Hmm, had no idea this was going on here... here's something I posted elsewhere, I'll redigest here. (By the way, I'm speaking as a mainland, Chinese nationalist, YOF as well.) First of all, I think Taiwan deserves congratulations for pulling off a difficult vote peacefully. I still think the system sucks (as a whole in theoretical terms), but I think it's an admirable sign of Taiwan's social/civic/democratic awareness that 13 million people voted yesterday in peaceful circumstance. That even with the difficult outcome, reports of violence/confrontation are far and few between. So again, great job. Second, I doubt Lien/Soong will be able to reverse the results of yesterday. They have great reason to be upset about the outcome, but I don't think there's any recourse. They should fight the good fight, but also be resigned to the fact that 6.5 million Taiwanese wanted Chen Shui-bian to be President. Third, it's time the Blues picked up the pieces and tried to figure out their strategy for the next four years. The Chen administration will, undoubtedly, be much better at their jobs this time around... and the Blues will have an even more difficult task if they want to compete in 2008. Generally speaking though, I don't really care much about domestic Taiwanese policy at all... and I'm sure the Greens will have an even firmer grasp on cross-strait affairs. Fourth, all the theoretical meanderings are over with... we have a real world situation that everyone will need to come to grips with, including Beijing. Beijing needs to maintain its balanced, rational policy of the past six months: pay attention to developments on Taiwan, but stop trying to force Taiwan's path. As for me, I would encourage Beijing to continue to make the "One China" principle a priority on all cross-strait relations. Frankly, there's nothing Taiwan has to offer to Beijing in exchange. I advocated closer relations across the straits, assuming a Blue administration, because I believed that it'd be a mutually beneficial relationship. I don't think that's really possible with a Green administration. Any thaw in the relationship offered by CSB/DPP will be a mirage, another chess-move towards their ultimate goals of Taiwanese independence. And I honestly doubt there's much the Greens can do to *damage* mainland China. Hold off economic/social/civic exchanges? Already close to the wall here. The only thing that the Greens can do is declare independence... and in a major shift (aren't I self-important), I strongly hope that mainland China does not react with any type of military activity. Why bother? What does a Taiwan that simply "declares" independence achieve? In the current world system, China can (and should) continue to throw its weight around. Any nation that establishes diplomatic relations with Taiwan will lose diplomatifc relations with China. Bottom line. The only way to lose this battle of wills is to blunder into a Green trap, which may end with a China defeated and set-back another 30-40 years. Finally, a new thought on Taiwan coalesced as I watched the election, watching millions of Taiwanese celebrate their political process and identity proudly. Who are the Chinese to tell these 23 million people that they're only a province, that they're only part of a country... when they (collectively) generate far more wealth than all but a handful of countries? Certainly, wealthier than mainland China, more culturally influential than all of mainland China, more technologically advanced than all of mainland China, and as this week demonstrates...more socially/legally/civically/politically experienced than mainland China? Taiwan generates as much attention, internationally, as South Korea, Japan... and *far* more than any other single Chinese "province". Taiwan claims Nobel Prize winners, is a regional cultural power-house, creates products used throughout the world, and generates huge amounts of wealth. What other Chinese "province" comes close? What other Chinese province can claim the same "mass", can claim to generate the same force of gravity, in the international system? For 400 years, Taiwan was a province because it truly was on the periphery of China. It was a hideaway for farmers and pirates, a sleepy, poor land. A region that no one, in China even, paid much attention to (which explains why it was part of Fujian for so long). Taiwan will become a province again when China "makes" it a province. I don't mean by force, but by sheer might. Taiwan will become a province again when international investors know more about Sichuan, Zhejiang, and Hunan than they do about Taiwan. Taiwan will become a province again when Guangdong could single-handedly crush it in terms of military strength. Taiwan will become a province again when those in Fujian look down, again, at the Taiwanese as their poorer brothers. So, I ask the Chinese patriots out there... shouldn't this be our worthy goal? Let's not call for the destruction of an independent Taiwan. Let's not waste our time worrying about what we do not have; we have no one but to blame ourselves Let's, instead, continue our work on building a China that resigns Taiwan to "insignificance", the way that Gansu, Shanxi, or Shandong is insignificant, the way that any sub-atomic part of the Chinese nation is insignificant when compared to China as a whole. We all know this to be the future. And if, by the time we achieve this goal Taiwan has already established too different of a national identity for reunification to succeed... well, let's leave it to the descendents of Chen Shui-bian to bemoan the fact they've been cut off from the Chinese nation. Let them look upon our wealth, security, confidence, and power with envy. Let them smuggle themselves into our ports to work as "foreigner" laborers, related to us... but insignificant and deprived of the *honor* of being Chinese. We don't lose as much from losing Taiwan, as Taiwan loses from losing China.
