Iraqi soldiers defecting Morale is low in the Iraqi army and many soldiers are preparing white flags of surrender, we are told by someone in northern Iraq who recently interviewed two defectors from Saddam Hussein's army. One was a captain who defected from the 5th Mechanized Division of the 1st Corps, based near the northern city of Kirkuk. The captain told our informant that the heavy division was only 35 percent combat-effective. The captain said morale was so low that younger soldiers are speaking openly about surrendering — before the first shot has been fired. A second soldier, a senior noncommissioned officer, defected from the same division's 34th Brigade, based south of the northern city of Mosul. This soldier said that of the 28 tanks in his care, only six were working. The others were broken down or otherwise in need of repair. "He said the whole division was at about 25 percent effectiveness and most soldiers were hiding their white flags," said our source, who spoke recently to both defectors. Intelligence sources in northern Iraq, where both CIA Special Operations Group officers and Army Special Forces are active, said there have been dozens of defectors in the past several weeks. There also are reports that Saddam's henchmen have issued orders to commanders to shoot any deserters they can catch. ----
We are definitely hoping for most of their army to surrender quickly for this war to end quickly. It is obvious that only the most loyal, like the Republican Guard, will by loyal to Saddam once war starts. In the end, the question is who would want to die for Saddam after all the bad things he has done? Certainly not forced volunteers in the Army or the Iraqi people. I can pretty much guarantee you Iraqis will be celebrating in the streets same as Afghanis did once their liberated. Freedom will do that to you. They will probably be breaking out the satellite dishes and reading foreign newspapers cause they don't have a clue what is going on in the world. The Iraqi Army would be stupid to turn this into urban warfare. They would only be hurting themselves and their civilians. Sure, they may kill more Americans but does one really want to kill one's liberators? I can't wait for this to be over. Iraq has been hanging over America's head for over a decade. This needs to be over so everyone can get on with their lives. Screw prolonging weapons inspections...that will take years at the rate of cooperation their receiving. It will never end then. I think everyone is just ready for this to be over. How much longer can this go on?
I hear you, Surfguy, but we're kidding ourselves if we think this ends when they surrender and we get Hussein. If you ask me, that's when the hard part starts... Occupying another country that doesn't exactly love us, trying to build its infrastructure, promote a new democratic government. Sheesh. Brain surgery would be a lot easier. Would be a nice start if it's just mass surrender though.
Maybe some of those human shields can get off their butts and help the soldiers make some more white flags.
Bob, I don't agree with you assesment. I think that the majority of the Iraqi people would welcome occupation to get rid of the regime that they have suffered under for some 20 odd years. My guess is that as long as we improved the average Joe's, or Azim's way of life that they would be happier. Now if we stay for a long time, all bets are off, but if we build them a better country, I am sure they would not mind. DD
I hope they do surrender so that we don't have drop bombs on the cities and towns. I agree with Bob on the hard part beginning with occupation. This isn't gonna be like Afghanistan where we worked to put the country back into the hands of the Afghani's. If I remember correctly, Bush's plan calls for Iraq to be under the control of a general, an ambassador, or a US governor. Also, didn't his plan call for like 5 years of occupation? Somebody knows the specefics and I hope they'll post it, but I'm sure that the plan calls for a few years of occupation.
