Can anyone please explain the sentence in bold a little bit, like approximately how it is calculated? I have an idea of how an assist affects "point produced", a website mentioned 0.5pt for an assist of a two-pointer. But I really can't think of how offensive rebounds translate to points. Doesn't it just help you gain another possession, like a steal or a defensive rebound? I'm confused.
You'll have to get a copy of Basketball on Paper (Dean Oliver). Its described in the Appendix. I don't remember the Points Produced formula off-hand, it was pretty complicated. The idea behind ORTG is that we want it to be a quantity which, when you take the average for every player on a team and weight by the player's possession-usage, it come out to be the team's Offensive Rating. ORTG is defined as points produced divided by possessions. How do you produce points in basketball? Either by scoring a field goal, or getting to the line. But there are other actions that can lead to a scored field goal/free throw that we'd like to credit. If player A misses a field goal, player B gets the offensive rebound and passes it out, and then eventually player C scores, how should we divvy up the credit for points produced? Well, the team likely would not have gotten the score if player B didn't get that board, right? Because, generally about 70% of missed field goals are rebounded by the defensive team. So player B gets a portion of the credit for the points produced (maybe a small portion, I don't remember how ORTG weighs it). At the same time, player B's offensive rebound does not count against him as a used-up possession. That action is continuing a possession rather than consuming a possession -- possession consumption occurs on shot attempts or turnovers.
Thanks for the reply. Much appreciated. But doesn't a steal also count as a possession rather than consuming a possession? Yet it receives no credit in point scored?
According to the ORTG/DRTG system, a steal is a defensive action that terminates the opposing team's possession early. Defensive credit is given to a steal. An offensive rebound continues an offensive possession, creating an extra opportunity to score on the possession. That's why it gets offensive credit. A steal isn't really creating an extra scoring opportunity in that sense -- the team gets the ball back whether its off the opponent's turnover, miss, or score. You could argue that it may create a better scoring opportunity, but this isn't accounted for in ORTG.
OK. Thanks for the explanation. I'll look for the book in the library and get the coefficients. Thanks again.
