If they did this, fans would moan two years from now, when the team is youthfully inconsistent, that what the team really needs is a veteran presence, like having Berkman and Oswalt around. Getting almost ready prospects for our veterans is a real crap shot. Getting a Bagwell from that type of trade is the exception that makes the rule. Unless Berkman and Oswalt demand a trade, I don't see them going anywhere.
I understand there is nothing behind him, but first base is probably the easiest position to fill through the draft or free agency if needed (cheaper than 15M per). He also seems like he's the one thing that keeps this team mediocre and not a bad team every year. So in a way, its counterproductive keeping him. We need a Morey-like gm that's not afraid to sell high on our players, regardless of their tenure here. That's how you reap maximum rewards in baseball, trading a player who is good now for one or two thats going to be good in the future when your team is actually good.
This was a comment made a few days ago on Chip Bailey's Chron blog: "Check out ESPN's computer sims of the season - our boys the worst in all of baseball - a whopping 64 win average and the best season was 79. On average the Astros were 10 games worse than the Pirates. Every single team made the playoffs at least once in those 1000 sims -except the Astros." I believe that the simulations are generated by the Baseball Think Factory and that they use some hardcore Daryl Morey type methodologies. I don't get ESPN Insider so I didn't actually see the results. Regardless, we're projected to have the worst major league team this season to go along with our league worst farm system. It's going to be a loooooooooooooooong painful rebuilding process. It could be years and years before this team even threatens for a playoff spot.
Its much easier to get a veteran presence (via trade or free agency) than it is to get good, young players right now.
Neither Berkman or Oswalt is under contract two years from now. If the Astros really wanted them back, they could always sign them as free agents anyway.
The last I heard was that even after 2 decent drafts, we are still ranked at the bottom. You have to remember that those drafts were only good by our standards. Just about every other team has still been drafting better than us and spending more than us in the draft. I believe that we were still in the bottom 5-6 spenders in the draft over the last couple of seasons despite the improved volume of signed players. Sure, it's a crap shoot when it comes to the draft but for a team that neglected it's farm system for so long, you would think that they should go the extra mile while trying to make up for past failures.
Yep agree, this upcoming draft will be HUGE for this franchise having 5 picks in the 1st three rounds. Trading Puma, Roy, Feliz, Myers and Wandy all by the deadline would help the farmsystem a GREAT deal along with a great draft. We could be good again by 2012 if we start now and we will be fun to watch as early as next year. Now one thing Drayton isn't is cheap so you add a decent payroll with strong prospects and there you go.
Simply put, the present ain't lookin' good and the future don't look much better. This season is largely about Brad Mills getting some experience under his belt, whether or not it's for this team in the long run. By the time this team is good again, there may not be a single present player still on the roster. Seriously.
BAH!!! Come on, Astros fans! We survived the 70s and 80s for cryin' out loud! I'm telling you, having lived and died (OK mostly *died*) Astros baseball for three decades, 2004 and 2005 were fun!! They suck! We're not sure we buy into what management is doing! We're not sure about McLane's competence anymore or if he's going to sell! OK, I'll *grant* you all of those... ...BUT: this is nothing compared to Ford Motor Credit days! Or Spec Richardson's tenure, which made Timmy P look like Hunsicker or better! I'm predicting between 75 and 80 wins this year, and that may be a little too optimistic. But I'm not predicting I'll love losing 85 games or so... ...but these things are cyclical. Stick around, and the next run will be worth it. GO ASTROS!!!!!
All I'm saying is, what's the point of keeping this team together if your ceiling is 80 wins? Lee, Berkman, Wandy and Oswalt aren't going to get any better. If anything the Marlins have proven that the cycle of the team is better if the lows are lower and you make smart decisions when your team is bad. One more thing I'd like to say about the Astros is I hope we get some damn left handed batters on this team. I'm tired of these righty heavy lineups. A good strategy would be to start stockpiling left handed outfielders in the draft like Colorado has been doing. Its turned out great for them (Smith, Gonzalez, Hawpe, Fowler(s)). It lets them have one of those guys be able to slide into first base when Helton calls it quits.
The Astros' system was woefully thin before Bobby Heck took over two seasons ago. Being cheap and drafting for signability has not been kind to the system. The last two drafts have helped the Astros tremendously. Almost the entire top ten prospects in the organization are from the 2008 and 2009 drafts and considering that the majority of those players are in the lower levels of the minors, BA and ESPN aren't going to give the Astros alot of credit. IMO the Astros will be ranked in the middle of the pack as far as organizational rankings next year as the last couple of draftees begin to ascend through the minors. The previous poster who stated that this upcoming draft is huge is dead on. This next draft could dictate how fast the Astros become relevant again. With five picks in the top 100, the Astros have a chance to draft some major talent that could promote quickly and be in the majors by 2013. Add that to the youngsters coming up now and it could be exciting the next few seasons. The biggest detriment to this is the same as the solution --- Drayton McLane. McLane needs to tell Selig to mind his business and let Wade and Heck sign a couple of players over slot. All is not lost, the Astros have been horrid in the past, its a rebuilding year, but it'll get better.
