That's what post 12 and 13 were. Oh yeah, I definitely noticed the tiredness of the 2nd half. The Rockets clearly were outhustled. But in the 1st half, I really thought the Rockets should have been up by at least 10 points. Everybody already knows the offensive problems they had in the 1st half, but their Defense looked great. The only reason the TWolves had a 4 point lead was because of the Rockets 10 second defense: transition, 2ndary transition, and just Mike James schooling our guards before the rest of our team could get back to help. And according to the stats, it looks like our D doesn't get great until everyone is set. Nobody's 10second defense is as good as their 11+ second defense, but the Rockets' is relatively terrible, while their 11+ defense is amazingly good. I'm really going to watch this carefully tonight to see how Charlotte scores. See ya in chat R2K. And yeah, A3PO, cutting down on turnovers would do wonders for the defense.
I agree the Rockets in the first half looked good. That first quarter they looked great but the second quarter it looked like neither team was in sync. James had some good pushes and Craig Smith got a few nice shots in traffic but what killed us more was our O was just terrible. As I mentioned before it didn't make sense to me why Head was playing PG and V-Span played SG. Head didn't an OK job but maybe V-Span could've got things going more if he was bringing up the ball. Our D wasn't great in this game but it wasn't terrible and kept us in the game to the end. We lost this game because of two reasons. Our O after the first quarter just never quite clicked (largely due to fatigue IMO) and the T-Wolves hustled and passed well. This was a game we could've won if our O could've come through some more in the 4th.
In the immortal words of Kelly Bundy, "Urethra, I have done it!" The Rockets cannot beat the Suns in the playoffs. We need to avoid them at all costs. They're just a terrible match up. The basic premise is that the Suns are a running team and good shooting team and that's what the Rockets aren't good at defending. So I'm going to statistically show it. Okay, this is going to take many many more hours to finish, but so far the evidence seems pretty consistent. I've gone all the way back 2 years ago up til now, even though both teams have changed a lot. Let's start with the Defense during the last Suns game: 105 total conditional possessions (not including end of quarter heaves and intentional fouls) 100 points, 30 FT attempts, 15 turnovers 42.9 FG%, 43.1% 2pters, 42.1% 3pters, 48.1 eFG% 62 possession vs set halfcourt defense, 11 or more seconds used 58 points, 23 FT attempts, 8 turnovers 38.6 FG%, 44.8% 2pters, 26.7% 3pters, 43.2 eFG% 59% of possessions, 57.1% of shots attempted 43 possessions vs transition defense, 10 or less seconds used 42 points, 7 FT attempts, 7 turnovers 48.5 FG%, 41.4% 2pters, 100% 3pters, 54.5 eFG% 41% of possessions, 42.9% of shots attempted Look at those stats carefully. In terms of defensive success ratio, the Rockets really aren't that off from their averages. According to 82games.com stats, the eFG% defense for shots taken in 10seconds or less is usally 54.7%, and that includes offensive put backs from the half court. As stated earlier, 82Games.com doesn't filter their statistics because it's a computer program, while I'm trying to accurately guage success ratio differentials between transition and half court defense. It looks like the Rockets' half court defense was pretty much as good as usual. Normally, the Rockets give up 41.9% shooting and 35.2% from 3pt land. In the Suns game, the only area where the Suns shot well was from the transition 3pt shooting, but otherwise their success percentages were similar to most Rocket Opponents. So here's the main problem:how did the Suns end up with 100 points when the Rockets normally give up only 87.9? (I'm not counting the last 2 free throws) It was a combination fo things. The Suns shot their freethrows really well at 87.5% compared the overall opponent ft average of 73.8. They also had four "and 1" plays for extra free throw attempts. The Suns made a couple of more 3 pointers than Rockets opponents usually do. Lastly, the pace of the game was very slightly higher than the average, so it resulted in a couple of more possessions. But here's the main crux of it. The Rockets opponents usually score 43% of their field goal points in 10 seconds or less. The percentage is even lower when you filter it for offensive put backs. So in reality, even though the stat