Because that steals 2 bullpen slots in the event that Keuchel wants some rest, LMJ only goes 5 IP / 10 K's, we go to extras, etc. I could see them working around 1 tandem combo with 4 standard starters and Devo/Feliz/Musgrove going to flex/long roles, but we've seen how only Devo really succeeds in doing that consistently.
That's basically was what I was getting at.... they were willing to deal with the high K guys because of their productivity, and the fact that K's by themselves don't cripple a team that had prodigious power on top of it. Maybe "irrelevant" wasn't the best choice of words... but it was deemed that the high K lineup was not necessarily going to hold them back from ultimate success, provided they were still hitting HR's at a record rate. Maybe "insignificant" would have been a better word choice? At one point, they did trade a high contact guy like Fowler for a guy with more power like Valbuena. They did pay a decent amount for Rasmus/Gattis. You can't tell me they weren't valuing power very heavily at one point (even if it came at the expense of contact). In the end, cutting down on the K's has gone a long way. They haven't really had to spend much more to do it either (Reddick/Aoki/McCann not that much more expensive). Sorry if I struck a nerve... your posts have come out pretty angry-sounding lately. Everything ok?
On Fowler, the Astros didn't negotiate with him in arbitration and talk to him at all according to him. As such, I don't think the Astros valued him highly at that point (his defense in CF was not great for Astros and his arbitration raise would be based on him being a CF) or it could have been bad blood with agent after the Aiken debacle. Hindsight says he was likely a lot better than Astros valued him. Astros got Valbuena for 2 years in exchange for one year of Fowler at a lot less money. Rasmus was signed for 2 million more than was saved in the Fowler trade ($8 million total). Pretty sure Astros don't get him without the Fowler trade. I'd call spending 2 million and a guy that was not wanted for 2 starters (one with an extra year of club control) to be a bargain. On Gattis, Astros didn't trade a Top 100 prospect for a guy that started for them immediately. He's been a disappointment overall, and still likely is a steal in my opinion. Basically, Gattis, Rasmus, and Valbuena were acquired for 2 million dollars, an unwanted player, and some prospects so lowly ranked that their equivalent today hardly get discussed as being used in trades. None of those guys had guaranteed money after a year. Astros did not outbid Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers for these guys. You can nitpick this trade or that trade all you want, but for less than 100 million dollars and not trading 1 Top 100 prospect prior to the season, Astros put together a playoff team. In my opinion, you don't do that without shifting through the bargain bin. If Aoki was on waiver wire in 2015, Astros would have snagged him in a heartbeat. Astros likely don't acquire Reddick in 2015 if available as money too much. Same year the Astros were getting Valbuena, and Rasmus, they were drafting Bregman and Tucker. I'd consider the second overall pick a much more valuable commodity than what was given up for those guys. Also, Astros had traded a MLB starter and a scrappy utility guy for Moran and others. Even with Moran not living up to hype (hopefully he becomes something still), he was definitely a contact guy that what the Astros gave up caused an uproar here. So while Astros were getting power with one hand for short term value when they were long shots at playoffs, it was spending more resources on the other hand picking contact for players that were more likely to be Astros when they had a better shot at the playoffs. 2015 playoffs were Astros just making best moves they could hoping to strike gold. On my anger, we have a lot of history. I take shots, whether intentional or not, at a group that I am apart or have similar views as a shot at me. I can guarantee every member of SABR community liked the 2017 roster before the season more than the 2015 roster. I can guarantee every member of SABR community if holding everything else equal, prefer cutting Ks. If anything, Astros were going against the grain of the SABR community taking risks on power guys with little contact.
But like you said, they likely undervalued Fowler's contact skill with the hope of getting more power in Valbuena. They ended up spending a lot more over the lifetime of Rasmus' 2 contracts. They chose not to re-sign/negotiate with Fowler for more money for a skill they felt could be off-set for cheaper power. They did trade decent prospects for Gattis. Chris Carter was given ample opportunity to showcase his skill. Again, you can't tell me they didn't value the potential reward power brought... and they weren't merely scraping the barrel as far as payroll goes. A lot of this is irrelevant to the team they were attempting to build in 2015 vs the team they've constructed for 2017. The team they built for 2015-2016 wasn't working... they've said as much. They haven't spent egregiously more for this year. Even the guys they've acquired for more money like Beltran haven't necessarily panned out (yet). There's been an organizational shift in thinking, and Luhnow has mentioned as much. You're still taking this far too personally. If I change SABR to Luhnow, will that make you happier?... because it was clearly part of the Astros plan to capitalize on power back then, and they've stated flat-out that they had to get a MLB team that improved the contact tool. Even then, we all here (along with members of the SABR community) were extolling the Astros capitalizing on the rare power commodity in 2015.... less HR's were being hit in baseball, and the Astros were attempting to corner that market regardless of strikeouts. I don't think you were among the critics of "they K too much! need more contact!" back then... as most pointed out the their ability to score runs/win games wasn't drastically affected after 162 (hence why I said "irrelevant"). Its a shift in mindset... something purists/traditionalists have always preached... but it is after the Astros did have tangible success with the previous mindset. Swinging harder for HR's can induce more swing/miss rates, but also induces harder-hit balls when contact is made. Runs scored can be somewhat equal. The way those runs are generated can end up in a random/boom-bust fashion, that over the course of 2015-2016 did lose them some games. Luhnow has appropriately shifted. That was my point.
I just like Fisher's power over Aoki's lack thereof and his defense. Plus keeping him up here gives him OJT at the MLB level and not a AAA.
How about that, would have never guessed the Astros hadn't had a 50 homer guy yet. Are there other franchises who don't have a 50 home run hitter? Quick check shows there are others, I guess the steroids era has warped my sense of this accomplishment.
One is an attack on SABR and people that think like SABR (i.e. me). One is not. So yes, if you had said Luhnow, I would not have taken it personally as it would not have been saying I, as a person that follows the SABR movement, had a particular view which is a gross misrepresentation of my actual view. Astros went to playoffs in 2015 with 25th highest payroll and didn't trade a significant future asset to do it. Nitpick all you want, but Luhnow got the Astros to the playoffs with a Cy Young winner, some young guys, and some power no contact guys that fit under 100 million. That's bargain bin hunting. No big free agent signings. No significant prospects traded. BTW, I forgot Fowler had as bad a K% as Valbuena so that was more fast guy with high BABIP for power.
Afraid I'm going to miss the rest of this series and the Seattle one as I'll be heading to DC on vacation. I'm going on the record now; we 2 of the next 3 against the A's and then sweep the Mariners. Locked and loaded, go Stros.