I highly doubt that the last two drafts will take us from dead last to middle of the pack in terms of organizational rankings. You, yourself, pointed out that we were in the bottom tier of spenders in the last draft and that we almost always go after signable players and stick to slot because of Drayton trying to either follow the rules or pinch pennies. You point out the biggest detriment being McLane's unwillingness to go over slot and what he needs to do instead but you know that it's highly unlikely that he'll do that based on his history. The majority of other teams still spent more resources on the last two drafts than the Astros. Those drafts were only good by "Astro standards." For a team that neglected player development and the farm system for so long, they really need to be near the top, both in terms of volume of picks and spending to just hope to make up ground. That has not been the case. My guess is that we'll still be right near the bottom, if not at the bottom, when they release the next organizational rankings. I don't think that we will ever become a great farm system as long as McLane is in charge. He lacks the inherent patience and philosophy to accomplish that task. He's done great things for the big league club but building a sustainable farm system is not one of his strengths and every team not named the Yankees or Red Sox absolutely needs to place a ton of importance in that area. Based on recent rumors, my guess is that McLane won't even own the team within the next 5 years, especially as he watches this team melt down at the major league level and continues hearing about how he mismanaged the farm. If he still happens to be here, the best hope is that we continue to follow Selig's "rules" and hope that we strike it rich on largely reaches and "signable" players. One way or the other, this organization needs to get back to its roots and consistently place top priority on scouting, drafting, signing and developing players in order to maintain a healthy farm system and pipeline of talent feeding into the major league team. That way, one day they can actually use free agency to legitimately fill holes instead of consistently having too many holes to fill because of the lack of sufficient cheap, young talent on the roster (Bourn and Pence types or better). I really think that we are more than a few years away from coming close to cleaning up this mess unless we have extremely good fortune with some of our picks. We've gotten to a point where the big club is probably as bad as the farm (maybe worse since we've at least been active in recent drafts), so both the present and future aren't looking good for this organization. As you know, every bad draft sets the club back mutliple years and the last two drafts were probably mediocre at best compared to the rest of the league (you can't just compare them to our own failed drafts of the past). I think it will take at least 5 years (maybe longer, depending on McLane's philosophy or the next owner's philosophy) to rebuild the farm system and I don't see enough talent on, or near making, the big league club for us to be anything resembling a contender in the interim.
While I somewhat agree with you on some of your points, I also think you are being a bit harsh on the direction Heck and Wade are taking the club. We are still at the bottom of most farm rankings but not because of who we might have picked this last two drafts. I constantly read praise over the selections they've made like Castro, Meir and Lyles but with the exception of Castro everyone was, at that time, still at A or barely making AA so it is to soon for anyone to know either way thus the low ranking. I will agree that due to McLane's lack of willingness to go against Selig it has cost the team dearly and seeing Smoak blow up with the Rangers is another recent example. I hope with the chance to make MAJOR strides this season he would be willing to spend a bit over slot with the 8th choice and expect him to do so with the 19th selection. The last two drafts were good, not just for Stros standards but overall, the problem is that they weren't special which is what would have taken to see a major jump in the rankings. That's still cool, if they get good solid players that will eventually help the team then they have come out winners. As long as we don't go back to the Timmy P. days we should be fine. When the new rankings come out they will probably be bottom 3rd but not last anymore. They will now have guys like Lyles, Lo, Seaton at AA and Castro at AAA which should start to catch the eye of writers along with Meir getting more run as a good shortstop prospect. If we stick at our pace by 2013-2014 we should be seeing serious results but if they have a SPECIAL draft this season and trade guys like Puma, Roy and Wandy for some serious talent they should start to see a MAJOR turn in their farm system and maybe by 2012 we could see winning ball again. Uncle D seems to have gotten the importance of a great farm system and international expansion so while his big league goals maybe skewed, he is doing a much better job with his farm system.
I'm not sure how many times it needs to be said but Berkman, Lee, and Oswalt ALL have no trade clauses in their contracts. The only one who has expressed any possible interest in being moved is Oswalt and his value isn't near what it was just two years ago. Berkman isn't going anywhere until we (hopefully) buyout Lance for his $2MM and decline the club option. Lee's NTC is waived after this season or next but we'd have to eat probably HALF of that $18.5MM(?) salary and he'll really only pass as a DH. Good luck with that, Wade.
No beef with that. But do keep in mind that with the no-trade clauses and the depreciated value of aging, injured stars, these trades are much easier to propose on an Internet BBS than they are to negotiate in real life.
I think they might be more willing to waive their NTC's as the deadline approaches if the team is in the crapper. Lance isn't used to losing at any level. If this is a .400 (or worse) team come July, I think they might be open to it
I don't. Nothing they have said or done leads me to believe that. Lance makes his home in Houston full time and has strong ties to his church and so on. Carlos Lee has a HUGE ranch here in TX and has said he has absolutely no desire to leave. I don't think either one of them minds losing THAT much really. You'll still see Berkman chatting and yucking it up with every hitter that makes it to first base...no matter how badly we're getting beat. As for Carlos, he'll be out there loafing it win or lose.
Seriously. The Astros built it once; they will build it again. While I'm cool with honest appraisals of where they are right now (they suck), these permanently defeatest statements are just silly. Why torture oneself even more than the Astros' current state already provides for? There are reasons to hold a bit of optimism for the intermediate (not immediate) future. And, bashing McLane is so late 90s.