doesn't exist, I think it is fair to say Rockets opponents score about 38% of their field goal points against transition defense and 62% of their field goal points against set half court defense. In the Suns game, the Suns scored 49% of their field goal points vs the Rockets transition defense and 51% of their field goal points vs the Rockets' set half court defense. Rockets opponents take 36% of their shots in 10 seconds or less unfiltered, so the true percentage is probably around 31% of all shots taken are taken against Rockets transition defense. In the Suns game, 43% of the Suns shots were taken against Rockets transition Defense. What does this mean? In simple terms, the Suns like to get quick shots. This is not just fast break points, but it's also non set plays: just come down, dribble for a second, make pass and then shoot. And the problem is this is the Rockets biggest flaw on Defense. While the Suns weren't any more efficient at quick scores vs the Rockets than any other Rockets opponent, the Suns were way more persistent at it. The Suns style of play is about getting up and down and shooting fast. The Rockets defense overall is the best in the League, but that is anchored by them being great at halfcourt defense. Statistically the Rockets transition defense is just average. To further explain, it's about the greatness of Jeff Van Gundy's system. Individually, none of the Rockets except for Shane Battier, are great individual defenders, and even Shane has his limitations. But as a team defense, with Yao manning the paint, and TMac, Shane, Hayes, and Rafer/Luther switching and running around everywhere...from a team sense, they are spectacular. It's because the system is good, and these guys have been great at executing the system. But the system is a 5 man team defending another 5 man team. What the Suns are great at is nullifying this advantage. In addition to fast breaking, which they are the best in the league at, they also play one on one, two on two, three on three, and four on four. While they can score okay in the half court, their specialty is to get the ball downcourt as fast as possible and shoot. This means it's going to be Nash one on one vs Rafer, or Nash and Bell vs Rafer and Mac, or Barbosa, Nash and Marion vs Head, Rafer, and Hayes. You see, that's a problem. Individually, the Suns are really good offensive players and the Rockets aren't very strong defensively. The Suns take so many shots against a non set defense, and the Rockets don't have that individual quickness to stop them. The Rockets team defense is great, but if you can downcourt against the Rockets before all 5 of the guys are back and ready, you have a greater chance of scoring. Other elite teams that can defend the early scoring better than the Rockets have talented athletes that can hold their own when they're on an island. Ginobili and Parker and Duncan don't need too much help. Kirelinko flies back and swats early penetration. Yao is not the type of guy like Dream who will run downcourt to stop an early score...while he can do that, it's not his forte. And that is why I believe the Suns would own the Rockets in the playoffs. It's just too bad of a matchup. The only way to stop their tempo control is to not commit turnovers and absolutely dominate the boards, and even then, you'd have to play really really really good basketball to beat them. It's just the team makeup, and the stats have proven it so far. I'm much more confident if the Rockets play the Spurs or even the Mavs. Or hopefully Kirk Snyder can come back and be a defensive stopper. There's not too much new theory in this post, for controlling the tempo is always discussed. But what is new is the clear evidence of how important temp control is, especially to the Rockets. And it is my opinion that the Rockets cannot totally control the tempo against the Suns. We just don't matchup well with them. Everytime we miss a shot, they're going to try their hardest to get downcourt, and they're relentless. We either need better defenders than Head and Alston, or...i just don't know. Rockets have lost 4 in a row to Phoenix and it just doesn't look good. I'm pretty confident I've figured out the problem here, but how do they fix it? I'm just not sure. It's one thing to play great and hope the other team doesn't, but when both teams are playing well, the Rockets will lose. It's just not a good matchup. I hope y'all can refute this. I really do. I want some good discussion to show that the Rockets can stop the Phoenix quick strike offense.
