Whatever MadMax. I just think the media scared the hell out of everyone for no reason. If you are mandatory evacuation, fine. But by the time the forecasters thought the eye would hit Beaumont it was obvious Houston was not going to get the worst of the damage. The hardest hurricane winds only hit 60 miles out from the eye, and Beaumont is more than 60 miles east of Houston.
A mass evacuation did not cause the deaths, they died because they were on a bus that malfunctioned for whatever reason. That bus could have caught on fire anywhere, it just so happened that it did it during evacuation.
I agree on the "3rd strongest hurricane EVER" stuff. It made nice headlines but they should have mentioned that it was likely to weaken. But nobody really new where it was going. It could have been a direct hit on Houston and caused tons of damage.
But what if everyone had waited and the hurricane didn't turn? You think Thursday in Houston was bad? Imagine it 12 hours before a cat 4 or 5 does hit. The Real Shady, The bus accident was not a direct result of the evacuation. The deaths cited from Alison and Alisha were caused directly because of the hurricane.
You still don't get that no one knew it was going to hit Beaumont for sure. Even Friday they weren't sure exactly which way it would turn. You saying people shouldn't be scared of a CAT 3 or 4 hurricane, that's a joke. Either could be deadly.
I think that headline was the dagger that sent people over the edge. True, it was the 3rd strongest hurricane EVER. But at the same time, it was very likely to weaken by time of landfall.
From the diagrams, it looked like the eye was going to way east of Houston, somewhere closer to the border than Houston. I told my father on Thursday that Houston would be fine. I'm not saying I knew for sure, but by Thursday I estimated by looking at the graphs and knowing about the hurricane cycle that Houston would dodge a bullet. Essentially, the strongest winds were 60 miles from the eye, so Houston would be hit with winds, but nothing catastrophic. Either you are right or wrong in life, and I guess this time I was lucky and right. My house is in Clear Lake and absolutely nothing happened.
There is no way the evacuation can be completely excluded from the cause of the bus fire and the deaths of nearly two dozen senior citizens. The driver could have easily pull over the bus off the interstate had there not been massive congestion due to evacuation. The bus could have undergone proper mechanical inspections had it not been forced to operate in compliance with mandatory evacuation. The bus might still have caught fire irrespective of the circumstances due to the evacuation, but it may not have anyone on it other than the driver, hence nobody would have died.
slick -- hurricanes are largely unpredictable. if you're trying to sell the idea that you and your professor had it all figured out while the rest of us were left in the dark, i'm not buying. sorry. hurricanes are influenced by tons of factors...both in where they're going and in their strength. on friday morning the strike probabilities between beaumont and houston were separated by about a 2% difference. hell, the difference between a beaumont and a new orleans strike were separated by only about 12%. a 60 mile jog east or west happens quickly with hurricanes. it's very slight changes in trajectory. and by the way...by friday, the evacuations had stopped, for the most part. on friday, bill white said the time for evacuation had come and gone. most left wednesday night or thursday. when i left on wednesday, the track was actually to matagorda bay, to the west of us. that didn't change until late friday. though i'm certain your professor knew on monday...the rest of us weren't so certain...including the national weather service. in all seriousness..how many times have you been through this drill? how long have you lived in houston? how many hurricanes have you been through?
See, I'm not arguing that the media doesn't suck. A vast majority of it does. I'm not arguing that there aren't a lot of ignorant/gullable people out there. There are. But the media wasn't bad because they were reporting Houston was in danger of being hit by a big hurricane. It was, even Friday. Even the stations that were harping on doom and gloom doesn't change that. People who left didn't leave just because they were ignorant/gullable and the media told them to leave. They left because there was a legitimate threat out there, even if it didn't pan out that way. A lot of people were influenced by the NO tragedy. How could they not be? They just witnessed the kind of affects a hurricane can have on a city.
Completely excluded? No. But you can't say the evacuation CAUSED their deaths. The driver could have stopped regardless whether or not there was massive congestion. For all we know the bus already underwent proper inspections. Even if it hadn't it could have still been in use under the same condition it was in. Maybe, maybe not. It might not have ever caught fire. It still doesn't mean that the evacuation caused their death. They died during evacuation. The defective bus caused their deaths.
The people living in SE Houston were completely right to evacuate, but the people living in the inland areas who evacuated (including the nursing home bus) were scared by the media hype and misdirection by our local government. The city should have made clear evacuation plans like they have for the return home and the voluntary evacuation order for inland areas should not have been given so soon, if at all. The media should have focused on reporting the news instead of trying to scare people. It's obvious now that the biggest tragedy throughout this whole ordeal is the mess that the evacuation caused. Schools and businesses have had to close for longer than needed periods, large amounts of gas and other resources were wasted, and mass amounts of people were stranded and needed aid. Overall, it turned out to be a big waste that was more trouble than it was worth. I don't blame people for leaving, most of them didn't know any better and many had small children to protect, but you can't deny the fact that many were misled.
Of course, had people not been urged to evacuate and a cat 4 hurricane hit Houston cuasing massive destruction and significant casualties, you'd probably be arguing that the media should've urged voluntary evacuations. No one was misled. There was a good chance that the storm was going to hit Houston. The nature of hurricanes is that they are somewhat unpredictable. Unfortunately, you cannot wait until you know for sure a hurricane is going to hit before you urge people to evacuate.
I just didn't like the fact that the media put the public into a state of frenzy and panic. They made it seem like Armageddon. It's good to always stay positive, I think.
In addition, people should have realized that New Orleans and Houston are two very different cities. New Orleans was under sea level to being with. Once their system of flood prevention barriers broke down, it was over. I watched NOVA a few years back and it had a simulation of what would happen to New Orleans if it got hit by a major hurricane. It was only a matter of time I guess. But Houston is not under sea level and would not flood like a fish bowl. The media should have pointed out the difference between the two cities, to give the public a better idea of what to expect, instead of just showing pictures of Katrina and scaring people.
The hurricane is what put people into a panic. Katrina and the media did not help to assuage their fears, but they weren't supposed to. imo, the when it comes to bad news, what I want from the media is 1. worst likely scenario(so I can prepare for the worst) 2. most likely scenario(so I can temper my expectations) 3. best likely scenario(for what I can hope for) Key word is "likely" Now 3, everbody likely already knows. 2, hard to speculate on with something so unpredictable as weather until it's already or nearly in progress. That leaves one for the most part. But I can do without the theatrics. And pretty much everyone knows how different NO and Houston are. No one was expecting Houston to be under 20 feet of water for an extended period fo time.
Hmm. slickvik69, I've been arguing your point as hard as anyone. In fact, I'm almost sick of the discussion now. But even I would have evacuated Clear Lake (at least to a further inland point in the Houston area). Still, you looked at facts and made an informed decision. You looked beyond the hype and scare tactics and focused on data, charts and probabilities.
My family evacuated, it was mandatory, but only to the other side of Houston, Jersey Village. I was just saying that nothing happened to my home in Clear Lake. Thanks, I guess I'm not the norm. Not everyone thinks for themselves these days...
