Tracy McGrady for MVP?

Rants and Raves: Dan Graf
The Sporting News

Consider this a rare combined rant and rave, where we separate the pretenders from the contenders in the MVP race.

I was doing a radio show Tuesday night, and the host asked me a fairly standard question for these types of appearances: "Who is the MVP this season?"

The problem is, I didn't have a ready answer, so I filibustered, naming off just about every All-Star-caliber player in the league. It's not that I can't recite all the best players' stats and their team's records off the top of my head, it's just that no one really sticks out this year. There is no Allen Iverson, putting up amazing numbers on an amazing team. It's that combination that usually wins the award, but with four weeks left in the season, someone will have to step up in the final month to be such a clear-cut choice.

Still, I want to have an answer to this all-important question the next time someone asks, so let's put our best people on this. We'll start with 15 names from playoff contending teams-six from the East (Jason Kidd, Jerry Stackhouse, Paul Pierce, Tracy McGrady, Iverson and Michael Jordan) and nine from the West (Chris Webber, Dirk Nowitzki, Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Gary Payton, Karl Malone and Elton Brand).

The first cut is the players who have missed too many games. That means goodbye to Jordan (Wizards), Webber (Kings) and O'Neal (Lakers). All these players have missed at least 14 games, and an MVP must show up a little more frequently than that. If Shaq's in the running, he's probably the MVP if the Lakers finish strong, but no player has won an MVP while missing at least 14 games since Bill Walton (he missed 24) in 1977-78.

The second cut is players with an offending statistic. This means goodbye Kidd (Nets) and his 38.3 percent shooting and 14.8 points a game and Stackhouse (Pistons) and his 40.3 percent shooting that is punctuated by 28.1 percent 3-point shooting at the rate of more than four a game. Iverson (76ers) gets a free pass for his similar numbers because he's averaging 31.4 points a game to Stackhouse's 22. In the West, remove Brand (Clippers). He's carrying L.A. through injuries, but you need to top 20 points to be an MVP, and he's at 18.3.

Finally, eliminate players from the teams that have virtually no chance at a top-four seed in the playoffs. As much as I'd like to give Payton (Sonics) the nod, he and Malone (Jazz) are gone on this cutdown. This might be unfair because the Sonics and Jazz have comparable records to Iverson's 76ers and McGrady's Magic, but we're not ready to lose those guys just yet.

That leaves players from two camps: shooting guards (Iverson, McGrady Pierce and Bryant) and power forwards (Nowitzki, Duncan and Garnett).

Here's where things get pretty subjective, and where it almost certainly will come down to the last month. This also is where Bryant (Lakers) and Pierce (Celtics) get off. The Lakers are 2-0 in games without Bryant. Because he has Shaq alongside him, Bryant at least needs to be the most valuable player on his own team, and he still isn't. Pierce is a great scorer and an underrated rebounder and defender, but unlike Iverson (5.6 assists per game) and McGrady (5.3), Pierce (3.0) isn't setting up his teammates for baskets. Pierce also has Antoine Walker to help set him up. There's no better statistic to show how much of a one-man gang McGrady and Iverson are than the Magic's 1-3 record without McGrady and the 76ers' 0-8 mark without Iverson.

Among power forwards, comparisons are a bit easier because Nowitzki (Mavericks), Duncan (Spurs) and Garnett (Timberwolves) all do the same things well statistically and all play with good supporting casts. Eliminate Garnett and Nowitzki simply because Duncan leads the three in average points (25.1 points), rebounds (12.7), field-goal shooting (49.8 percent) and blocks (2.5).

That leaves McGrady, Iverson and Duncan as the remaining candidates. From there, it's a matter of preference. So who will I pick on my next radio show?

It probably depends on who's hot at the time, but right now that's McGrady. Given that he has far less to work with than even Iverson (there's no Dikembe Mutombo and Derrick Coleman inside to divert attention on the Magic) and given that he's just starting to show his stuff after struggling with a sore back all season (35.6 points, 6.7 assists and 8.5 rebounds in his last six games), it's a good bet he'll separate himself even from this pack in the final month if he gets the Magic another rung or two up the playoff ladder. Hopefully, that will settle the argument more than this somewhat unscientific analysis.

I like this article. I agree with him.