Let me preface this message with saying that I was vere very much pro-Ming and that Nachbar was maybe the best player the Rockets could get at #15 (with possible exception of Kareem Rush). Having said that I am still not convinced these additions make the Rockets shoe-in for the playoffs. Ming could easily be one of those #1 picks that come in the league and average 20pts and 10rbds the first year. However, ususally these #1 pick go to such bad teams that they become the first option right away. In some regards it is easier to avg 20 and 10 on a bad team than to help a team to get to the playoffs. For bad teams, large portions of their games is garbage time where it is easy to put up big numbers. Pau Gasol could not possibly get the numbers he got last year if he was on a playoff-bound team. getting to the playoffs is about winning and winning is about making plays in the 4th quarter. For a Ming and Nachbar, that translates into making DEFENSIVE plays in the 4th quarter, since I don't think Steve and Cat will give up the ball in crunch time. So can Ming and Nachbar get you the stops in the 4th? I don't think so. For Ming the biggest challenge the first year and for his whole career perhaps, will be to stay out of foul trouble. NBA game is much faster than the international play, he'll have to majorly readjust his reaction times. (Remember, if it was not for constant foul trouble Rick Smits would have had a hall-of-Fame career, he was the most reliable weapon the Pacers had, he was just not on the floor long enough. ) Do the Rockets keep him in the 4th and risk 2 FTs every time down the court? Nachbar may look slick, but I have serious doubts about his defense. I remember Turkoglu, another slick Euro, failing miserably to stop Rick Fox on a few critical possesions in the playoffs. People don't talk about it, but those few drives by Fox, who was generally struggling this year, made the difference in the series IMO. So what changes from last year do we base our playoffs hopes on? Here's my ranking: 1. Steve being healthy. This is obviously the hugest. Unfortunateley the reports of him being irresponsible with his health do not make me feel confident. 2. The growth of Eddie. Eddie WILL be better this year, although not an All-Star kind of better. We'll have to wait for this a few more years. 3. Rice and MoTay coming back strong. Lots of question marks there. 4. Ming and Nachbar. They will still provide valuable relief in the 2nd and 3rd quarter. All in all, I am much more optimistic about the playoffs than before the draft, and before the news of Rice and Taylor getting in shape, but I would still rate rockets chances at 50% at best. there are some outstanding developments that will play into this. For example, will Seattle be able to keep Jerome james (I am taking R. Lewis for granted here)? Will the Clippers get Anre Miller or Baron Davis? Will Ford/Stoudemire be enough of a solution at PF for Phoenix?
I don't disagree with your argument or anything (I too am concerned about Nachbar's defense), but what sets Hedo apart from other Euros is that he is a very good scorer, rebounder, and defender. In my humble opinion, Turkoglu is defensively one of the best European players ever (Abdul-Wahad being the only one who is obviously far ahead of everyone else). I'm not kidding. I live in Sacramento, so I've seen him play a ton of times. With regards to Rick Fox getting by him, Hedo had two legit excuses: he had some significant back trouble going into the playoffs, and, well, he was guarding Rick Fox. Anyone can get lazy guarding him! No one expects Fox to drive! He was busy helping on Shaq and Kobe (he was actually told that he was the primary option to double on defense), and he was also expecting a big guy to help alter Fox's shot. I know Turkoglu doesn't really have much to do with your post, but I just wanted to point that out. I agree with the rest of your post! Especially about Yao's biggest concern being his reaction time. I agree completely. Good post.
Kayman: If Nachbar and Yao turn out decent scorers and realy get into games, then Steve Fancis as our leader ( POINT GUARD) must pass the ball if others are open and can take the high percentage shot. If he hogs the ball then there will be HELL to play fro RT & CD .
if we had last years team back this year. with a healthy steve, moT, and rice, we will make the playoffs. add ming and nachbar to that and whatever they give us will be a bonus. my guess is that we chace a 50 win season this year. and a 6th seed in the playoffs.
