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Rookie Stat Predictions

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Truth, Jun 27, 2002.

  1. thacabbage

    thacabbage Contributing Member

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    I think Ming will have his troubles adjusting to the NBA game defensively. It is just unrealistic to think that he will take the league by storm on both ends of the court from the start. On the other hand, I think he will have an immediate impact offensively. People forget that when Steve Francis was healthy, he and Cuttino Mobley were able to transform Kelvin Cato into a 10+ppg center. Kelvin Cato is a joke. There is nothing that Kelvin Cato can do at an above average NBA level. Kelvin Cato is a complete joke. From what is being said of him, Yao Ming has a very high basketball IQ and good hands. With the play of our guards, Ming's offensive impact will be <i>immediate</i>. I don't think you will see him create his own shot that much this season, but he will find himself open under the basket for dunks and alone on the perimeter for jumpers if his range is as good as advertised. He should be able to make a living off of the penetration of those two guys. As the years progress, we should hopefully see him develop a full-blown offensive repertoire that will make this offense devestating. Have I mentioned how excited I am about this pick? I think for this season, Ming will average around 8-10ppg with 8rpg.


    I am even more excited with the selection of Nachbar. This guy is <i>exactly</i> what this team needed. A mature player with experience and the capability to shoot. Since the start of the Olajuwon era, the Rockets have always had good shooters, but never good players that could shoot. If the descriptions of Nachbar are true, he will instantly spread the floor for the guards and run the wings on the fastbreak. IMHO, Nachbar will be one of the most effective rookies this season but his statistics will not be too high as he will be coming off the bench behind Glen Rice.
     
  2. B

    B Member

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    105.2 PPG without Norris, Morris or Torres. We really would be like the Kings scoring wise if this happens. :) Of course these numbers could pan out like this with Rice and someone else getting hurt early in the season.

    B
     
  3. New Jack

    New Jack Member

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    Yao Ming: 12ppg 8rpg 2bpg
    Bostjan Nachbar: 15ppg 3rpg
     
  4. tozai

    tozai Member

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    Yep, maybe Yao gets more points, but that's what I'm thinkin
     
  5. RocketFan007

    RocketFan007 Member

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    Yao- 12.5 pts 7.6 rebs 2.5 blocks
    Nachbar- 9.2 pts 4.2 rebs 1.8 assists
     
  6. HAYJON02

    HAYJON02 Member

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    Shaq wears size 22 triple E shoes
    Ming wears size 19

    shaq is a freak. he is awesome in size and skill. olajuwon dismantled him with footwork. bigger is not always better. ming just needs some good footwork. i guess well just have to wait and see how it goes...

    ming 15/10/3
    nachbar 12/5/4
     
  7. NewRoxFan

    NewRoxFan Member

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    Yao: 12ppg, 7rpg, 2apg, 2bpg. Anything more and he will have been well worth the first pick.

    Nachbar: 9ppg, 3rpg, 3apg. Again, anything more and he is well worth the 15th pick.

    btw, I believe both were great picks (as I do believe Maddox was a great pick). I tend to think folks overestimate how players perform (and thus you get unrealistic team scoring predictions like the 105ppg posted above).

    Griffin should score more. Rice should score more. Mobley and Francis should score about the same but the assists numbers will go up.
     
  8. The Cat

    The Cat Member

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    In many of the European leagues, star players don't often average over 20 minutes or so per game... it was the same case with Gasol last year. They believe in using depth, and often a more team oriented system, so many European stars in the NBA don't have the stats you'd think they would've had playing there.

    From what I've read, and from the people I've talked to (boville), Nachbar's game is more comparable to Stojakovic, but with the explosion of Turkoglu added to it. It's hard to call him a clone of either one of them, because he could actually be better. He has an excellent shot, like Peja (23 of 25 threes), but he also has the athletic ability to explode to the basket for dunks and layups, like Turkoglu.

    I think Nachbar will have a better rookie season than Ming, if anything because of his position. When you play down low, there's a big gap in the physical nature of other leagues to the NBA. Nachbar plays a position that demands less physically, and he also comes from a stronger league. Also, since he will be playing from the wing, he should get a lot of open looks simply off of Francis and Mobley penetrations. The real adjustment for Nachbar and Ming will be on the defensive side on the ball, but with Glen Rice, there's not much better of an alternative.

    I have some confidence that Nachbar will be in the starting lineup. I do think he's ready to contribute immediately, and he would benefit from Francis and Mobley being creators for him. I don't think Rice is washed up-- I think he has some game left-- but I would prefer him in the sixth man role so that he can come in with the second unit. I don't like the idea of Nachbar and Ming in at the same time along with Moochie, Kenny, and the rest of the bench. Rice is a good leader on the floor, and we could use someone like that on the second unit with Ming. Nachbar can learn and improve from having Steve, Cuttino, and Mo (somewhat veterans) alongside him.
     
