or something like that. I have given the Spurs the road map to future titles--and goes to NJ--I would never do this for a team I really despise like the Jazz or Blazers. Thus I don't hate the Spurs team or Spurs players, but Speridiots on a Rocket board to get annoying and sometimes they are worth teasing because other than Rocket fans who have every right to as it is a Rocket board seem to be so one sided, three-quarters blind, unanalytical cheerleaders. To think these are probably some of the brighest of the bunch as they must not get enough stimulation on Spers-R-Us.com or what not.
