We may need to change the title on this if it becomes a named storm...but could be affecting things in the Gulf soon. We should have new data on it about 10. I'm a little more concerned with this one than others because I read yesterday that wind shear isn't projected to be as strong a force as it has been throughout the season, so far. Hopefully that changes.
Several of the models are still projecting this thing to get sheared but it isn't as certain as it has been in the past. The other tracks that don't have it getting sheared have it turning into the Florida panhandle. It is still something that bears watching though.
A tropical storm/hurricane hitting the unpopulated King Ranch area of South Texas & then turning up through the Hill Country would be a godsend. The drought up there is unbelievable.
I have connections with some local meteorologists. We've actually been talking about it for a couple of days now.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=479&tstamp=200608 To the west of TD 5 we see a large area of very high shear of up to 50 knots, south of Jamaica. This area of high shear is associated with a strong upper level trough of low pressure that has been a common feature over the Caribbean this season. The trough is moving westward, away from TD 5, but TD 5 is racing fast enough westward that it may catch up to this high shear area and get torn apart on Sunday. The 8pm UKMET and 2am GFS models both have TD 5 dissipating by Sunday, and this is reasonable forecast. However, the trough is forecast to split apart on Monday and leave a region of low shear very favorable for intensification of TD 5 in the western Caribbean. If the storm does manage to survive into Monday, we could end up with a dangerous hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. The latest runs of the GFDL and Canadian models prefer this solution, bringing the storm across Cuba and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. This is also a reasonable forecast. If you have travel plans to Jamaica, Cuba, or Cancun in the coming days, I would wait as long as possible to change them until we see if TD 5 will survive.
i'm not a big fan of the GFDL model, there. it doesn't seem to match the rest, though..there seems to be some sense of consensus among the others.
You are correct. It seems that the NOAA is very bias on which model they choose when relaying the information to the rest of us. Right now it seems they are using the GFDL model because it's the one simulating the storm heading towards United States. It grabs people's attention. They are like the friggin media now.
Actually the GFDL model is the one, I believe, that historically has been more accurate. There are 2 that most meteorologists deem to be accurate for the tropics. Jeff usually spits them out in these threads, so maybe he will come along and tell us which ones they are.
Just my luck... My fiance and I are flying to Playa del Carmen (just south of Cancun) on Tuesday for our wedding on Saturday the 2nd.... plus we have about 60 people flying down late next week. PLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEASE head north and miss the Yucatan! We have been planning this since February! I thought after Debbie, we would have the all clear!
Maybe some good news. My weather guy just said the TD was barely hanging on right now. It caught up to the shearing winds and is getting ripped up.
No offense, but you planned your wedding during hurricane season and the first weekend of college football, bad idea. I got married down there 3 years ago, it was a lot of fun, good luck and I hope you are spared weather wise. Where is the wedding, we got married at the iberostar paradaiso del mar I think.
I'm supposed to be flying out Friday morning to New Orleans for a bachelor party...hopefully it will die out before then.