Someone call my name? Frankly, I see little evidence for Iraq being all roses after this imminent war is over. Just look at some history; In the 1970s, America double-crossed the Kurds by letting the Shah of Iran make a deal with Saddam. Then in 1991, Papa Bush let Saddam butcher them, along with the Shiite minority. Now, the younger Bush is sacrificing the Kurds for the Turks. Turkey is going to join this war in return for its troops entering the autonomous Kurdish region, where the elected assembly likely will be a victim of the new Iraqi order. Also keep in mind that the President has jilted the foreign-based anti-Saddam democratic front. So American commanders, not Iraqi commanders, will rule post-Saddam Iraq. It will be American-backed Ba'athism, not democracy. I just pray that history does not repeat itself and we can truly say the people of Iraq are 'liberated'. Azim da Dream
It is the Republican Guard that we have to worry about. Numbering in the 200 thousands, they've been trained on nationalism and Saddam loving. They will be out there to prove a point to the world that the Iraqis don't back down in a man to man fight. Which is why they will most likely pull back into the cities so that coalition forces can't use their air and armor superiority on them (the major reason we won the first war). On a sidenote, it is probably why the US hasn't signed and is against the newly inaugurated International Criminal Court. We would have to bomb their civilian infrastructure (hospitals, water and power systems) just like the first war. And possibly commit other questionable acts on or over the border of war crimes against humanity. About the people....we have to worry about the ones living in the cities. Take Baghdad, a city larger than LA, for example. If 10% (~400,000) of the people living there are middle class to wealthy, they have the most to lose. They probably don't mind Saddam because he has fulfilled his promise of a good life to them. They also love their country as much as we do and share pride in their culture. They will buy into their state owned media as much as some of us has to our cable channels. And they will most likely defend their country with some degree of resistance to these foreign invaders with no clear intentions on the future of their homeland. One misstep by us will incite a mob with grisly consequences. I also want this to end...war seems inevitable...saddam will be the first to fall...a draft isn't out of the question. But I fear the aftermath and its consequences. I wonder of the American lives we will lose in this war and the Iraqi civilians who will die as well. I wonder if we can place a genuine leader who strives to improve his country even though he has lived in an environment where stabbing someone's back is the only way to survive, get ahead, and to proves one's leadership skills to his peers. I wonder what other countries will think of us in the aftermath, whether they will support us financially and in spirit. I wonder what this will do to our economy and whether there will be more wars to come in that region. Al Qaeda seems so distant to me. But we're now on level Yellow, so somethings getting better. Isn't it?
Because Afghanistan already has a government of Afghanis in place, Does the name Hamed Karzai ring a bell. Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the Bush plan call for an American to be incharge of the country?
Just want to clear a few things up here: 1) Several high-ranking Iraqi military officers who have escaped Iraq recently have claimed that morale is even crumbling within the Republican Guard units, and many of them (though not all) are likely to surrender as well. 2) There are not 200,000 Republican Guards, there are actually two different RG 'levels' or types, plus the Iraqi secret service. The RG consists 60,000 to 80,000 troops (divisions are glaringly understrength, but not known exactly how much) in 7 'regular' RG divisions plus 4 brigades of Special Repulican Guard - Saddam's personal security force. Actually this number is probably smaller, and there are only 5 RG divisions, because two of them were totally destroyed during the 1991 ground offensive. These divisions are nowhere near as competent as ours; I wouldn't give the Iraqis a chance if they threw all of their RGs against one US division. Saddam's SS - the Mukhabarat - numbers around 5,000, and they may be difficult to root out. Probably no more than 35-40,000 of these troops can actually be expected to fight (or try to), as their equipment, training and morale are all judged to be in bad shape (although far better than the regular army's). 3) We are *not* going to extensively bomb civilian infrastructure. If you think we will then you haven't been paying attention to some of the new toys we've got - didn't even have in Afghanistan. We can now disable many infrastructure elements without destroying them (or killing anyone), and in many cases in the coming war we are just going to leave civilian infrastructure alone. We will leave it alone wherever militarily possible. 4) We are not going to be dragged into a huge urban street battle. Saddam of course desires this, but since when do we play by his rules? It will not be necessary anyway. Once he has A) lost his means of communications with his military and political levers of power, B) lost his oilfields and sources of revenue and funds, and C) lost control of his army, it will just be a matter of time before he falls. There is no need to send in the whole freaking 101st to ferret him out and battle house to house with his goons. That said, though, where good intelligence produces timely and worthwhile targets, we won't hesitate to send in the troops in raids. Otherwise, it makes more sense to just surround Baghdad and Tikrit and wait. That is unless we've got a surprise... Couple of articles: The Plan for Postwar Iraq - http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A14198-2003Feb27.html What Iraqis Think - http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/comment-taheri022603.asp Carry on.
