Improvement Index - Week 2

Tb-Cain · Nov 13, 2001

Here are the results after two weeks. Again, each team gets +1 for beating a team that was ahead of them in the standings last year and a -1 for losing to a team that was behind them.

<TABLE BORDER=0 CELLSPACING=0 CELLPADDING=3><TR BGCOLOR=SILVER ALIGN=CENTER><TD COLSPAN=2>Improvement Index - 11/13/2001</TD></TR><TR BGCOLOR=SILVER ALIGN=CENTER><TD>Team</TD><TD>Rating</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#99CC99><TD>Warriors</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>+5</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#99CC99><TD>Nuggets</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>+3</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#99CC99><TD>Twolves</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>+3</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#99CC99><TD>Rockets</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>+1</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#EEEE99><TD>Clippers</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#EEEE99><TD>Grizzlies</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#EEEE99><TD>Lakers</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#EEEE99><TD>Mavericks</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#FF9999><TD>Blazers</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-1</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#FF9999><TD>Kings</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-1</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#FF9999><TD>Sonics</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-1</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#FF9999><TD>Spurs</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-2</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#FF9999><TD>Jazz</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-3</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#FF9999><TD>Suns</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-3</TD></TR></TR></TABLE>
I think the index is more telling for those teams in the middle of the pack. San Antonio can only have a negative rating, while Chicago could only have a positive rating.

smoothie · Nov 13, 2001

it's called regression to the mean. if a team won 60 games last year they are not likely to do it again. they may get 58 wins and go farther into the playoffs, but finnish -2 on your board. if a team won only 15 games they connnot likley be any worse this year, so they win 20 games and still finnish at the bottom of the conference with no improvement.

Achebe · Nov 13, 2001

so smoothie, is the second scenario labeled 'progression to the mean'? ba-dom-dom.

bobrek · Nov 13, 2001

With your chart it is impossible for the Spurs to be on the + side. For instance, they could go 80-2 and their final total will be -2 since they did not beat anyone ahead of them and their only 2 losses had to come from teams behind them.

In the same vein if the Bulls win 10 games all year (they won 15 last year) they would get a +10 since all of their victories come against teams ahead of them and non of their losses come against teams behind them.

Or am I missing something?

Tb-Cain · Nov 20, 2001

Here's week 3's update:

<TABLE BORDER=0 CELLSPACING=0 CELLPADDING=3><TR BGCOLOR=SILVER ALIGN=CENTER><TD COLSPAN=2>Improvement Index - 11/20/2001</TD></TR><TR BGCOLOR=SILVER ALIGN=CENTER><TD>Team</TD><TD>Rating</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#99CC99><TD>Warriors</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>+5</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#99CC99><TD>Nuggets</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>+4</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#99CC99><TD>Twolves</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>+2</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#99CC99><TD>Rockets</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>+2</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#99CC99><TD>Clippers</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>+1</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#99CC99><TD>Grizzlies</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>+1</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#FF9999><TD>Lakers</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-1</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#FF9999><TD>Kings</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-1</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#FF9999><TD>Mavericks</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-2</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#FF9999><TD>Sonics</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-2</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#FF9999><TD>Blazers</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-2</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#FF9999><TD>Spurs</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-2</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#FF9999><TD>Suns</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-4</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#FF9999><TD>Jazz</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-5</TD></TR></TR></TABLE>

To answer bobrek's question, you're exactly right and that's exactly what I said in the initial post. If San Antonio loses 30 games, they will be -30 and probably the least improved team (according to the index), which makes sense. You can't improve from the "best".

Tb-Cain · Nov 27, 2001

Week 4:

<TABLE BORDER=0 CELLSPACING=0 CELLPADDING=3><TR BGCOLOR=SILVER ALIGN=CENTER><TD COLSPAN=2>Improvement Index - 11/27/2001</TD></TR><TR BGCOLOR=SILVER ALIGN=CENTER><TD>Team</TD><TD>Rating</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#99CC99><TD>Warriors</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>+6</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#99CC99><TD>Nuggets</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>+4</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#99CC99><TD>Twolves</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>+3</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#99CC99><TD>Grizzlies</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>+2</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#99CC99><TD>Clippers</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>+1</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#99CC99><TD>Rockets</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>+1</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#EEEE99><TD>Sonics</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#FF9999><TD>Lakers</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-1</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#FF9999><TD>Kings</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-2</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#FF9999><TD>Blazers</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-3</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#FF9999><TD>Mavericks</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-3</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#FF9999><TD>Spurs</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-3</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#FF9999><TD>Suns</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-3</TD></TR></TR><TR BGCOLOR=#FF9999><TD>Jazz</TD><TD ALIGN=CENTER>-7</TD></TR></TR></TABLE>

One way to view this index is as a reverse standings. The Spurs should be at the bottom, since they can't improve. While the Warriors should be at the top, since they can only improve.

That said, it sure is sweet seeing Utah at the bottom...

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Improvement Index - Week 2

Tb-Cain Member

smoothie Jabari Jungle

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bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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