It's because I have full confidence Taveras will regress to the mean by the end of the season. Also, it's easier to find a corner OF who can rake than a 3B.
yeah, i mean - easier said than done; though i obviously agree you in a general, intellectual sense. but as is, we need a corner OF and a 3b.
Granted, going back to when he was first called up, Sampson has only played basically a full season's worth of games. But in that time span he's been pretty damn consistent and there was a time before he hit a little rough patch the past 3 or 4 games where he was the best pitcher on this staff this season. Is he number 1 or number 2 material...well no not realistically. But is it concievable to think of him as a number 3 or 4, I think so. Backe had been a little inconsistent before his injury and during the regular season, but he's one of those pitchers that seems to play infinitely better given the importance of the game...if you wanna consider him a 4 or 5 right now until he proves himself again after rehabbing, so be it; but before his injury he was a number 3 or 4 (depending on when Roger returned to the team). This team had been blessed with three guys at the top of the rotation that could all be number ones on other teams, with the way they performed (except for Pettite's first half numbers)...as it is now this rotation isn't horrible or even below average, provided you take Woody's numbers out of the equation. I'd be fairly confident heading into next year with Oswalt, a proven number 2, Sampson, and some combination of Backe, Wandy, Patton, Albers maybe. Now if they went out and got a number 2 and 3 via FA, then went with Sampson and Backe/Patton/Wandy I'd be fine with that too. I think honestly, outside of signing a number 2 in the offseason, I'd look at shoreing up the bullpen. Hell at this point, I'd look to trade Jennings (obviously since he's not signed and you can still bring him back) and Wandy (while his stock has risen) for a capable 3b or catcher. Burke hasn't even been given a fighting chance to prove himself, and Scott hasn't been given too many chances himself, yet. But Lane probably should have never been given a spot this season and Ensberg was given too much slack last season during his slump. Thankfully, those problems have and are being addressed...but I'd rather it be done in a more timely manner. I don't think it should take an organization 3 years to finally come to the conclusion that certain players aren't gonna cut it or a whole half-season to realize it's more than a little slump...not if you want to continually stay in contention. And I really don't get where all this hate is coming from on Pence's defense; sure the guy's got a funky deliver on his throw; but from what I've seen he's got a strong arm, just not a consistently accurate one. And his range seems to be quite good too. This issue is getting as much face time as the Everett/Ausmus debates before it...and I just don't get it because it seems more of a non-issue than the other ones were.
It is a non-issue... especially when compared to some of the other major issues on this club (which include such "gems" as Oswalt's career worst season, Berkman being completely shut down by lefties this year... moreso in than in the past, and the majestic fall of once dominant bullpen pitchers). The only time I've seen/heard/read about it being brought up is within two threads on this bbs, by maybe two posters max. Unless you're replacing Pence with an absolute/bonafied lock of a gold-glove calibur defense (and I'm talking more Torii Hunter/Jim Edmonds in his prime than I am talking Carlos Beltran/Willy Taveras)... his defense is more than adequate for a team that is looking to contend, while his offense out of that position is better than most CF's in baseball.
you’d be confident handing 100 starts to those guys? and don’t forget: you’re still paying woody williams $6.25M next year. i doubt wandy nets much beyond a wandy-like prospect in return. teams will get desperate as the deadline approaches, but i’m starting to wonder if Jennings has any juice. he’s been hurt, terribly ineffective otherwise and is a free agent after this year. i would certainly prefer something to nothing, but would have to think about which “something” i’d prefer – a mid-level, at best, prospect or a draft pick. burke, imo, should have been dealt 0.0 seconds after they extended biggio. they could have turned him into a burke-like prospect, but at another position. scott falls into the generic corner outfielder the astros seem to covet and stockpile. the guy will be 30 next year and we’re still trying to guess whether he has it? you also have to factor in scott’s defense, which is below average, but almost always universally forgotten or ignored (see nick's latest post). i'm still at a loss how replacing scott with a lead-off hitter who's also a superior defensive outfielder doesn't make this a better team.
He was discussing CF defense. He listed a bunch of issues which all have a more significant impact on the Astros' current malaise than Luke Scott's below-average defense in RF. Well it does, unless you don't have a starting rotation. The trade backfired (so far) because Jennings hasn't lived up to his career numbers due to injury. If he's eating innings like usual, the bullpen is in better shape, and the Astros may look a little better--but not much, due again to the things Nick lists above. In fact, for "fun", I'll list as many issues as I can think of that the Astros have faced, and you guys fill in what I leave out and rank them in terms of negative impact.<bl><li>Outfield defense - corners</li> <li>Outfield defense - center</li> <li>Starting pitching - Roy</li> <li>Starting pitching - Jennings</li> <li>Starting pitching - 3-5</li> <li>Bullpen - closer</li> <li>Bullpen - setup guys</li> <li>Bullpen - fodder</li> <li>Infield defense - corners</li> <li>Infield defense - 2b & SS</li> <li>Offense: AE & Ausmus</li> <li>Offense: Berkman's 2-month slump</li> <li>Offense: Biggio leading off</li> </bl>
but no one, self included, is arguing scott's defense is at the top of our most pressing problems. but does that mean we shouldn't address it? taveras is a better defensive CF than pence; pence is a better defensive RF than scott. with pence being constant and taveras being better at what he does offensively than scott... it makes the team better. and in ways, it DOES address other problems (if you don't think a better outfield defense would have an impact on our pitching, ask if any of our pitchers miss AE): it changes the dynamic of the offense, too. i mean taveras' OB% is 70 points higher than biggio's.
