So, its not their fault that they're reporting every possible weather event with dooms-day like fervor? I know weather events = ratings, so they try and build up every possible event as much as possible... but at some point, they need to simply report the facts/possibilities in a responsible (but not overzealous) manner, and then maybe the people won't be so jaded at every possible mass-flood that doesn't occur.
In my personal opinion, the forecasters rely to much on model output rather than actually using historical comparisons (analogs), current observations and forecasting skills. Models aren't perfect. In fact, they are far from perfect. They should be used as part of the forecasting equation. Not the entire equation. Models just use calculations and random atmospheric situations to determine possible outputs. Which is why every model run is different. Meteorologist should be using the current conditions, sending weather balloons up to get all the data and determining their own forecast. These aren't perfect either. However, this cost money and it isn't like places like NOAA, and other companies, are getting the funding they should be getting.. It is near impossible to perfect it, but if you do it long enough, you will be right more times than you are wrong. Everything has to line up perfectly for a major flood event. This particular system arrived a lot later than the models predicted. Therefore the weather guys look like they have no idea what they are talking about. If there is any flooding around Houston today, they won't look as bad. The models are mostly useless now, it is just a wait and see game.. Radar and Satellite trends are all there is to go by now.
Yes, I get all that. Nobody is asking them to be perfect... But people don't need the scare tactics (done primarily for ratings) when there is such a large margin for error. Screaming "fire" in a crowded theater (when somebody has a cigarette lighter) is almost just as problematic as if there was a fire.
Heard on the noon newscast that places around the area received as much as 3 inches in about 45 minutes today. Sounds like Brookshire and spots north of town in Montgomery County got hit pretty hard. Honestly, even the reasonable guys were talking this one up. Eric Berger was talking about the potential for 10 inches of rain in spots...and he's not an alarmist. It's an imperfect science. They alert you to possibilities and try to prepare you for the worst.
I am on the same page buddy. It is annoying and it often makes people change plans and etc. Nothing worse than having something planned, and the weather guys are talking about a flood happening, and the sun is out. They haven't been completely wrong though. There are places within our county watch area that have seen some pretty significant rainfall totals during this event. The margin of error isn't so much as if it will rain a lot, it is what areas get the heavy rain. Two counties over can see 12" of rain while other areas get a light sprinkle and a few claps of thunder.
http://hydromet.lcra.org/full.aspx Between 2 and 5 inches of rain in my neighborhood, we sure needed it. Everything is greening up, bluebonnets and other wildflowers are coming on strong. Going canoe fishing this weekend, I may get swept down to Lake Buchannan, who knows?
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Let's see if they get it right this time. LOL! Flood watches issued for all of the county watch area.