heech; A very thoughtful and interesting post. You're totally right that peaceful reunification only has a chance to succeed once the standard of living and prestige of mainland China so far heavily outweighs Taiwan that Taiwan will want to reunify but in the meantime Taiwanese independence won't really hurt China. I would look at things slightly differently. Military reunification is bound to be disastrous for both sides and my main argument has been against the idea that the PRC should uses force and intimidation to reunify Taiwan and on the other side its a pipe dream of that the KMT will be able to take over the mainland. Once the PRC democratizes, the economies become more independent and the standard of living improves I think you will see a very strong reunification movement spring up in Taiwan. It is only then that the Taiwanese will agree to reunify under terms they can accept and the PRC will welcome them not as a rebel province but as brothers. Only then can both sides respect and accept each which is what true reunification should be about. Until then why not accept what is a fact in all but diplomatic niceties. Taiwan is separate country.
whoa... that was deep man. that was seriously very well composed. i think there's a lot of Taiwanese in Taiwan that share your sentiments, that deep down inside they are proud to be chinese. then there are sellouts like Lil. i've said all along... China doesn't need Taiwan. I stand by my Taiwan = Jason Collier analogy.
The problem with this is that not all Taiwanese want independence. What will happen to the other half that wants to be part of China. It's not fair for the half that wanted reunification to suffer because of the other half. Chen Shui Bian would not have won if he was not such a political machine. He was made to be a politician. Shrewd and calculated. Born in a village himself, he is someone the poor southerners can identify with. You forget that most of Chen Shui Bian's vote comes from the rural areas, where the people are poor and have nothing to lose. He won because he is better at getting votes and influencing the impressionable southerners. You guys will be surprised to know that most of my dozens of friends except two who are from Taiwan and their relatives in Taiwan want Taiwan and China to be reunited. Oh yea and I know plenty of Taiwanese like Lil too. Very vocal and close-minded. Thankfully neither of my two friends who don't desire reunification are like that. I tend to only find his type on the Internet.
Let's not delude ourselves. There are many very passionate, articulate, intelligent "Taiwanese" who desire independence for a whole raft of reasons. Some of them are my friends (at least when it's not election season). They aren't all fools, they're not all "sell-outs". They're just people that I (and others here) fundamentally disagree with. If we're really going to take this to the NBA world... our team has bought the rights to every #1 draft pick for the next 50 seasons. (And in this league, players don't get old: we'll have fifty #1 picks in 2054.) But right now, we're still not very good. Taiwan independence folks are supporters of a different team (from the same city). These guys have made the playoffs 20 years in a row. They look down on our team. They think we'll draft poorly. They think we won't develop our players. They think our coaching's horrible. They laugh at our requests that they cheer for our team, instead... They're the Lakers, we're the Clippers. Here's what I believe: 50 years from now, this league is ours. We're going to have the greatest collection of talent in the history of basketball, and we're going to build a franchise beyond comparison. It doesn't matter if CSB wins today, tomorrow, or for the next 15 years... in the long run, we *will* win.