45 wins would probably help us reach the playoffs. How many was Hakeem worth 2 years ago? Maybe 5. Griffin can replace those. Ming and Nachbar are topping on the cake. What the Rockets need most is a healthy team, next year.
All the Rockets need from Ming is shot-blocking, rebounding, and occasional scoring around the basket. He does that, and you can add 15 wins to this team, because that is all they lack. Torres made an impact last year, so I think Nachbar can. Nachbar is probably only going to play about 15 minutes a night, with Griffin, Mo, and KT eating up minutes. A healthy Rice can play 30 to 35 minutes. Last year's team, at full health, I believe wins 50 games and takes Utah's spot in the playoffs. Now they have help. Look at the 45 win team. You're replacing Hakeem with Ming, and Griffin, and replacing Walt with Rice and Nachbar. Not only do you get potentially superior production, the Rockets get much better depth. Cat and Francis obviously gave up the ball in the 4th in order to win 45 games so they're not going to ball-hog. And the Rockets, banged up, were STILL hanging around in the 4th quarter last year, it was lack of offense, not defense, that killed them so getting defensive stops in the 4th isn't an issue at all either. <b>Do the Rockets keep him in the 4th and risk 2 FTs every time down the court? </b> I'm not worried about having Ming in the game down the stretch because the guy is a mid-70s to 80% FT shooter. And it doesn't matter what level you're on, high school, college, international, CBA, if you're shooting 70+% you are a very good FT shooter. <b>(Remember, if it was not for constant foul trouble Rick Smits would have had a hall-of-Fame career, he was the most reliable weapon the Pacers had, he was just not on the floor long enough. ) </b> No, INJURIES kept Smits from having a much better career. Because of his foot injuries he lacked mobility thus he was in foul trouble. When Smits played without pain, or less pain, he was quick and mobile and stayed out of foul trouble. All in all you make great points, there are some concerns. I think some of the concerns aren't as great as they appear (basically health erases a ton of them), but they are still concern. I think everything will be all right, but we'll see!
I tend to agree with the basis of most of your points. It's too early to proclaim us as contenders, but I think we can win 45-50 games and be significantly better compared to last year: 1) Healthy Stevie vs. injured Stevie of last year - This will be huge, as we lost nearly every game without him last year. Healthy, he's Top 3 PG and can help make others better. 2) Role player Cuttino vs. the man Cuttino last year - Cuttino improved in his shot selection and overall play last year, but you saw that our team had very little chance to win games when he was the one and only option. This year, he can go back to being a primary scoring option who complements the game of Stevie and the big men. 3) Healthy Rice + Nachbar vs. Walt & co. last year - any decent play from the 3 will be better than what we had last year. Rice will hopefullyy stay on the court and regain his shooting touch, while BN can come in and change the pace with his versatile game. 4) Healthy MoT + EG vs. KT last year - gives you more production from the 4 than we had with an overachieving KT last year. And from the signs of it, looks like Eddie might have a break-out year 5) Ming + Cato vs. Cato last year - Even if Ming takes his time developing, you have to admit his shooting, passing, and defensive presence along with Cato as back-up will be better than anything we got from Cato +/- Collier last year. All in all, yes, our team is basically the same as last year, but we were really decimated by the injuries last year. No Ming and Nachbar will not be on the All-Defensive team next year, but we just need contributions on defense. Nachbar has decent size and overall fundamentals. We'll judge his defense when he gets here and shows us something. either way, I can't imagine much drop-off defensively from Rice to Nachbar. Ming, undoubtedly, will have to make adjustments to the speed of the NBA game. However, even the least talented of prior giants (i.e. Manute Bol, George Mhuresan, Shawn Bradley) made a difference in the paint. He may not stop Shaq, but he'll keep the little guys out of the paint in the 4th quarter, which will be key. And don't forget, there will be a bulked up EG hanging around the paint to alter/block shots too. With good coaching, Ming will make adjustments throughout the year just in time to be a defensive force in the playoffs!