Kim, great work! With what we have now, what does our D quickness look like? Yao, Mutombo, Howard - all not very quick. Tmac & Shane quick in bursts. Novak & Padge a set of fresh legs. Rafer seems faster on O than on D. A healthy Bonzi and Sura would fit into this middle group. Hayes, Head, Lucas, Vspan, Snyder quick with Lucas probably the fastest. I just do not really like Snyder's D and I think the stats show his weakness. So how do we use this group to improve transition D? My stab in the dark - against the run & gun Suns? PLATOONING! Run the entire bench in & out for shorter periods of time the entire game. Keep running fresh legs at the Suns. Heck, nothing else has worked. Ask your starters to run full tilt for 28-30 mpg, and your bench to give you about 12-16 mpg each. It could make for some screwy rotations but who knows, that might really screw with the Suns' heads. I would love to see Vspan and Lucas take some turns going after Nash and harrasing him, even trying to slow him down so perhaps Shane had some time to come over and help and then get us into our 11+ second defense. More D in the backcourt before the ball is ever inbounded. Do anything to try to slow them down. Some trapping. Admittedly this is a concession that our 8 man rotation cannot stay with theirs for 48 minutes. Pretty much the truth.
Kim Is Mcgrady bad at transition d as well? i always thought he was a above average defender if he bothered putting in the effort as well? I mean you put Ginobilli and Parker in the same category, if Battier and Mcgrady basically ran most of our transition defence would that give us a better % you think?
Kim, I can't refute your conclusion against the Suns by citing statistics but look back 2 years ago against them. Game 1 @Houston: Suns win 108-98. I remember McGrady saying after the game the Rockets just weren't ready to play a team like Phoenix. He was glad we didn't play them again the next day. Game 2 @Phoenix: Rockets win 127-107. The Suns were on the verge of blowing the game out in the 3rd quarter and we steamrolled them the rest of the game. It was beautiful as we got back on defense, focused on cutting off Nash's passing lanes and frustrated them completely over the last 20 minutes of the game. Our offense was clicking and we destroyed their weak defense. Game 3 @Houston: Suns win 91-78. Our backcourt of MJ/Sura/Wesley was horrific and the offense completely bogged down. This was the kind of game that brought out anger in these parts. Game 4 @Phoenix: Rockets win 98-97 just six days after losing at home to the Suns. McGrady carried the team, plain and simple. This was the game where Steven Hunter somehow missed a point-blank putback in at the buzzer. The key to stopping the Suns is getting back on defense and making them work on offense. The key then becomes slicing up their weak defense. If/when our offense comes together, the Rockets will be the perfect foil for the Suns. In a 7 game playoff series where teams gauge and recalibrate after each game, I don't fear them at all. In 05, most of us here felt the Suns would be a better matchup than the Mavs (based on the regular season). In the first game this season, I feel we would have won if Yao hadn't gotten in foul trouble. The energy we used in the comeback sapped the team and we just ran out of gas. If Tracy had stopped jacking up jumpers we would have tied the game much quicker and could have blown them out. We lost the game more than the Suns beat us. The Spurs and Mavs are bigger playoff concerns to me than the Suns.
richirich, a deeper rotation could help. The Rockets played better transition Defense 2 years ago than they do today, holding opposing unfiltered 10second eFG% to 49.6, compared to 55.1 this year. That year, the Rockets played a 9 and 10 man rotation, depending on the game. This year the Rockets are 1 man less going about 8 deep...hopefully that changes when Snyder gets back and VSpan would still get minutes. 2 years ago, our transition D was anchored by a spry T-Mac, a younger David Wesley, a healthy Bob Sura, and an intense Mike James. bbjai, T-Mac is a good defender in transition in my opinion. He can run back, recover, get transition steals and block shots. He hasn't been as crisp as he was 2 years ago, but T-Mac alone is not enough. I'm surprised that T-Mac Battier, and Hayes can't anchor it, but the evidence has shown that they've been subpar here. Perhaps it's because Hayes is fighting for Offensive Rebounds and Mac and Batt aren't just that quick. It also doesn't help that Rafer and Luther are pretty terrible defenders. They're our weak link. And to think about it, Hayes is a good team defender and can hold his own against many players. But Marion and Stoudamire has, and will continue to eat Hayes and Jho and Yao alive when it comes to running down court and putting up shots. It's their strength and our weakness. Barbosa and Nash playing 2 on 2 vs Rafer and Head, even if it's just for 7 seconds, is a terrible mismatch in their favor. A_3PO, sadly the Suns have become better at the fast break since 2 years ago, and the Rockets have become worse at defending it. The Suns have raised their unfiltered 10second offensive eFG% from .557 to .604. While the Rockets Defensive unfilted eFG% has gone up from .496 to .551. And the 2 teams have changed personnel, but the philosophy remains similar It's much easier said than done to "get back on defense and make them work on offense". Yes, that is the key, but I think the problem is the Rockets team make-up does not allow them to do so. It is my opinion, backed up by stats, and some rhetoric. So all in all, I'm still not persuaded. And thinking back at that last game, the reason the Rockets were able to get back in it was by making the Suns play half court offense. But I just don't think we can hold them that way the entire game. They just have so much speed and quickness and force their running ways. It would take extremem discipline and great execution to win. So that's just the main thing. We can beat them, but we're just not a good matchup, so we have to play at a higher level to win. Otherwise, we're screwed.