heech, Great post. I echo the main sentiment in your post. However I do not believe mainland should ignore what's developing in the island, and hope they will turn around someday after China fully develop in economic, military and democratic might. It's important for China to remind the world Taiwan isn't a full-fledge sovereign country, no matter how they want to call themselves. China should not give ground in terms of international law regarding the destiny of the island. I think China is right to reserve the right to use force if necessary, although I doubt there will ever be a war over Taiwan. It's the punishment payoff in game theory----in equilibrium, it will never be used, just keep the player to play the game. The problem of cross-streit is that there is currently no pole, so the system is not stable. Nationalist has given up their dreams of reclaiming the mainland, and the mainland are not strong enough to absorb TW. But, believe it or not, the economic magnet is working, even right now. Many businessmen see the virture of reunification. It's up to China to make the majority of ordernery taiwanese see the virture also. China can simply not afford to give up taiwan, strategically. It needs to develop itself into a dominating pole again, and win some hearts and minds in the meantime. But we should not dismiss the current TI forces as neglegible, thinking time will take care all of time. China just need to keep everyone honest, play the game, then time will be on China's side.
damn! heech! that was just an awesome post. i agreed with just about everything you had to say in it. did you just start thinking this after the election, or were you always so open-minded? no sarcasm or offense intended, that was just a great great post.
Heech, the presumption of China can become strong and properous without taking back Taiwan is not true. Taiwan's money is not important to China. What is important is that Taiwan is being used by the U.S. and Japan to contain China. It is a time bomb that threatening the most properous part of China. Taiwan is and will be willing to fight a war with China for their TI dreams when the opportunity comes. That opportunity will come when the U.S. needs to weaken China. A seperate Taiwan hindered China's ability to control South China sea and east China sea. It will shatter Chinese confidence in their government and create instability if Taiwan goes independent. If Taiwan is not anti-China, is not an military ally of any other country, is a military ally with China including renting military bases to China, recognizes one-China policy for the time being, I will support Taiwan going full independent gradually. If your post makes Lil so happy, something is not right.
If you set yourself up with the fundamental premise that: those who (apparently) seek Taiwanese independence are my enemies, and I must disagree with them on all accounts... You're placing yourself in a trap. Because that means the only resolution you've allowed yourself is to either: - convince Lil to give up some of his most core convictions, - or taking Lil outside and shooting him in the head. The first option isn't likely, and the second option shouldn't be our goal. I think the key is to figure out the areas of compromise. And to do that, we have to figure out what we want. What do we really want from Taiwan? We want them to be Chinese. We don't want them to stop being Taiwanese, or live under Communist rule, or to give up minnanyu, or anything... we want them to be Chinese, with us. Instead of focusing on the "One China" principle, what we really want is the "One Chinese" principle. And are Lil and the "New Taiwanese" so fundamentally opposed to being Chinese, that the only solution to this conflict is to take'em outside and shoot them? I don't know about Lil, but I know that isn't true for the vast majority. Certainly, there are many that are opposed to the concept of being Chinese; there are fundamentalists, chauvanists who think being Chinese is an insult (let's take'em outside and shoot'em). But for the average Taiwanese (even the TI-supporters), they'd struggle to explain to us why they they aren't Chinese (except in political terms). And with a strong, prosperous China that is worthy of the title... I believe these Chinese-Taiwanese will find it difficult, and meaningless, to deny the Chinese part of their identity. I think the military/strategic talk about Taiwan's value is relatively meaningless. Look at a map of Asia in its entirety. A hostile Taiwan is certainly no more dangerous to mainland China than, say, a hostile Korea, a hostile Sri Lanka, a hostile Mongolia, or even worse, a hostile India. I think we'll be ok.
Great post. The ball is not in Taiwan's nor American's hand, it is in China's hand. If China handle herself right (not just in economical, but also in political and democracy wise), where is Taiwan going to go? The TIer's may be great in election, but they can't paddle their way to the other side of Pacific ocean. The way I see it, all this TI stuff is really just storm in the teapot. It makes absolutely no difference 50 years down the road. Mark my words, IF China takes care of herself, Taiwan will be part of China 50 years from now.
Add one more thing to my previous post. Mark my words, IF China takes care of herself, Taiwan will be part of China 50 years from now. And if China doesn't take good care of herself, Taiwan independence will be the least of her worry.
I don't mind if Taiwanese don't want to be Chinese. That is least important to me. When China becomes prosperous and strong, Taiwan is even less important. All they have is a small island full of people. Being prosperous and being strong are two different things. In the south Song dynasty, China was very prosperous, but still got conquered by the Monguls. The situation today is still similar. Money is not everything. When the oil supply of China is cut off, China has to use all her hard earned money just to buy some oil. Prosperity without security cannot last.