  9. hoopgod13

    hoopgod13 Member

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    Ya..Pau averaged like 10-12 ppg in Spain his last year...and last year he dominated with like 17 and 8. Hopefully Nasty Nach can produce at least half of P-P-P-Pau.
     
  10. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    I disagree. I think a healthy Glen Rice is the PERFECT starting SF for the Rockets. That's why they traded for him knowing how much he made. The Rockets need a deadeye shooter who can drain the open J and will make defenses pay for leaving him to double Steve or Cuttino. A healthy Rice is as good as any player in the league in that department.

    Remember, for those of you who want to say Rice is washed up, that he had never had a major injury until 2000-01 with the Knicks (plantar fascitis) and he still played through the pain to come off the bench to score 12.3 ppg. I'm sorry, but a bench player playing with a serious foot injury scoring over 12 a game is impressive to me. Rice rested the foot over that following offseason, came back rusty with the Rockets, then messed up his knee. Tough luck for Rice, but by no means (yet, at least) does this mean that he is "washed up." He's had plenty of time to rest the knee, is now back healthy, and is tearing up the summer leagues in Miami. And before you complain about lack of competition there, he still has to MAKE shots to put up the 40 ppg he's scoring. No matter what the competition level, that translates into good news if he's out on the wing and his man leaves to guard Steve or Cat.

    Bottom line: A healthy Glen Rice is our starting SF. Period. I see Nachbar filling a very similar role to Turkoglu in SAC, Jefferson in NJ, or Miles for the Clips: A young athletic player off the bench who can spark the offense with the second unit. In fact, Nachbar is the perfect bench player for the Rockets.

    P.S. Sorry I'm ranting so long, but anyone who think Eddie Griffin starts at PF over a fully healthy Mo Taylor (another big "if") is kinding himself. Carroll Dawson himself has said that this will be another developmental year for Eddie and that they expect him to truly emerge as a budding star in 2003-04 (convenient how this is the same year they move into the new arena with new uni's. Remind anyone of the Oilers' development of Steve McNair?)
     
  11. The Cat

    The Cat Member

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    Bimathug,

    I agree that Rice fits well; as I said, I don't think he's washed up. However, Nachbar has a similarly great shot that can open up lanes for Francis and Mobley. I don't think it makes a big difference which one starts, as IMO they'll play similar minutes anyway. Personally, I am just afraid of throwing Nachbar, Griffin, and Ming on the floor at the same time. Considering their youth, they could use a veteran like Glen Rice or Cuttino Mobley (besides Rice, he's probably the best leader) on the floor with them.

    It's not too important who starts, as much as it is who finishes. If Rice has his shot back, I think he's an ideal SF for this team, and can help us a lot, especially when we need points. But, since I expect the two to play similar minutes, I think for chemistry purposes it would be better to play Rice off the bench. I don't like the idea of my second string frontcourt being a 20 year old Eddie Griffin and two rookies. They have the potential, but at times it could look bad, especially without a stabilizing force out there.
     
  12. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    The Cat--I was referring to the countless others who assume that Rice is washed up, not you. I read your post correctly. Sorry if I gave you the wrong impression.

    Also, I think if Rice truly has his game back to where it was with the Lakers (1999-2000: ~ 17 ppg - amazing considering that the first through one millionth options on offense were Shaq and Kobe), Rice will play "starter's minutes". If Rice is still hobbled or if he truly has lost a step (which in all likelihood he may have), then Nachbar will get more substantial minutes. Still, Rice is the better starter. When was the last time you saw five bench players on the court at the same time, other than garbage time? Rarely. Nachbar (or ANY Rockets bench player, for that matter) will play the vast majority of his meaningful minutes with either Steve or Cuttino on the floor.
     
  13. Live

    Live Member

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    Yao - 12 ppg, 10 rpg, 3 blks, 3 assts

    Nachbar - 11 ppg, 5 rpg, 3 assts, 1 spg

    Prediction: I wouldn't be surprised if a) Nachbar starts over Rice especially if Rice isn't ready to go at the beginning of the season, and b) Rice gets traded before or during the season.
     
  14. Yetti

    Yetti Member

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    Francis 15pts 10 asts 3rbs 3 stls
    Mobley 15 5
    YAO 15 3 8 1 2.75bl
    NACHBAR 12 3 4 1
    CATo 4 3 7 1.75
    I included team members who are going to change their game!
    2002/2003 Season
     

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