Okay, here's a reminder. I'm trying to filter this as much as possible to get true stats. So you have to take into account things like the type of free throws and if shots are coming out of side outs and stuff. Another twist I'm going to add from now on is a points-per-possession stat (ppp) and a ppp that includes assuming all free throws made (pppaaftm) . While all teams have different success at shooting freethrows, I think it's important that I assume all freethrows are made and make an additional stat. This is because really good or really bad freethrow shooting can skew the defensive stats and can create a perception of good or bad defense. Wizards Game Defensive breakdown: 114 Possessions total in game 109 points, 38 FT attempts, 10 turnovers 39.8 FG%, 37.1% 2pters, 46.2% 3pters, 46.6 eFG% .956 ppp, 1.053 pppaaftm 83 Possessions vs Half Court Defense 80 points, 26 FT attempts, 6 turnovers 38.5 FG%, 37.2% 2pters, 40.9% 3pters, 45.4% eFG 72.8% of possessions, 76.1% of shots attempted, 73.4% of total points .964 ppp, 1.024 pppaaftm 31 Possessions vs Transition Defense 29 points, 12 FT attempts, 4 turnovers 47.6% FG, 41.2% 2pters, 75.0% 3pters, 54.8% eFG 27.2% of possessions, 23.9% of shots attempted, 26.6% of total points .935 ppp, 1.129 pppaaftm compare it to what the Rockets normally do Rockets Average Defensive Stats per game: 90 average defensive possessions per game 87.7 points, 25.2 FT attempts, 14.4 turnovers 41.2% FG, 42.6% 2pters, 35.5% 3pters, 44.9% eFG 36% of shots attempted in 10 or less seconds ***unfiltered*** .974 ppp, 1.049 pppaaftm
Okay, time to analyze that game. Before breaking down the stats, I once again made the assumption I made of the Suns game. I figured the Wiz were an up and down team like the Suns, but in reality the Rockets really limited them in that respect for this game. The Wizards had 11 fast break points this game, and while that's about what the Rockets give up in strictly fast break points, the Rockets usually only have 90 defensive possessions per game. This game had 114 defensive possessions, so fast breaking really wasn't that big of a factor. Now of course it would always be nice to cut down on turnovers and limit all fast break opportunities, but the fact is, the Rockets didn't do poorly in game compared to what they usually do. Now let's look at the transition defense, not just fast breaks, but 2ndary breaks, and everything else coming in 10 seconds or less off of a rebound or steal. It doesn't look so bad. Of course, transition D field goal % is higher than half court D field goal %, but that's the same for every team. And it has already been established that the Rockets transition D is one of the worst amongst contenders in the West. But compared to how they've done in recent games, the Rockets are consistent here. Their transition D eFG% for the Wiz game is pretty much what they've been doing for most games. But even better though, the Rockets were able to limit the Wiz to 31 transition possessions out of 114 total possessions. Perhaps they set a tone in the 1st quarter that said "you're not going to run on us," for in the 1st quarter, the Rockets totally dominated the Wizard's transition game. The Wiz shot 2 for 7 and had 4 turnovers in the 1st. For the rest of the game, the Wizards were much more efficient in their transition/quick shot offense; however they didn't nearly push it as much. Compared to the Suns game, where 43 out of 105 total possessions were in transition, the Rockets did a very good job in slowing the game down in my opinion. So how the heck is this a high scoring game. Are the stats lying? Didn't it feel like an up and down game? The answer is a combination of things. It was actually the Rockets that surprisingly pushed the game speed as much as the Wizards did. But the main reason for the increased possessions in this game for the Wizards was the offensive rebounding. Rockets opponents usually only rebound offensively 26% of their makes, but the Wizards offensively rebounded 32% of their makes. Maybe because