"The Rookie Wall"

Great writeup verse. It does surprise me that so many don't even know what a rookie wall means.

 

Chase has the advantage of being fairly well rounded; in particular he is an above average passer and rebounder at the guard/forward positions. He is the type of player that could still help the team even when his shot isn't falling, but I think that this team has enough depth at those positions that his minutes will simply drop if he can't produce. That's why I picked the under on the 11.5 mpg prediction for him.

I don't see Jermaine Taylor playing enough minutes to ever reach the rookie wall.

Andersen is not a college rookie -- he's a seasoned FIBA veteran. Truthfully, their seasons aren't as long/challenging as the NBA's either, but I don't think the rookie wall will affect him any more than it did Scola. Besides, he may not get that many minutes either. His height doesn't give the Rockets real any advantages inside over the other players at F/C who are more experienced than he is.

 

verse, great thread. I'll give you my opinions, but first I must say the "rookie wall" paradigm has changed a lot over the last 25 years. I think it may be because coaches and the staff now pull back with some players once the realize they're "failing" on the court for the first time in their lives.

Especially with high draft picks, the money invested in these kids dictates major strokes of their psyche's from a business and salary cap perspective.

Back in the day, everything was more brutal. Coaches forced rookies to grind through weeks and months when they were legless and mentally frazzled because of what the franchises needed them to eventually become. Now there's a lot more nurturing going on.

I also do think there's a difference with our recent rookies. Brooks was a very low first round pick, so expectations weren't that great and he did look to me as lost at times at the end of his rookie year as he did at the beginning.

So now to all our 2nd rounders (and Euro) rookies. Landry's rookie year was almost ideal for a 2nd rounder. A bust in summer league, looked horrible the little he played in preseason and "practiced" his way into the rotation a month before the all-star break.

He did lose his legs at the end of the season, but regained some steam in the playoffs. So I think I have this model as I go on to:

1. Chase - I don't care about shooting percentages in preseason, I care about shot selection, playmaking and defense. The Mavs game did worry me because he just wasn't getting elevation on his shot and it seemed everytime he shot there was a delay on his release.

I hope the kid just rested for a couple of days and studied film. I agree with Morey that he is the real deal, but we're going to need him this year (especially until TMac comes back) so he'll probably be thrown into the fire and stay there for awhile.

2. JT - He still looks lost, but I still have hope that he can contribute this year. He'll probably have to go the Landry route D-League then impress in practice, but I'm not as down on him as many here are.

3. Andersen - The learning curve is looking like an anvil on his head at this point, which is ok. I like his shot selection and I think he'll be a better shooter than he's shown. But he's making horrible mistakes offensively and defensively.
There were a couple of offensive possessions in the Mavs game (I think back to back) that Andersen caused Ariza to commit turnovers and Andersen was so out of position that I really started to wonder about this guy.

But Euros vets do tend to adjust, and though I can't prove this it seems that many of the play ball almost year round anyway. So I'm hopeful the rookie wall isn't looming here.

I was really hoping Andersen would have been pushing for a starting spot by tonight. Not even close.