Bonzi cannot play the 2? or the 3? I think Bonzi should start Rocket River Rafer, Bonzi, Tmac, Battier and Yao
I think it is a mistake to predict V-span will have more minutes than Head. It seems like no one expects much out of him. Thats good becuase I think all of you are going to be pleasantly suprised. Luther has been working on his game all summer. The kid has ice water in his veins and had a very solid rookie season. Yao's comments only confirm that this year Luther Head will take his game to a new level and force everyone in here to stop undervaluating him. -Book it-
C - Yao (35), Juwan (8), Deke (5) PF - Battier (30), Hayes (10), Juwan (8) SF - TMac (35), Battier (8), CJ/Novak (5) SG - Bonzi (30), Snyder (15), Head (3) PG - Skip (30), Span (15), Lucas (3) Avg Minutes per Game: Yao - 35 TMac - 35 Battier - 38 Bonzi - 30 Skip - 30 Juwan - 16 Hayes - 10 Span - 15 Deke - 5 Snyder - 15 Head - 3 Lucas - 3 CJ - 3 Novak - 3 Lampe, Azubuike, Sura, RyBo will rarely get minutes.
C - Yao (36), Deke (12) PF - Juwan (20), Battier (18), Hayes (10) SF - TMac (42), Battier (6) SG - Bonzi (30), Head (10), Snyder(4), Span(4) PG - Skip (30), Lucas (10), Head (8) Not enough minutes for all of our 2s.
Bonzi last year was a better rebounder than Howard, despite Howard being a PF and Bonzi a swingman. I think there is no question the starting line-up should be Yao-Battier-Tmac-Wells-Alston. We are much quicker, better range on the shooting, and probably at least as good as rebounding with Wells in there. Alston is in the most precarious position (see below). I think Qazi is very close. I do think his minutes for Battier and Alston are too high. I think Alston is in the fight of his life to keep 1 minutes from VSpan, JL3 and Head. If Alston doesn't shoot above 35% from 3 land, his minutes will be 24 or less per game. I see it more like this...... C - Yao (34), Juwan (9), Deke (5) PF - Battier (25), Hayes (10), Juwan (13) SF - TMac (35), Battier (8), Wells (5) SG - Bonzi (25), Snyder (x), CS (x), Head (x), Span (x) PG - Skip (24*), Span (x), Head (x), Lucas (x) x being really unknown. In total minutes I feel fairly solid about the following..... TM 35 YM 34 SB 33 BW 30 RA 24* JH 22 But I think it is wide open what happens with the rest, and they could really cut into Rafer's PT--Head, VSpan, JL3, Novak, CS Finally, Abuz is almost def off the roster unless Snyder finds himself in the doghouse quickly. CS could be too if Novak and Head come out shooting well. Personally I don't think we need any more moves at all. Howard is going to at least share the back-up C minutes with Deke--he is valuable here as well as a back-up 4. Head is nice combo prospect too and brings shooting, I look for him and VS to really press Rafer as the starting point as the season progresses. We get further size and toughness having VS or Head take over for Alston.
thing is, i don't see how hayes is going to get any minutes at all. unless, of course, battier really spends more time playing the 2 and 3 than the 4.
I did a quick break down of predicted ppg. I did my prediction based on real ppg, not points per games played-in. Adding it all up, we're averaging around 102 ppg. That is a reasonible number if we stay healthy. Add JVG defensive schemes to that and you're a top team in both scoring and defense. RA 9 - SB 10 = CH 1 - LH 5 - JH 6 - CJ 3 + JL 1 - TM 25 + YM 22 = DM 1 - KS 6 - BW 13 = Adds up to 102. The numbers aren't too unreasonible. The plus/minus symbols are based on what the stats from last year were. I think this team will be good on the offensive end. The trick will be playing defense. The team is undersized even with the two tallest players in the game on the roster.
Rafer 31/KillBill 15/JL3 1 Tmac 23/Wells 20/Synder 5 Battier 25/Tmac 15/ Wells 8 Howard 24/Hayes 15/Battier 9 Yao 34/Deke 14 Really only a nine man rotation. Bonzi pushes Luther completely out of the rotation unless Synder is a headcase or Spanoulis is a complete bust. He either gets traded or spot minutes, sorry. Wells is energy off the bench and a huge matchup problem, especially against 2nd stringers. Hayes get minutes for his rebounding. And we'll see Wells, Tmac, and Battier on the court at the same time for decent minutes. But a lineup of Sura, Wells, Tmac, Hayes, Yao = no rebounds for the opposing team at all.
C - Yao (34), Deke (9), Juwan (5) PF - Juwan (24), Battier (19), Hayes (5) SF - Battier (18), TMac (22), Bonzi (7), Novak (1) SG - TMac (15), Bonzi (24), Snyder (7), Head (1), Span (1) PG - Rafer (32), Head (6), Lucas (5), Span (5) Roughly how I see it. I can see different matchups going down differently like if Battier can't handle Dirk, then I can see TMac on Dirk and move Battier down to guard their best sf/sg and Bonzi to guard the next best sf/sg. etc. Personally I'd like to move Howard and Head to fill in the gaps at PF/C/PG but I'm not sure either can buy us much. Yao, Battier, TMac, Bonzi, Snyder, Hayes, Novak, Span, Lucas won't be traded or can't be traded until later in the season. That only leaves Howard, Head, Rafer, Bowen and Deke. Rafer won't go unless we get a better pg in return and who would do that? Bowen's value? Deke's value? So that only leaves us Howard and Head as tradable right now so it actually may be better to wait until later in the season when we can which pieces fit and which ones don't. Of course if they don't fit on the team, their stock won't exactly be at an all time high.
You could be right for a playoff roster, but I don't think for a regular season roster. I think we are good enough that like the Spurs we can keep minutes down--Duncan played just under 35, Bowen 34, Parker 34, Manu 28, Finley 27, etc. I expect Yao, Tmac, Battier and maybe Wells to be the only players over 30MPG, and 35MPG should be the maximum. Further, I think we conserve Deke throughout the season with Howard getting half the back-up C minutes. You figure Battier playing say his career average of 32 minutes (say 24 at PF), and Howard playing 24 minutes (say 8 at C and 16 at PF), there are still 8 minutes for Hayes at PF. But all this assumes Yao-Deke-Howard-Battier-Wells-Tmac are healthy and going full tilt at the same time. If any of these 6 players are not, Hayes has more room for PT because we lose primary 5s and 4s or due to Battier picking up more smaller position minutes in the case of losing those players. What a great problem to have, not being sure if Hayes has any PT in your frontline, no?
The reason for giving Battier those minutes is because JVG will absolutely fall in love with Battier's playing style. I see Alston improving this season because the rox are lighting a match under him by having Span and Lucas as backups. Span and Lucas both will battle Alston for the starting spot. Imo, you are giving too many minutes to JHo. Our offense will be focused around Yao and TMac as a 1-2 punch and Bonzi has our 3rd option. Hence, we will not be needing a scorer at the PF position. Battier and Hayes will be solid there. Also, JHo is too old to keep up with the fours in this league. But since Deke is also growing mold, JHo will play the 5 more this season.
