Lidge....

Is this going to go down as worse than the Jennings trade?

 

The guy needed a change of scenery. Most of us knew that when the trade went down. Lidge's only problem was mentally. He's got a fresh start and has let his mental worries behind. Now his talent is at the forefront.

The bad part is, he left his mental worries here in Houston, and everyone has seemed to pick them up.

 

I think the jennings trade was worse. brad lidge just needed a new start to his career, he couldnt play well here in Houston.

 

Lidge was done in houston. I wish we could have got more, but to get full value for lidge he needed to pitch well and he wasn't going to do it here.

 

...and he just made the NL All Star team.

 

yep. i'm happy for him.

and come on, this is bourn's first full season. Give him a chance.. he's got some tools clearly. I don't think he'll be Lofton..but he has a chance to be good still.

 

I doubt Lidge would have regained his form in Houston. But if you don't compare the guy we got from the trade but instead the man who replaced him as closer, I think we came out fine. Valverde has had some rought patches here and there but he's been a solid pickup. And Bourne himself hasn't been a complete bust; just his hitting.

Plus we also got Geary out of the trade didn't we; and he's been one of the better arms out of the pen.

 

There were zero mental problems with Lidge, but you guys can keep telling yourselves that to make you feel better about the move.

Lidge's problems were simple -- baseball's a game of luck. You can make the best pitches and have them golfed out for a home run, or you can throw a fat curve and the batter can pop it up. When you're a closer, your sample size is small enough (over the course of one season) that a couple of bad breaks can skew everything.

Folks, it's not mental if you throw the exact pitch you want to throw in the exact location you want to throw it, as was the case with Lidge late last season. It's a combination of luck and the hitter making a play.

Lidge's turnaround was inevitable regardless of what uniform he was in.

 

How the heck can you possibly know for certain? You keep acting like you know and everyone else is an idiot, but you do not know his mental state.

And describing his bad pitching over a long period time as "bad luck" is ridiculous. There was enough of a sample size to say that he was not pitching well at all.

 

He pitched poorly in 2006 due to very well documented mechanical problems.

He pitched generally well in 2007, with few exceptions (notably, the Braun home run and a couple others I remember) that were absolutely, absurdly terrible luck. His peripherals in both 2006 and 2007 weren't that far from 2005, another indicator that luck was a big factor.

I don't know why you and everyone else try and make this so complex. In reality, it's simple. If a pitcher has a mental problem, he'll miss his location. The pitch won't break, it won't be thrown hard enough, or he'll leave it up. Let's take the Braun home run, since that was his most dramatic failure last season. That pitch was absolutely perfect -- slider with a ton of bite, down at or below Braun's ankle, outstanding velocity. As Lidge said afterward, there's not a thing he wishes he would've done differently. It was the perfect pitch in the perfect location. Braun just hit it. That's baseball.

Players have mental issues when the results (well, what's within their control) of a pitch don't match what they intended to throw. When everything is exactly how you draw it up and the hitter just hits it... that's a combination of luck and the hitter making the play. It's not mental unless there's a mental error.

 

I'm happy for lidge, but my 'upsetness' towards management has never been higher. Only because, we did not get full value for that trade. Boston, at the trading deadline was willing to part ways with some good young talent.

 

The two aren't even comparable. The centerpieces of the Jennings deal were Taveras (.298 OBP, zero power, same subpar player as always minus one year) and Hirsh, who isn't even in the majors on a terrible team. Buchholz is having a good half-season out of the bullpen, but he was the throw-in and he's likely to revert to his career norm in time. On the other hand, Lidge is arguably the premier closer in all of baseball.

Yes, Jennings was a bust. But in all honesty, the trade wasn't that bad because the players the Astros gave up don't have much value. It's the same thing as the Villareal trade. Yes, Villareal was garbage -- but so was Josh Anderson, so the trade isn't that big of a deal.

Now, you could argue that losing Taveras led to the Astros giving away Lidge for Bourn, and you'd be partially right. However, the real culprit here is this misguided idea from the Houston front office that only speed and defense matters in CF and at the top of the lineup (Taveras/Bourn) while completely ignoring actual offensive skill (OBP, etc.). Until this organization puts more of an emphasis on OBP, the offensive inconsistency is going to continue.

 

I loved Brad Lidge....

but very few of you can criticize this trade with any credibility...because most of you spent all last season echoing over and over again that you'd trade him away for a can of beans or less.

 

Doubtful, because the Astros philosophy is not to pay closers that kind of money, so we'd likely have lost him at the end of the year anyway.

That said, the impact of the Jennings trade keeps growing. That trade led to a series of events that were basically designed to try to undo it. We traded Lidge to get Willy T v2.0 back (Willy T is having a career worst season and is still better across the board than Bourn). Then, we traded Qualls/Burke to get Lidge v2.0 back (Valverde).

Without the Jennings trade, you still have the same centerfield situation as we do today, but you also have Lidge, Qualls, Buchholz, Hirsh, and Burke. You may not want those guys, but they could have been traded for other pieces. Instead, we basically traded all 5 of them and got Valverde in return. It was just a massive loss of assets - and it's exactly why you don't trade for guys in the last year of their contract unless you believe you're one player away from being great (Randy Johnson, Carlos Beltran). Bleh.

 

You are really going to make a final verdict on Bourn during his first full season in the majors? That doesn't seem like you.

 

The Astros paid Billy Wagner quite a bit (almost identical to the extension Lidge got, accounting for inflation). They likely would be forking over the $$$ to Lidge had he maintained his effectiveness... he had the necessary intangibles to warrant Drayton opening up his wallet (an original Astros draft pick, beloved by the fans, and one of Drayton's GOB's).

It was a combination of Lidge being not as effective, and trying to boost the offense... not simply an organizational mantra of not paying for closers.

And frankly, looking at how Willy Taveras has relapsed back into a god-awful offensive player (in fact, he's playing WORSE in year 4 than he did in year 1-3)... the organization would have been forced to make a move to upgrade him eventually anyways.

 

i don't understand what the debate is about...

would any of you want brad lidge right now for 4 years, $50 million??

yeah, me neither.

 

No - certainly not. But in a comparison with Willy T, their minor league numbers were similar as well. There's just not a lot of evidence (if any) to support the idea that Bourn should be somehow substantially better than Willy. They are both poor man's versions of Juan Pierre (his minor league numbers were very similar to the other two as well - but he translated to the major better than either Willy or Bourn so far). None of those guys are particularly good offensive players. Their strength is that they are all very good defensive players and can steal lots of bases when they do get on.

 

Especially since there was a huge wave of sentiment for Willy T after his struggles in his first three years.

Granted, Willy was 3 years younger when he made his debut... but you look at both of them right now (with Willy being a year older), and they're essentially the SAME player... except that Willy is in year 4, and Bourne in year 1.