Why did we sign feldman. That was a terrible move from the start. They would have been better off bidding on cuban player.
Maybe adding Feldman's $30 million would have been enough to win the bidding? I don't think they ever released exact dollar figures.
Disagree here. Feldman's expected value at time of the deal was very close (looked like a slight over pay) to what his market value was. Yeah, it has turned out bad so far as he may have begun to regress quicker than expected, but Astros looked like they would need a guy like Feldman before the season.
I disagree with your disagreement. There was plenty of pressure from everybody (MLBPA, MLB, Fans) for the Astros to not go into the season with another bare-bones payroll. So by that logic, yes they were looking to add payroll (via a starting pitcher, or first baseman, or OF) at a certain overall price level. They definitely overpaid for somebody of Feldman's pedigree/track record because a.) pitchers are going to want more per year for "shorter" 1-3 year deals, and b.) the astros aren't going to be a desirable franchise or a player's choice if the money is "similar". I'd like to know who they were bidding against to get Feldman and what those offers were... chances are, the Astros offer was exceedingly higher than anybody else's. In the end, they chose to overpay for somebody who was more likely to be who he is now vs. somebody who exceeds expectations... but they got him only on a 3 year deal which won't cripple any long-term financial flexibility.
His fWAR the past two years were 2.3 and 2. He was projected to regress to 1.6-1.7 by the Oliver and Steamer projections this season for a value of about $10.5M. Zips had him at a lower WAR, but estimated less innings with similar performance per inning. With regression for next two years, his expected value was expected to be about $25-29M depending on how much regression one would expect. Slight over payment.
I'd still like to know who they were bidding against, and what the next highest offer was really for. Also, those projections and stats are all nice and fancy... but at the end of the day (in reality), he has regressed more than those projections... and he's even less worth it than he was at the beginning of the season. But most of the ok to good (not great) pitchers that settle for a 3 years deal are likely going to seem "overpaid". No exceptions in this case.
I'm sure Jim is glad you're concerned about his pocketbook. I'll stick by my comment, if 18 million over two years keeps us from improving the team elsewhere it's gonna be KC like round these parts
Not really concerned about his finances... but even in the Drayton days, the Astros have (and always will) operate on a budget. When Drayton seemed to open up the MLB payroll to "go for it"... he tightened costs elsewhere (namely player development, international signings, and in draft pick selections). As Crane has been declared "el-cheapo".... they've done everything "but" spend heavily at the MLB level (with no guarantees that they won't when the time comes). Its not just about total payroll, but its about having flexibility to improve your team if they're not cutting it. You said it yourself... why is Fowler playing CF right now? (because he makes more $ than Marisnick, and will get his preference). You get diminishing returns on any pitcher who signs more than a 3 year deal... you get diminishing returns on any hitter who signs his "first" big deal after his arbitration years are done (yet you still have to pay and play him as he's slowly passing his prime and getting out of shape). One huge advantage of having young guys, and vets on short-term deals, is that you can scrap the whole thing and start over... or jettison parts of surplus for areas of need. Even the Cosart deal (which I wasn't a fan of) was ultimately accepted far easier than if he'd been around as long as Roy or Nolan was. Again, the payroll will naturally rise... and they'll likely add some needed pieces here/there via free agency... but I hope they don't cut other "good" parts of this organization to pay for those.
In reality, you can only make a decision based on information on hand. The Astros made a decision on expected value. It has backfired so far. Unbiased projections show that Feldman's contract was reasonable at the time even if data today shows they were wrong. Bashing the Astros for making a mistake in evaluation is one thing. You do it all the time. Bashing the Astros for trying to make their payroll respectable is an outright lie and completely biased. The Astros do not care about being respectable. Mistakes happen...Astros spending money to try to appear respectable doesn't. You may have not gotten the memo, but the Astros want to win a championship. They may not know how to do it and may make mistake after mistake. The Astros empathy for fans/MLB/media stops at any move that does not fit what they think is best to get them to win the World Series. The Astros expect fans that only care about winning now will forgive them once they are winning because, by then, then will be now. When will then be now? Soon. And by soon, I mean geologically.
