Was Battier really a moneyball decision or is he more of an obvious choice (ie, PF that plays defense, shotblocker, perimeter defense) for what the Rockets lacked last season? It's not like Battier's skill set isn't regarded or that he's on an under the MLE type contract. Even with Novak, the Rockets needed more shooting, so they drafted a recognised shooter. Again, hardly moneyball at work? So maybe we haven't seen the first moneyball Rocket? On another note, does anyone know if sports analysis systems like Prozone are used in the NBA? http://www.prozoneholdings.com/
I'm not exactly sure what Prozone is. I believe MySynergySports.com tools are used by NBA teams. Check out theri website for more details.
The idea behind moneyball in baseball is traditional stats and analysis of the game is flawed and overly subjective. It stresses looking at the player performance in a more objective manner, with the use of more comprehensive metrics. And then making personnel decisions based on this data. Applying this to basketball may not be as simple, because performance in basketball is much harder to quantify than it is in baseball. Still, the idea is that the team would be much better served to rely on more objective performance metrics and making personnel decision accordingly, rather than the traditional ways of evaluating player talent/potential. Just as moneyball in baseball relies on the new statistical methods from the "sabermetrics" community, when applied in basketball the methods from the analogous "apbrmetrics" community would probably be more heavily relied on. In particular, the notion of per-possession statistics for measuring team and player performance is key, as well as stuff like +/- statistics for better understanding a player's impact/value to a team. But it's important to be aware of the limitations of such measurements, because it really is more more complex to capture a player's true value in a quantitative manner in basketball than in baseball.
I don't think it matters. I think the Battier trade was a good one for the Rockets, and I'm happy to have him and be done with Swift.
I seem to remember a part of the idea of Billy Beane's "moneyball" idea was to figure out which statisitcs are more relevant to team success than others and, by doing so, make wise decisions about how to spend your limited resources. For example, one thing they figured out was the "saves" for a reliever was a stat that's highly valued among teams, but not worth a whole lot in real life, so they'd always trade away their "closer" (and all those "Saves") for good value and just promote another reliever (who makes a much lower salary) for that job just as effectively. Whether the decision was made on this basis or not, the Battier trade is a great from the point of view of moneyball. Battier makes a low salary for his effectiveness, is highly efficient on the court (his +/- numbers are that of a star player, his True shooting % is high, he does not turn the ball over, he takes a ton of charges), and is undervalued because he racks up the hustle stats (charges taken, low TO) rather than the glamor stats (points). Loot at it this way, his +/- number (on teams with other talented wings-- Bonzi, Posey, Eddie Jones, Mike Miller) were +10.6 and +11.6 over the last two seasons. Other players with comparable +/- stats (and many with inferior +/- numbers), excluding those still on rookie deals, are pulling in $10-15+ mil a year. Battier makes 5 to 7 mil a year for the rest of his long term contract. (on a side note.. 82games.com has a rather hokey sounding "fair salary" index based on player performance and minutes played... according to their calculations, Shane Battier's "fair salary" was $10.5 mil last year) When you have limited resources (limited by the luxury tax threshold), Battier is a great moneyball buy at $5 mil. Of course, if a careful observer watches enough Grizzlies games, he'll see Battier's heady hustle plays helping out the team. He'll likely recognize the value of Battier without looking at these "moneyball" stats at all. One could also read about Jerry West's steadfast refusal to trade Battier for years except possibly as a package to get another superstar and figure out this guy is pretty good. However, I did show some of Battier's 82games.com numbers to a long time Grizzlies fan once, and his reaction was "Yikes! I'm a biggest Battier fan out there, and even I never knew he had THIS big of an effect." The people who will undervalue Shane Battier, however, are the casual Sports Center highlight watchers and box score readers. I don't know how many times I've heard him called a "10-5" player or "just a solid role player". Based on the boxscore. (Incidentally, it annoys me to hear players constantly defined as 20-10 player, 15-7 player 12-8 player, etc.. completely meaningless definition... don't tell you much about how good a player is) On the other hand... let's look at what Rockets gave up... a ton of vertical leap and not much substance. Rudy Gay? A nice but unproven prospect-- historically only 20% of them turns into Superstars or All Stars. So, we are giving up a 20% chance the guy turns into a star... and then you have to account for the other risks like: 1. The Jermaine O'Neal/Darko Milicic risk: That he only becomes productive for his 2nd team, not yours. 2. The Zach Randolph Risk: Looks good enough by his 3rd year to lock up, signed to a huge extension, then disappears. 3. The Stevie Franchise risk: Hardly a bust, maybe even an All Star, but never quite as good as his stats indicate... you'll pay him like a Superstar, but he's just not good enough to be one. Notice how none of the above risks remotely mentions the possiblity that a pick just busts. Look, everyone got excited about this kid... but we are not talking about a "can't miss/low risk" guy like Yao and Lebron here. We are talking about the usual probabilities at play. If he were has Yao or Lebron's high probability of success, nobody would have passed him over for Randy Foye, Brandon Roy, and LaMarcus Aldrdige. Objectively, he's a 20% chance at stardom like most other lotto picks. Stromile? Great for highlight reels, but wastes his vertical leap by not being active on the court. Mediocre +/- numbers, low rebounding rate. Makes $5 mil a year, but probably derserves less. Chuck Hayes was easily better than him last season. The way I see the trade is Rudy Gay and Stro got traded in for Battier + 20 extra minutes a game to give to Chuck Hayes, Novak, or another effective player. I'll trade 80 inches of combined vertical leap and 14'6'' of combined wingspan, and 20% chance fo getting an All Star any day for hustle, bball IQ, accurate shooting, tough D, and winning basketball games.
