Starting this thread to use as a place to store and discuss lineups and rotations and to opine on who should be playing/not playing based on both the eyeball test and data confirmation of stated opinions. First thing I want to hit upon is the success of Dwight/Capela in a double-big lineup. I advocated several weeks ago that we shouldn't play double-big except for this combination. This was prior to DMo returning. I do think that DMo could possibly become a part of a positive double-big lineup once he gets more consistent minutes. And I doubt that happens until after the trade deadline. I really think we are showcasing Terrence. And I think this data below points to that. So, here is a table of our double-big lineups so far this season, with minutes played, etc. I didn't filter this for minutes or possessions. It's just the total minutes we've played double-big combos. http://www.basketball-reference.com/pi/shareit/Gfu3V In my opinion, everything starts for us on the defensive end. We have to defend and rebound on the defensive end to be successful. Our record is currently 4-13 when we get outrebounded and 12-2 when we outrebound the opponent. Last night was an exception. The Spurs outrebounded us. However we did hold them to around 40/26 shooting percentages from 2/3 along with holding them down to 50% in the paint. So, obviously those percentages confirm what we saw out there. My theory is with the Dwight/Capela lineup you get the best defensively out of Capela. He's young, tremendously athletic, and moves really well for a 7-footer, extremely quick on his feet. While he's too immature to anchor the middle, he's great on switches and defending bigs in space. And you can see from the table with when Dwight and Capela are in there together we dominate the defensive boards, which is a huge factor for us. Below is another link for on court vs. off-court numbers for each Rockets player. I keep this link stored in my favs. And keep these numbers in mind also as I am perusing different lineups and plus/minus data. http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2016/on-off/
Eye test? Howard likes Capella out there with him; Capella likes being there with him. Brew makes good things happen when he's out there. But then he drives and finishes sideways or backways at the basket. He's more effective than believed by too many here, but needs to have his enthusiasm shared for his overall effectiveness to improve. JET is JET is not JET. Not ready to ride him nightly. Ariza = accountability. Not NBA standards on O except when his 3s drain. I actually agree on the TJo showcasing. Two good games, yes. But, so many poor ones. And how does he attract so many odd injuries? Schlamazzle Jones. GET DHo THE BALL EARLY. Please. During Hack-a's, replace CC with DMo. Please. (And maybe Howard with Thornton?) Focus. When this team does this team is lovable. But, man, do they not focus for long stretches. Eye'm done.
I'LL SAY it before people possibly get on bballholic about it - Terrence Jones doesn't work for this team. I like T Jones and think he's actually had bad luck go against him. But he's not dependable enough night in/night out Capela's utilization is showing that these days paint defense alone isnt enough for having good defense. Its not just the area at the rim, you HAVE to cover ALL the ground on the court. In effect, the paint now extends out to the 3 point line. (Itd still be nice to have Chuck Hayes be a mentoring presence for that same reason)
He's had some decent games on offense lately though, so that's positive. It would be a lot better if he were competent defensively, but you can't expect miracles to happen.
Next up, small-ball lineups. They were too numerous to paste the pic so I'm just posting a link to one page: http://bkref.com/pi/shareit/g1JtX Just a couple points here about our small-ball lineups: 1. None of the lineups has played consistent minutes together. However the two small-ball lineups that have played the most together with positive results are: Ariza/Harden/Capela/Lawson/Thornton (57.9 minutes) and Ariza/Harden/Howard/Lawson/Thornton (77.2 minutes) These are the same lineups except Capela/Howard in the middle. That probably says something about our small-ball lineups. And if you continue to scan all these lineups there is a consistently to the theme of Harden/Ariza at the 3/4 in our small-ball lineups with different combinations in the backcourt. When you get away from Harden/Ariza in the front court with one of Dwight/Capela then the small-ball lineups get very spotty and random with no discernable win scenarios. Basically what I take out of this is that we really don't have any options that are win-win options in small-ball lineups other than Harden/Ariza in the front court.
He always says that . Then when you put him in a corner to give the "perfect data" he won't reply or just beats around bush
