My prediction is Obama by 5-6%. And I think that would translate to about 375 EV's which I predicted in the other thread. If the race is closer than it is now and winds up at 3% or less I think the EV count will be tighter too (though still an Obama win - I can't imagine any scenario where that doesn't happen). If he winds up with, say, an 8-10% popular vote victory I think that not only WV and GA are in play but that there could even be a surprise in LA or MS or MT, ND, SD or SC. If Obama pulls better than 10% nationally (and I don't think he will), then you have to even consider states like TX and AZ in play. I predicted a landslide long ago though (and was ridiculed for it). Anything over 350 EV's and anything over 5% definitely qualifies as a landslide, especially given our last two presidential elections.
Kudos, IROC it. I love a true believer. Especially an insane one. And that prediction is truly insane.
Another way to put this is black is white, up is down. I admire the way you are laying the groundwork for declaring victory after a clear and decisive loss.
No... it's just happened in every other race this season... the primaries did an unexpected reverse in both parties as well. We'll see. It's just a hunch.
I said it was overconfident to predict an Obama landslide back in July and stand by that. If it weren't for the economic meltdown and the McCain's campaign disintegration, Obama would have zero chance of winning by a landslide. These two completely unpredictable events have basically thrown this election. If there had been 3-4 major terrorist bombings worldwide in September instead of the economic mess, McCain would probably be up in the polls by 5-6%. So you don't get any pat on the back from me with your early prediction because it took a completely unforeseen event blowing up to make it happen. Don't misunderstand me: I now support Obama over McCain. But Obama has had a charmed life since early September because events have played right to McCain's (and the GOP's) achilles heel.
It's too close to be a landslide. The polls seem to skew towards Democracts. Kerry is a good example. If there are extremist muslims that want to create more instability and more war, they can put together a bomb and drive into a school. Then, they can can guarantee McCain wins.
Obama by 1-3%, but in the electoral college, it will be more of a landslide, with Obama winning +/- 325 electoral votes. He will win a couple of big states that went for Bush in 2000 and 2004.
Ill vote on Nov 3rd... but right now I am guessing about a 4-6% obama win which will look much more lopsided in the EC Nothing short of a major terrorist attack can win McCain the election now.. And using bigtexxx and TJ's logic over the past 8 years... this directly means that republicans, conservatives, and John McCain want America to be hit by a terrorist attack. My reasoning is flawless, bow down to me.
Gawd, it's hilarious that Batman continues to post predictions based on his assessment of polls. I mean, seriously, how many times can he disgrace himself on a single topic? Talk about just horrible instincts...
McCain is bringing the pain in Michigan, I heard from this extremely RELIABLE source on this very board.
Barack's lead is pretty close to insurmountable. Any notion of the "bigot" vote at the booth immediately gets tossed out by the fact Democrats have been registering people in record numbers this year at a rate of 4:1. If Barack wasn't on this ticket, I myself probably wouldn't have been as adamant about voting as I am. The wheels are off the straight talk express and it's been put on eBay.