Heech; I nominate you for the most thoughtful and best poster on this thread, if not the whole D&D forum. If there were more people like you this wouldn't be an issue, and I mean that in the best way possible.
What you say is correct. However, not letting Taiwan going independent is part of taking care of herself. Taiwan independence is an imminent threat to China's stability and national security. Losing Taiwan peacefully is not the start of a peaceful development for China. It is an invitation for border conflicts with other countries and independent movements within the country. If we keep giving up our interests, where do we draw the line to stop? Look at the U.S., it is already the only super power in the world. But it still actively de-stablize other countries and protect its interest everywhere in the world. We need to learn from the Americans. Passive thinking will lead us to nowhere in this world. This is also similar to Yao Ming's development in the NBA.
Let's temporarily forget about the self-determination of the mainland Chinese. If you guys really cares about self-determination of all the Taiwanese people, how about splitting Taiwan into two parts: Republic Of China at Taiwan (ROCT) and Republic of Taiwan (ROT). ROCT will occupy the northern part of Taiwan and ROT will occupy the southern part of the island. The exact ratio of the two areas will be proportional to the population of the two countries. People will vote to show which country they want to live in. I think this is the most democratic and fair solution for the Taiwan issue. The wills of the pro eventual unification Taiwanese should not be violated.
I couldn't disagree with you more. Never forget to use history as our guide. No nation, however strong or prosperous it appears at any given moment, can stand forever; collapse is inevitable. Our societies are houses made of cards, and it does not take much to topple them. Economic disaster, foreign invasion, plague, religious upheaveal... sooner or later, every government and every nation that has ever been created by man, has been torn down by man. You can't name a single counter-example. There really is a cyclical process at work here; no one can stay on top forever. I don't care how "strong" the People's Republic of China becomes in the military/economic sense, I strongly suspect it (along with the USA and every other country) will be gone one day. I accept that as inevitable. The Tang, the Song, the Yuan, and the Qing... and of course the Romans, the Turks, the Mongols, the Aztecs... all were mighty, but all eventually collapsed. No matter how mighty you were at your peak, don't delude yourself into believing that "strength" can be passed down through the generations. What distinguishes Chinese civilization, and that's perhaps a better term than the "Chinese nation" or the "Chinese people", is the unique tendency for it to coalesce in time. We should know, by now, that staying together is the secret to long-term strength and prosperity. That unity alone can't guarantee every generation will live in a golden age (no one can)... but unity can shorten the period of our decline, and can prolong the prosperity of our rise. We shouldn't "do anything" to the Taiwanese to make them share this point of view, but we absolutely must keep in mind that our strongest responsiblity to our past, our present, and our future isn't to build more swords... but to preserve our unity and identity as Chinese. You know, a new analogy occurs to me... anyone else read Asimov's Foundation? I read it years ago, as a kid. Remember what Hari Seldon's purpose was in establishing the Foundation? It wasn't to strengthen the galaxy-spanning empire, because he realized it wasn't possible. It was to shorten the "Dark Age" between inevitable collapse, and inevitable rebirth. PS. I do agree with you unilateral self-determination is a ridiculous system for determining nation-hood. But that doesn't answer the question of: what do we do about Taiwan.
Heech, we actually agree on a lot of things. What we don't agree upon is what we do with the TI movement. My answer is that we have to use all means including military means to protect our interests and national unity now instead of waiting for 50 years.
Don't be silly. If it wasn't for the government keeping a strong lid on it, there'd be tens of millions of Chinese parading in cities today, calling for an immediate invasion of Taiwan. There're literally hundreds of millions of mainland Chinese willing to volunteer for military service for the purpose of retaking Taiwan. TechLabor isn't in the minority; he's in the majority. And that type of patriotism is an admirable thing. But the primary challenge for Beijing right now isn't fighting a war over Taiwan, but trying to keep the nation from *not* fighting Taiwan... so that we can focus on more important things. A military invasion of Taiwan will only serve the purpose of Taiwanese independence supporters. We're supposed to break the military balance in the Strait in 5-10 years... what will the military balance be like in 50 years?
