On the other hand... http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/10/23/surveyusa_obama_way_ahead_in_pennsylvania.html PA's not in play. That means McCain needs the following states: FL, OH, VA, CO, NC, NV, IN, MO. All eight of them. Obama enjoys leads in seven of them. This is over. Landslide.
I don't understand cutting ads in PA? If true that McCain has given up on Iowa and Colorado, then he HAS to break through in Pennsylvania, and that's where he's furthest behind. You have to spend there and hope that the national polls tighten and help you win FL, OH, etc. There's no point in winning FL and company if you don't get PA. Unless you're just trying to keep it close rather than win - which may be a real possibility just to avoid the blowout label.
Or he could focus on Colorado and try to run the table in the states I listed above. But he can't drop Colorado and Pennsylvania. If he has, he has already given up.
There seems to be some miscellaneous evidence that PA is closer than polls show - an internal Obama poll showed him up only 2, apparently. And the state leaders seem really concerned and basically begged him to come back to the state before the election. I'm not sure the dynamics there or why that is. I think they have basically conceded CO - their caustic "Obama is an evil terrorist-sympathizing socialist" message is not nearly as effective in the West as in the Appalachia East. So I think they are hoping to focus on that region and somehow pull out a miracle in PA. I do think that's probably his best bet.
^Yeah, I've read all that. Of course, the alleged internal Obama poll is over a week old (and even that alleged poll had Obama ahead). And there are four new polls today, each showing Obama up 10 or more in PA. If PA is McCain's best hope he pretty much has no hope at all. Of course, without PA he has to win those 8 states. Obama leads in 7. The eighth is IN where McCain leads by 0.6%. Landslide.
It's also worth noting that PA hasn't gone red since they chose Bush over Dukakis in 1988. And, in the last ten elections, PA has only voted Republican in blowout GOP victories (72, 80, 84, 88). CO, on the other hand, has only voted Dem once in the last ten elections (in 1992). It's hard for me to believe McCain has a better chance in PA than CO.
This will be interesting to see - whether Obama ends up winning by a bigger margin in PA or CO. I'm really not sure what I think will happen there. But I think McCain has a better chance due to demographics and the type of campaign to make a dent in PA than in CO.
I think that's close to happening. The fundamentals of the race were against him from the beginning, he's up against a damn good politician, he's spending days defending Palin, he can't come close to matching Obama's resources, he has too many fronts to cover, there are still a good number of his own party that aren't comfortable with him, there are too many of Obama's supporters really excited about the race, and he has no defining message that will change things. That people are starting to not only observe but also comment on the tension within the campaign is a good sign that the staff believe it is over and are starting to save themselves. Whether McCain allows himself to think this way, I don't know... but it is almost impossible to reverse such thinking when it sets in on a campaign.
It will be interesting to see where the margin is bigger. I don't have a prediction about that. Your point is well made about McCain's attacks playing better in Appalachia than the west. Meanwhile, polls (which I suspect are very unreliable in this cycle for anything but trends) clearly show a bigger Obama lead in PA. It would not surprise me at all for CO to turn out better for him but if the polls are even close to accurate, McCain doesn't have a whisper of a chance in PA. The last five polls there have Obama up 10, 10, 11, 12 and 13. Either way, McCain relying on either of these states (plus so many others in which Obama is favored) is very bad news for McCain.
This is the toughest election in the history of modern polling to handicap. Expect the unexpected, friends.
climbed a mountain and i turned around: About IBD/TIPP: An analysis of Final Certified Results for the 2004 election showed IBD's polling partner, TIPP, was the most accurate pollster of the campaign season. Learn more at www.TIPPonline.com.
Yeah, what a great poll! I'm pretty sure McCain is going to carry the 18-24 demographic by 74 percent to 22 percent.
We all know you're too chicken to bet on this, but I would say the above counts as a prediction of a McCain win. Including basso, that makes two trolls that will have egg on their faces on Nov. 4.