Nobody ever said Pence was better than Willy T defensively. The argument is that Pence apparently has no business being an everyday CF due to his overly exaggerated "weak" arm... the reality is that he's not going to lose games for the Astros out there (just like Willy didn't necessarily win games for us just because of his now above average defense). All of this bickering would be worth the time if: a.) the team was clearly losing because of outfield defense (which its not... they miss Everett much much more, espcially given that Oswalt, Jennings, AND Sampson are all groundball pitchers). and b.) the team was losing because of anemic offense... which they're not (Scott struggling leads to more Lance in RF which allows more Lamb/Loretta at first/3rd, which helps shore up the defense with Bruntlett at SS). They're losing mainly because of starting pitching, secondarily because the guys they're paying over $14 million a season aren't playing like they're worth it (with the slight exception of Lee), and thirdly because of what the stalwarts in the bullpen have been reduced to. They attempted to address the first point with the trade, they couldn't have prepared for Berkman/Oswalt to drop off as significantly in just one year, and the Lidge/Qualls/Wheeler disaster just has no words to even come close to explaining.
I don't know about this - I think Jennings was oversold. As of right now, Jennings ERA, WHIP, and strikeout rate this year are all noticably better than his career averages. Before last year, his three previous years all had ERAs over 5 and a WHIP averaging about 1.65, which is beyond horrendous. Granded, his numbers were at Coors, but his numbers this year are better than his career road numbers too. Jennings last year was a very different pitcher than any of his previous years. Basically, we bought high (and sold low).
nobody ever said that, either, nick. there is no ONE REASON for the astros' fall, but to continually dismiss how poor our defense is, especially in the OF, is silly. this is a very bad defensive team. now, nick, yes - but throughout april and may, it was very much because the offense was anemic. that's why the called pence up, remember? they're losing because they're not a very good team in any paticular aspect of the game. at various points this year, the offense, defense, starting pitching and/or bullpen have been responsible for their demise.
Agreed. And I agree it's silly to ignore defense anywhere, outfield included. But Hunter Pence is good defensively and will only improve; his arm in CF and the handful of extra bases is the least of our worries *defensively*, much less for the team as a whole. In fact, as Pence's arm is so bad and his range so good, while Willy's arm is so good, were Willy still here I'd *still* play Pence in CF and put that good arm of Willy's in right.
then you would be making a giant mistake. you win with strong defense up the middle - why would you move one of the league's better defensive CFs to RF...? pence is not (right now) a very good defensive CF. his speed covers up a lot of the mistakes he makes and there's no covering up his arm.
How have you guys seen enough of Taveras this season to know? I think I've seen the Rockies play maybe 4-5 times this season. They're not exactly an ESPN favorite.
to know what? his statistics? he was already a great defender here - i'm assuming he hasn't lost that skill overnight.
He was an improving defender here, finally becoming confident enough/above average last season. He didn't come to the Astros like that. Pence can, and will, improve as well... and once again, if his arm is so weak (as you've said), why would you want him in RF? He at least covers the spacious CF well enough, and much like Willy had to do (using speed to overcome mediocre route running), he will get better at that. And, no matter how you dissect it.... analyzing, to death, the perils of outfield defense on this team as a major issue (not just on this team, but on ANY team) is a waste of time.
because, nick (and msn) - RF measures 326'; CF 436'. since you don't have vlad guerrero on your payroll, your RF'er's main responsibility is to hit the cut-off man standing in shallow RF, not gun runners down at third base and/or home (which rarely happens, again, unless vlad guerrero is your RF'er). so he doesn't need a strong arm given the field's much shorter dimensions. meanwhile, CF in MMP, as mentioned, is more than 100 feet deeper with alley ways on both sides that are deeper than right field's greatest distance by some 40-50 feet. so why anyone would suggest putting a weaker-armed outfielder in CF so the much stronger-armed outfielder can patrol much less real estate in RF is, pardon my bluntness, ridiculous.
2008 Stros: Carlos 1B, Berkman RF, New Guy CF, Pence LF. Doooo eeeet. Nick: there's nothing ridiculous about being concerned with the OF. It's one of several issues they need to address to become a good team again. And "on ANY team"? Come'on.
i very nearly posted this suggestion somewhere else, and then deleted it because i had no idea how viable it was - can lee pick at the 3? i don't watch other teams (except those playing the astros), so i'll admit my knowledge is limited; but i'd be shocked if there was a worse defensive team in baseball.
