Well, I am here to claim responsibility for my prediction that the Stros would lose 100 games. I was wrong. They put together a decent couple of streaks and it's not going to happen. So, all you guys that said I was wrong and that the Stros would win somewhere between 70-80 games, you are right. My dire prediction was based on two simple premises: 1. Lack of pitching 2. The hiring of Ed Wade who did a rebuild job in Philly. I still don't think we have any pitching outside of Oswalt. I know Wandy has had a good year for Wandy. And Moehler has been better than expected. But does anybody think these guys can do it in the playoffs? Or does anybody even think we can push for the wild card with these guys? I don't see it, this year, next year, or the year after that. Maybe Wade is gonna pull a Morey and pick up a top 3 rotation type pitcher for nothing this offseason and maybe one of these other guys will round into a top 3 rotation pitcher and we'll have a great top 3. I don't know. But I don't see how. I still maintain that we should have unloaded and rebuilt and gone ahead and lost 100 games, get another stellar draft pick that we can plug in immediately and play, maybe a stellar pitcher that we can get to the bigs quick. I see mediocrity as death. Not good enough to win anything. Not bad enough to be able to get to the top of the draft and get a talent we can plug in and play and not bad enough to unload some huge contracts for some young prospects that we can bring up and plug in. Rebuilding a team in MLB these days is a one to two year process. It's not like the old days when building a team took 3-5 years. If you make the right deals, you can load up and go to war in a year or two, especially if you can then add back a free agent player or two to go along with a young core. This is what Ed Wade specializes in. And....maybe they pushed back the rebuild until the offseason. But what I see if they are doing that is a great opportunity missed to get a top draft choice. If we finish with 75-80 wins, we are going to be middle of the pack first round. We could have been 1 or 2 at the top of the draft. I just don't see where doing nothing and continuing on with a mediocre season is in the long term best interest of this team.
Pitching is still very important, but I think it's been overrated a tad. I think Bill James says pitching is 52% and offense is 48%. A lot of people would be surprised to hear those numbers. Look at the team we're playing now, the Arizona Diamondbacks. They have Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, and Randy Johnson, and yet their record is identical to ours. Also consider that we're in a much tougher division than theirs (D-Backs in first place!?). Their pitching stats are better than ours, and the offensive stats are about the same between them and us (we've scored like 6 more runs than them total). I think it's interesting that we're #1 in fewest errors committed in the NL. That doesn't single handedly make a team decent, but those are the little things that can prevent a team from winning a game. I think another reason we're not going to lose 100 games is the NL is really mediocre.
With unbalanced scheduling I completely disagree...it's not as if we're loading up with lots of games against the NL West. In our division, we have the NL's top 3 teams by record in Chicago, Milwaukee and St. Louis. That's ridiculous and we play umpteen games against those 3 opponents, alone. We're not going to lose 100 games because it's rare to lose 100 games. Only one team in baseball is on pace to lose 100 games this season...the Nats. The Padres are close. I'm sorry but this team isn't that bad. IN THE ASTROS HISTORY THEY'VE NEVER, EVER, NEVER LOST 100 GAMES IN A SEASON. That they would do so this year is beyond reason.
I don't think you realized (maybe still don't) how downright awful you have to be to lose 100 games. There are only 2 teams in the majors on pace to do that. Even at their worst, the Astros were never going to get there.
Agreed. Good points. There was no way we lose 100 games, but I didn't see us being over .500 at this point either. But we do get to load up on the Reds and now the Pirates without Bay and Nady. Even though the schedule is unbalanced, our current streak is a result of playing the Reds and Giants. The good teams take care of business, so this streak does show that we are at least decent, not very bad like I thought. We are overachieving. Brewers and Cardinals are top teams record wise, but they have shown this season that they are beatable. They're just not very consistent, and the fact that those two teams are still that highly ranked in the NL indicates a weak league IMO.
wherever they finish after 162 games, that's what they are. that's why they play 162 games. i'm sorry, but a team with that lineup and sabathia and sheets at the top of the rotation is a very, very good team...and i think their record will show that. they'd more than hold their own in the AL.