Chuck Hayes had fouled out so early, or I don't know. Defensively, the Rockets were pretty strong in their halfcourt. They gave up a lot of 3's but that's what the Wizards do. Their fast defense wasn't good, but it was on par with their norm. So...I guess it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the Wizards had too many offensive rebounds. But it's by analyzing and isolating the transition defense that we can eliminate it as major factor in this game, relative to other Rockets games. The 38 FT attempts were also high, but when you take in account the 114 possession, then you realize that the normal ratio expanded would make 32 FT normal. So the Rockets were still 6 FT attempts higher than normal, which could be attributed to transition (though it would take a lot more research on my part to see figure this out), but also attributed to the three And-1 freethrows and 2 technical freethrows, and of course more FT's resulting from higher than normal offensive rebounding. So overall I think this game is a little bit of progress in transition D....very, very, little. The 1st quarter transition D was great, mainly because the Rockets shut down Gilbert (or Gilbert shut down himself). Arenas took a bunch of quick shots and missed em all, and also got the ball stolen from him 4 times in transition (Rafer with 2, and Yao and Jho 1 each). Battier and Deke also got back and blocked 2 shots in semi-transition. So the transition D for the rest of the game was pretty crappy, and it evened out to on par for the whole game. But possibly in my opinion, it was the greatness of the transition 1st quarter D that scared the Wizards from taking as many quick shots for the rest of the game. So really, if the Rockets could have kept the Wizards off the glass, it would have been a blowout.
-Bill Worrell Me thinks Bill Worrell has selective memory, or gone senile. Sigh, I wish stats were better. This in-depth tracking that I'm attempting is taking forever. And after the filters I've already place, I then start thinking about dividing the transition opportunities. I mean, if the team is fast breaking from a half court steal, there's really nothing you can do defensively. It's so difficult to attribute blame to which aspect of your game (half court D, transition D, turnovers, a combo of each) and interpret the stats correctly to formulate a conclusion. And then free throws coming off of a loose ball foul...what the heck does that have to do with defense? There needs to be a statistical revolution...the fans are getting dumbed down because the common fan and media are using archaic methods to jump to conclusions when there's so much more to it. Anyhow, my stuff ain't perfect, but it's 10 times better than what's out there. So here it goes. Remember, I'm filtering the heck out of the stats for things like half court heaves, arguing techs, and loose ball fouls shouldn't be counted in determining defensive success. Golden State game breakdown 106 possessions total 106 points, 32 FT attempts, 15 turnovers 48.1 FG%, 51.9 eFG% 1.0 ppp, 1.075 pppaaftm comments: Okay, this is already looking bad. The Rockets usually hold their opponents to 41.5 FG% and 45.3 eFG%, and it's not like Golden State dominated the offensive tip ins, so let's see what went wrong. 63 Possessions vs Half Court Defense 68 points, 16 FT attempts, 5 turnovers 47.2 FG%, 50.9% eFG 59.4% of possessions, 67.1% of shots attempted, 64.2% of total points 1.079 ppp, 1.111 pppaaftm comments: overall, the half court D just sucked last night. It really wasn't even a 3pt barrage. 43 Possessions vs Transition Defense 44 points, 16 FT attempts, 10 turnovers 50.0% FG, 53.8% eFG 40.6% of possessions, 32.9% of shots attempted, 35.8% of total points .884 ppp, 1.023 pppaaftm comments: I still think Bill Worrell is wrong, but for this game overall, it seemed like the transition D was great. The stats back it up too. I decided to carefully go over the game again to see where things went wrong. The turning point seemed to be a timeout with 3:36 left in the 3rd quarter. The Rockets were ahead at the time 71-59, after over 32 minutes of playing. During the final 16 minutes of the game, the Warriors outscored the Rockets 50-36. What went wrong? So I decided to break down the stats before and after that point. 