I, like many others was outraged to hear of the Gay/Swift - Battier trade. However after many compelling posts such as yours as well as a the potental steal on Novak and possibility of resigning MJ, I am actually liking the trade and outcome more and more. On a some what random topic that has been in my mind, is what if the Trailblazers didn't get a hold of our supposed trade with Minnesota and we land Roy. I am a huuuuuggggeeeeeee Roy fan but would he have helped as much as MJ+Battier? While Roy has a long career ahead of him, lookin at the win now approach, with Swifts contract still in place, could we land another FA that could help? Anyways, my other favorite team to root for this season will be whomever faces Portland.
The Mysynergysports site seems to be on hiatus, but from what i've seen of it, it was mostly organized broadcast video? Prozone would be different in that it's a system where 8 to 12 video cameras are installed around and above the playing field. My basic understanding of it is it tracks every player, their movement, speed, positioning on the field constantly. It's used to scout indivduals in games and training as well as a tool to understand team tactics. I'd assume it has greater purpose as it costs around US1.5 million to install and around US10k to analyse each game.
Man I really like your analysis. Statistically speaking Juwan Howard is even worst than Swift. So if CD and Morey are applying the same reasoning they applied on the Battier trade i guess they have to try to do everything to get rid even of him even though I know it's not easy because of his contract and trade value. What's your thought?
All 'Moneyball' is is finding qualities in players that are undervalued byother teams, so that one might acquire valuable players possesing those qualities for less than what they should be worth. In baseball, statistical analysis is part of it, just as it should be in basketball, but it's not as black and white as some are making it out to be.
Interesting analysis of the trade in this thread, but I am still opposed. This team has serious issues with depth and we traded 2 players for one. The Rockets were the second oldest team in the league last season, IIRC, and we got older. Gay might have a low statistical chance of being a star, but Battier has 0% chance of being a star and I worry about playing him anywhere but the 3. I also worry about Tmac chasing around smaller players at the 2 guard spot or Battier being busted inside if we play him at power forward. If Battier can guard Amare, Duncan, Garnett or Dirk, then I will gladly admit how far I've jammed my foot in my mouth and this trade is not as bad as I'm thinking. (I understand no one shuts them down, but is he even an option against those guys?) Swift clearly wasn't the answer at the PF spot for this team but his fairly reasonable contract would have made him perfect as our backup C for the next few years while giving playing time to ChuckH. Deke was worse than Stromile last season, and time only goes in one direction, I think. Not too comfortable with penciling in a second round pick as a rotation player either. Say what you will about Swift but I'm sure he belongs in the NBA... Novak? A diaper clad Mutombo? The proposed trade down with the Hornets 2 picks looks like a missed opportunity in retrospect though I don't know how interested NOH was in moving up. Had we pulled that off, we had our choice of Brewer/Carney @12 and Marcus Williams @ 15. We'd then be in position to go after someone like Jefferies with the MLE instead of the 31 year old James. Dallas did ok with Devin Harris, Josh Howard etc. making signifigant contributions. I understand we're trying to win now, but that assumes Tmac/Yao stay healthy the next two seasons or so. If not, the Rockets will be uh... limited in their options 3 years from now, to put it politely.
