...that you do not understand. The only disagreement I have with the article is the use of the word negligible instead of significant in one sentence. Intentional walks, which are more other-player-dependent than RBIs, affect OBP enough for the use of the word significant. I didn't know OPS was not considered a traditional stat. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2640 Context is very important in looking at stats. Back on the offtopic of Lane. In the way Dadakota used BA, it was highly appropriate. A low batting average is not a good thing for a fifth or sixth hitter. By having a low batting average, slugging percentage and on base percentage are generally both reduced. Due to Lane either having a great eye or being pitched around (I see a little of both in games, but I don't know if what actually happens on the field is taken into account by you unless ESPN.com puts it in a table), he has been able to have a much better OBP than his BA would indicate. The good OBP does not make up for the low slugging which is a direct result of a low BA. Lane has a good isolated power. Lane's problem is getting hits at a decent clip. So back to my point, I want a good BA at the fifth or sixth spot. It is my fault for not specifing that I also want good power (IsoP). I don't know of any good BA and Good IsoP players that also don't have a good OBP because they are feared, but for your benefit, a good OBP is also appreciated.
It's not like I'm going to convince you that you're wrong, you seem pretty set in your thinking... But I disagree that IBB significantly impacts OBP, I also think that getting IBB is also indicative of the player's ability mostly, and IBB are certainly not more "other player dependent" than RBIs. Your language is also wrong. Having a low BA does not "reduce" other stats. Low SLG is not a "direct result" of low BA. These stats simply reflect the player's production in various ways. A player does not have to have a high BA to be productive in any spot in the lineup. Not making outs is the most important thing for any hitter. I would gladly take a .100 hitter with a .750 OBP in the 5 or 6 hole. If you want to learn about lineup theory, do a search for Cyril Morong. He's done some great regression work dealing with different stats at various spots in the lineup. With regards to Lane specifically, his production this season leads me to believe that his low BA is an anamoly. He has improved his plate discipline, and will probably show improvement in the BA over the course of the season. Refer back to this thread in September, I think I will be validated.
An intentional walk is given to a player when the pitcher would rather face the batter behind you. Since the IBB is based on the player behind you, every IBB is heavily other player dependent. Atleast with RBIs, you can drive yourself in with a HR. IBBs can change a .325 OBP to a .315 OBP. I would call that significant and a guy with that low an OBP does not earn a IBB like say Bonds. My language is not a 100% accurate. OBP = (H + BB + HBP) /(AB + BB + HBP + SF). BA= H/AB. If BB, HBP, AB, and SF are the same for two hitters, the person with the lower BA will have less hits which result in a lower (or in my terms..reduced) OBP. I'll try to be more precise with my words. Very few players can maintain a high OBP through a year without a good BA. All the ones I've seen do it have had a great IsoP stat like Dunn. If a player isn't hitting, pitchers aren't going to walk him. Lane's OBP was going down a lot when pitchers stopped avoiding him. At the begining of the season, a lot of people (me included) expected Lane to have a great season and pitchers gave him respect early. SLG equals batting average plus isolated power. I was talking about Lane when I said "direct result". Lane has a pretty good isolated power stat. His weak slugging stat is a direct result of him not getting hits. Taveras on the other hand last year, had a good BA, but a poor isolated power. His low slugging was a direct result of him having a low isolated power stat. One good hyperbole deserves another. I'll take my guy with a .700 BA, .700 OBP, and an IsoP of .500. My guy conversely has an OPS of 2.1 to your guy who could have at most an OPS of 1.150. The 1.150 OPS is with your guy getting a hr every time he gets a hit. That would explain why he gets about 400 walks in a season. See http://www.geocities.com/cyrilmorong@sbcglobal.net/OPS.htm for the importance of OPS and its correlation to scoring runs. If you look at http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/2/12/133645/296 you can see that the hitting element is more important than the walking element in OBP for 6th hitters. You'll also note that walking percentage is least important for the #6 hitter, like Lane. This website suggests that 2 hitting percentage points are worth a little more than 3 walking percentage points for the #6 hitter. In other words, 3 BA points are worth more than 1 OBP point when talking about hitters with BAs between .200 and .400 and OBP<.500 batting 6th. You don't want a bad OBP hitter, but this site shows you should be willing to sacrifice some OBP points for a lot of BA points at the 6th spot. It also shows, you don't want Lane batting 6th due to his low BA. Any other spot in the lineup would be better suited for Lane. From this website, I will concede that BA isn't as important for a number 5 hitter as I originally thought. It is still better for them to get on base by hit at number 5, but not nearly as much so as the other power spots. Lane of last year is suited to bat 5th. Using the lineup R/G equation mkentioned earlier, my hypothetical guy would produce about 7 times as many runs as your guy from the 6th spot without taking a walk and never hitting a home run. Cyril Morong's stat isn't really designed to handle hitters so far out of the normal as our guys....so it is possible my guy could only contribute 3 or 4 times as many runs as your guy. I expect his hitting percentage will go up, too, but I also expect his walking percentage will go down. I have high hopes for Lane still, but he has to make better contact. He needs to have a more compact swing. His IsoP would go down, but his SLG, OBP, and OPS would improve greatly with him just making more contact. You can't convince me that the OBP is the be-all-end-all stat. I do acknowledge OBP is a very good stat as I have said before in this thread. It is not as good as OPS and it is not as good as good as having a lot of different stats to show a better context. Thanks for keying me onto Cyril Morong. It is some good stuff. Sorry about coming off a little passionate, but I don't like when a person incorrectly tries to correct someone. Nothing I've seen on any of Cyril Morong's pages suggest a bad BA at the 6th spot in the order is acceptable when you have reasonably close OBP. In the Astros case, Lane is only better than Taveras (much closer than it should be), Everett, and Wilson (just slightly here despite a horrendous OBP) at batting sixth statistically among Astros with >70 ABs.
The problem with saying that IBB is based on the player behind the hitter in question, is that you could conversely say that IBBs are a result of the batter being good, not the player behind him being bad. Like in the case of Bonds or Pujols, does it really matter who's behind them when they are getting IBBed alot? Rolen is usually batting after Pujols, and he's as solid hitter. Yeah I was just sort of making a point with the outlier player. I don't think OBP is an end all be all stat. I like RC, VORP, and win shares better. I just really don't like the over-emphasis on batting average. Especially the fascination with the .300 number.
Its not his fault that the team won't promote him. I think he could hit 25 homers in the big leagues if given the chance. Last year he was overwhelmed coming from AA but he looked solid when he was recalled. He should be in Astros right now at least as a pinch hitter. He isn't young and he has nothing to prove at AAA. I still can't believe Palmerio got a two year contract. I am a huge fan of Charlton Jimerson. I think he has so much abilty and it starting to produce. He will always strikeout a lot but he wll hit home rund and steal bases. So far this year he hit 14 HR's and has 19 SB. Hopefully he could be like Gary Matthews Jr.
You can't expect pinch hitters to come in and hit a home run every time. Palmeiro's a good contact hitter, which is why he is on the team. We needed somebody like that, especially with Viz leaving. A player like Luke Scott would probably have more trouble staying sharp on the bench than Palmeiro.