47 Possessions vs Half Court Defense before 3:36 left in the 3rd 48 points, 12 FT attempts, 4 turnovers 44.7 FG%, 48.7% eFG 1.021 ppp, 1.043 pppaaftm 16 Possessions vs Half Court Defense after 3:36 left in the 3rd 20 points, 4 FT attempts, 1 turnovers 53.3% FG, 56.7% eFG 1.250 ppp, 1.313 pppaaftm 27 Possessions vs Transition Defense before 3:36 left in the 3rd 13 points, 8 FT attempts, 8 turnovers 26.7 FG%, 26.7% eFG .481 ppp, .593 pppaaftm 16 Possessions vs Transition Defense after 3:36 left in the 3rd 25 points, 8 FT attempts, 2 turnovers 81.8% FG, 90.9% eFG 1.563 ppp, 1.750 pppaaftm That timeout really looks like the turning point of the game. Before that, Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes, and Yao were kicking serious ass when it came to transition D. Seriously, the stats show it and I remember it too: Battier and Yao were running back and swatting drives. Battier and Chuck were drawing charges all over the place. After the 3:36 mark, everything went to hell. The Rockets were already having a horrible game in the half court defense by their own standards. And after that point it got a bit worse. But the main difference is the transition D after that point. The change is quite amazing. I guess Nellie told his team to run run run. And before that, the Warriors were running a lot already, about 1 out of every 3 possessions they were able to challenge the Rockets in transition. But the Rockets were totally destroying them. But after that 3:36 mark, the Warriors were running every chance they got, and challenged the transition D every other possession. They ran out of missed shots, made shots, free throws, and of course turnovers. And they got smarter with their runs. Shane Battier seemed to be the only man back at times, but the Warriors were avoiding the charge, and there was only so much Shane could do by himself. So in the end, I really think the Rockets chances of winning are greatly decreased when the other team quickens the pace. The turnovers need to get cut in half. It's not just Yao's fault, for everyone is chipping in at a horrible rate. The amazing transition D in display throughout most of th first 3 quarters went to hell when Golden State decided to turn on the after burners. Rafer, VSpan, and Luther are just terrible, horrible, inept, transition defenders. Their mistakes get covered up in the half court by the great team rotations and defense of Battier, Hayes, and Yao. And even in the full court, Battier and Yao and Hayes were kicking ass this game, and it really shouldn't even be their responsibility. Yao and Chuck should be dominating the boards (which they were) and Battier should be guarding the best perimeter player (which he was), yet these guys were the only guys doing anything worth a damn in transition D. That's another thing that JHo can't do that doesn't show up in the stats. I love Jho's hustle of late, but he's just no where near the transition defender that Hayes is. Sadly, the last play of the game was a transition defense breakdown between Yao and Battier. Yao ended up guarding Davis and got picked. Yao needs to fight over that pick, not accept it. And Battier was way too far off of the picker so his switch was way too late. Sigh. It just sucks. The Rockets need to slow it down to win. Lower the possessions while continuing to dominate the boards. While Yao can run up and down with success, it will only tire him out more. Hayes and Battier can take charges, but when teams adjust to that and run better, the other defenders need to step up and close the penetration. Our guards dictate the tempo on offense and defense. And when challenged, they've been failing to control the game. I really hope T-Mac and Snyder get back soon. But I'm not even sure if that would be enough.
