OK, anyone that thinks the polls are close has got to be relying on only one source. I mean, c'mon, there's a reason why poll after poll from 15-20 legitimate, fairly reliable sources has Obama anywhere from 6% to 15% ahead. One would have to be seriously delusional to believe that somehow McCain is only 1 or 2 percentage points behind. At the same time, polls can change quickly (e.g. Carter-Reagan 1980), and polls can also be not-very-good predictors. Yet, they can also be very good predictors. Most predicted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would beat the Oakland Raiders. Most also predicted the New England Patriots would beat the New York Giants. It is likely that Obama will win, but don't count out a Hail Mary from McCain, either. The one thing we know for sure, from early voting numbers, is that this is going to be one of the highest voter turnouts, if not the highest, ever.
Claiming you don't care about America is not the same as calling you anti-American. One is apathetic the other is against it. DD
I predict that the election will be very close, maybe even as close as the Bush-Gore vote. There will be no landslide in either direction. Poll sampling is highly dubious, both in numbers and non-random selection of respondents. I also predict a record voter turnout, maybe an all time record. This usually favors Democrats, but I think in this case it will favor Republicans. It is going to be a very interesting night.
Not at all trying to be argumentative... Why do you think higher turnout will favor Republicans this time when history shows it to be the other way around?
This is interesting - what makes you think this? For what it's worth, the 2 non-polled factors and the 1 semi-polled factor all suggest Dems would outperform: 1. Ground game - this isn't accounted for in polling, but all measures seem to suggest the Dems have a substantial advantage in ground game this year. 2. While polling measures "likely voters", it doesn't measure "how likely" voters. All the enthusiasm gaps favor the Dems this year. 3. The likely voter models tend to use historical patterns. But for various reasons, young voters and black voters are expected to come out in record high levels this year. Both of those groups favor Dems. I think at the end of the day, Obama will outperform his polling.
Ground game is a fancy word for all of the infrastructure Obama has invested in over the past year in terms of a volunteer work force and direct voter-to-voter contact through campaign offices across the country. I really think the Obama infrastructure is going to become a basic part of Elections 101 class in the future. It's incredible how expansive and sophisticated it is. ACORN, on the other hand, is a stupidly run organization. ACORN registering Mickey Mouse doesn't really help Obama unless Mickey Mouse actually shows up at the polls and votes. It does, of course, help the idiot ACORN employee who had a quota to meet in terms how many people he or she needed to register. That organization is messed up - the incentive structure was horribly designed, and the results should have been predictable.
What is stupid is that under the present "system" we don't have civil servants registering people. Why should an extremely underfunded organization like ACORN be the ones trying to register these voters? Incumbents of both parties, but particularly the GOP who fear increased registration by poorer people want it that way. Maybe this a reform Obama can make, though the GOP will fight every step of the way-- as they have with letting non-partisan groups register at VA hospitals. All ACORN can do is fire the person who registers "Mickey Mouse" and then they are obligated to turn the card in to the County Clerks.
Fifty percent of potential voters don't vote, many aren't even registered. It would not be unreasonable to assume that these voters don't participate in polls. What if the disinterested get interested? No one knows what would happen. I said, that higher voter turn out usually favors democrats, but, record voter turnout is a question mark. I still say it is going to be close. If it isn't I will be surprised, many of you will be right, so what? I am not that ego invested in my opinions, they are just opinions.
I'm not understanding what you're saying. The polls already ask whether voters are registered - and they both provide those results as well as their filtered "likely voter" results. Are you suggesting people are going to vote that aren telling pollsters they aren't registered to vote? Sorry - I'm just not clear what you're saying might happen.
I have said it before but it bares repeating..... None of these national tracking polls take an accurate accounting of the younger vote which is decidedly Obama. And they are motivated to vote, I don't think it is as close as the polls are showing... DD
^I tend to think it's a lack of resources. It's too early to give up completely. And if McCain has truly given up hope in PA and CO, he has effectively forfeited the election and is just trying to keep it from being too embarrassing.
