I was watching a special called Saddam and his Arsenal on the history channel last night and it put a few things in perspective for me about a worst possible scenario that could play out during the upcoming war. During the last Gulf War Saddam lauched scuds everywhere and a few of them managed to hit including one in particular in Tel Aviv. When the missle first hit there were reports that the missle contained the chemical weapon Sarin and people were being evacuated. Upon hearing the news Israel's leader Sharon was ready to retaliate with a nuclear strike against Iraq. Bush urged him to hold off on the immediate nuclear response and make sure that it was in fact a chemical weapon that was launched. Luckily the reports of the missle containing sarin gas was false for both the people of Tel Aviv and Baghdad. This is a very plausible scenario that could play out this time and why wouldn't it? The only reason Saddam chose not to use any weapons of mass destruction during the Gulf War was because of the promise from America that he would be overthrown if he decided to use them. This is the plan now so there is absolutely no reason for him to hold anything back. Reports have said that if Saddam knew he was about to be overthrown he will want to make his mark in Arab lore by conducting a devistating attack on Israel and become a hero to his people. I am in favor of overthrowing and disarming Saddam but this type of scenario has me a little nervous. The lose of civilian life would be devistating for both Israel and Iraq. I also have the feeling that America would be looked at as responsible for this around the world and anti-Ameirican sentament will reach unthinkable levels. I know this is pessamistic but it was just something that was weighing on my mind last night. Any thoughts?
Well, he has nothing to lose, so he's going to throw everything but the kitchen sink at us. This is a fight to the death and that kind of war is nuttin but ugly.
Hard to believe that Israel would retaliate with a nuclear strike when American soliders are in Iraq fighting a war, which would be the likely case during this war. We're not as likely to have a couple of weeks of an air-only war this time around just based on the different desired outcomes of the different wars. But certainly it's not a completely outlandish scenario.
Sharon already said that if Saddam attacks, Israel will retaliate, regardless of what we say. It is scary, I have neglected to think about that scenario lately. Though I have heard that Saddam's arsenal doesn't include any missles that can reach Israel anymore.
Did anyone watch that 60 minutes interview on Sunday with that former Iraqi general? He said that they were building underground tunnels under Iraq in order to stockpile and hide his weapons from the inspectors. In the event of war, he could move troops underground and inflict casualties on the coalition troops when they get into Baghdad. He said that Saddam is a big fan of the historic WW2 battle of Stalingrad where Hitler invaded Stalingrad only for the Soviets to burn the city down to the ground in the up coming winter. The general went on to say that once they inflicted enough casualties upon the troops, he would level Baghdad into rubble with everyone in the city.
