I have to admit...Iran is really good at playing their games and making the big powers look bad. Anyone with half a brain saw their latest move coming when it was announced that Brazil's president was coming to Iran as a final move to discuss the nuclear issues before the new sanctions were formally proposed. Their latest move is to transport low enriched uranium to Turkey and let them hold on to it until such time as processed fuel rods are provided at which time Turkey will release the uranium to the power providing the fuel rods. If I had to guess, then I will think the US and some of the other big powers will try to downplay this move as not good enough and still push for sanctions. I believe the primary reason will be because Iran decided to enrich uranium to higher levels (20 percent) on their own regardless. This was decided by them after the initial swap deal was already on the table. The original goal of the deal was so that Iran wouldn't be enriching to higher levels themselves and they would not have enough low enriched uranium on hand to divert to a possible nuclear weapon program. I will be shocked if the major powers come out and say we can work with this Turkey deal. After all, the whole point was that Iran did not need to enrich at higher levels if others could do it for them. Since they decided to do this on their own anyway, there really is not much to be gained. Everyone knows they can still build the bomb if they really want to...even with this deal.
They are brilliant strategists/tacticians, they have proven it thus far. Probably the best in the region since Israel has been off its game as of late. Those who understand or have studied advanced aspects of international relations, particularly game theory, are easily impressed by the Iranians. For one thing, Iran has managed to out-maneuver the entire Arab world, Israel and even the U.S. up to this point. Their strategy has created a credible enough deterrent even without nukes, mostly because they have managed to hold the entire region hostage and, frankly, no one wants to risk it at this point, knowing fully well Iran has the means and intent to deliver on their threats. They have played the game quite well. Assuming everyone involved is a rational actor, containment is probably the only option left, and U.S. strategists seem to be fully aware of that fact, which is what the call for crippling sanctions is all about.
And they may have scored another coup against the USA/Arab world/Israel/EU-led efforts for more sanctions through their backdoor deal with Turkey and Brazil earlier today. Sure, the USA/Arab allies/Israel/EU may not fully agree to those terms when they get a chance to review them, but the whole point is Iran got two strategic giants in their own rights to go on record saying there was now no need for further sanctions, therefore undermining the legitimacy of the entire process. My guess is Russia and China will soon chime in and also approve of this trilateral deal and declare sanctions a non-starter, which would effectively kill it (not that they have been entirely cooperative up to this point, but judging by their rhetoric alone, they have been looking for a reason to opt-out for a while now, and this is probably their golden opportunity to do so). Iran is serving some serious PWNAGE of its own as of late. These geostrategic chess games can be absolutely fascinating at times.
Not so much in Iran's favor, the Sunni financed Civil War in Iraq when the USA finishes pulling out is still on schedule for next year. Essentially, within 2 years Iran will be fighting a full scale proxy war in Iraq against Saudi money.
Seriously brilliant move. I was extremely impressed when I heard about this. Props to Tukey and Brazil as well.
It is disheartening really, but I will begrudgingly admit that Iran has been successful in dividing the world over its nuclear program and has probably done enough for even if sanctions are imposed, they will be so watered down that they will be ineffective and largely symbolic in nature, it is the only way a sanctions package will be passed with Russia and China involved. If Turkey is not onboard it could be a problem, I guess Israel will just have to live with a belligerent Iran for a while.
Mmmm, I haven't really thought about it that way. What's the difference between what they've done and what was proposed? (significant?) I think this is a very good step for the world powers to get the core of what they want and Iran to maintain its reputation as a sovereign nation. To me, there is no danger with the whole thing, except the regime itself. No matter where they put the stuff, or what they do with it, I wouldn't trust them to be telling the truth. In my view, if a nation wants to pursue nuclear capabilities, by all means they should go ahead assuming they've demonstrated a sense of responsibility. But since this standard has not been enforced properly, I don't think anyone has a right to stop Iran from doing it. All that can be done now is peacefully support change. Eventually the scores of young people in Iran will do what's necessary to bring about change. For the time being though, this was a fair move for everyone. A good, positive step. I would find it silly for anyone to impose sanctions now. It would make them look very childish, much like the Iranian government were looking throughout.