A "very, very good team" doesn't get swept at home in a 4 game series to ANY team, especially considering that Sheets and Sabathia were pitching in that Cubs series. Brewers might be hot now, but that sweep raised a red flag in my eyes. We'll see what happens in the playoffs assuming they get there.
If this team really had tanked it and lost 100 games in order to get a higher draft pick, the backlash from the fans would be so great the team would be years, maybe even as long as a decade, recovering. The Astros have been one of the most consistently good teams for over a decade now, and really only since 2005's World Series appearance has it seemed like this city is finally making the transformation into a "Baseball City". The team is very mediocre this season and fans are still showing up at a 30,000+ clip. That's a good sign that Houston finally really cares about this team, win or lose. Pissing all over that love affair would be the worst thing they could do. I'm not saying that means trade away potential assets for retreads like Randy Wolf...just don't give up.
are you kidding??? the 2004 red sox lost 5 games in a row on their way to a championship. the 2005 White Sox lost 7 games in a row in August before winning the championship i wont' pretend the 2006 cardinals were a very, very good team the 2007 red sox lost 4 games in a row 3 different times in their season on their way to a championship. the 2008 angels have the best record to date in MLB...they've already lost 4 in a row. this is major league baseball...teams get swept by lesser teams all the time...in this case, it was a team getting swept by a hotter team.
Since nobody has said it, good for you. It is nice that you would stand up and admit you were wrong. Quite a few people make that sort of claim and disappear from the face of the earth when wrong.
Agreed...Kudos...Hell, I didn't think they'd have a shot at the playoffs, but they have a long shot at the wild card, but anything can happen...
The Astros may as well have lost 100 games this season. They are mired in mediocrity and don't have much to build on (i.e. call up) for the future. I'm still mad Hunsicker was let go and Purpura was allowed to crash the franchise. Next season, the jobs of Ed Wade and Cecil Cooper will be on the line. 12 months from now (even if the Astros aren't winning a lot of games), there should be a clear path and purpose for where the franchise is headed. The recent winning is fine and dandy, but they do not have a realistic chance of catching the Brewers. If they open the season next year with a deeply flawed team and try to sell it as a contender, I'm gonna completely ignore them.
I know some of you feel this way..but count me out. There is a huge difference to me between what would be the worst season in franchise history and what I've seen this season. Ultimately, this is about entertainment.
That might be true during the regular season, but in the playoffs pitching is MUCH more important than hitting. Even a team like Arizona that struggles in the regular season will surprise people in the postseason. It's all about (1) shutting the opposing team down, and (2) Situation hitting. You have to have an amazing offense (or a really hot offense) to overcome bad pitching.
Max, what do you suggest the future holds for this team in terms of being contenders once more? We need to start putting some pieces back into the farm system and we still need a pretty decent amount of work in terms of having a respectable starting pitching staff.
My prediction was based on the fact that I knew this was a mediocre nonplayoff, noncontending team. I thought Ed Wade was brought in here to rebuild and win a championship. I fully expected Oswalt, Valverde, Tejada, and perhaps Lee to be gone by the trade deadline for prospects. With those guys gone, 90-100 losses becomes a lot more recognizable in light of our mediocre to poor pitching. By the way, if you don't think high draft choices make an immediate impact, go back and look at the last few drafts. Yes, pitchers take longer to develop, granted. But we need to stock up on young pitching talent. Our system is depleted of any real outstanding pitching prospects. We need a top draft pick to grab some of those type of arms. By the way, James make break it down 52/48 in favor of pitching/hitting, but when you go to the playoffs and if you are going to win a World Series, you have to have THREE front line ace type pitchers. Not one, not two, but three guys that can go out there back to back to back and keep you in the game all the way through. Look at the past WS winners. Pitching is a lot more important than 52/48 come playoff time when you have to win every series you play in.
